The Erawan Group Public Company Limited

Kasikorn Securities said the government is preparing to launch the Thai Teaw Thai Plus programme on 1 October to stimulate domestic tourism, targeting total tourism revenue of 3 trillion baht within four years. For 2026, revenue is expected to be close to the previous year at 2.7 trillion baht, with around 33 million foreign tourists, while moving towards high-value tourism and using data and artificial intelligence to upgrade marketing. The research team views this as positive for tourism, hotel, airline, airport and retail sectors, especially Airports of Thailand, Central Plaza Hotel, The Erawan Group, Minor International and Asset World Corporation, if the measures help stimulate domestic travel and spending in the fourth quarter of 2026 as expected.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand revealed that from 1 January to 15 August 2026, cumulative foreign tourist arrivals exceeded 19 million, generating revenue of 957.618 billion baht. The top five source markets were China with 3.33 million visitors, Malaysia with 2.50 million, India with 1.46 million, Russia with 1.14 million, and South Korea with 729,000. For the second half of 2026, the public and private sectors will host world-class events such as the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings 2026 in Bangkok from 12 to 18 October 2026, with participants from 191 countries, as well as Tomorrowland Thailand and Wonderfruit 2026 in Pattaya, Chonburi province, which are expected to draw large numbers of international attendees. Traditional events such as Loy Krathong and countdown celebrations will also be held across many areas nationwide. For the 2027 target, the Tourism Authority of Thailand aims for foreign tourist arrivals to grow by no less than 5% from 2026, when arrivals are expected to reach 33 million, while spreading tourists to primary and secondary cities in a 60 to 40 ratio and pushing the loyalty index into the top three in Asia. Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, expects group-wide RevPAR in the third quarter of 2026 to rise 3 to 5% year on year, with the fourth quarter of 2026 continuing to improve, as advance bookings for October 2026 are higher than the same period last year. For 2026, the company expects an occupancy rate of 70 to 75%, RevPAR of 4,200 to 4,400 baht, and total joint venture revenue growth of 3 to 5%, or 14.2 to 14.5 billion baht. The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, or ERW, assesses that its business in the second half of 2026 will grow better than the first half thanks to the high season and national events that stimulate travel, while maintaining its 2026 total revenue growth target of 9% year on year, split between 7% growth in the luxury-to-economy hotel segment and 14% growth in the budget segment, or HOP INN. Analysts at Yuanta Securities Thailand expect third-quarter 2026 performance to recover from the second quarter of 2026 and beat the same period last year despite the low season, with momentum continuing into the fourth quarter of 2026 as the high season begins. They also expect government stimulus measures such as the Rao Tiew Duay Kan or Kon La Khrueng schemes, which the Ministry of Tourism and Sports is expected to propose to the cabinet in time for the year-end high season. Analysts continue to recommend stock selection on a company-by-company basis, advising investors to buy CENTEL because its food business is not heavily affected while its hotel business still shows improving RevPAR, supporting investment opportunities through 2027, and also recommend buying ERW and MINT.

Bualuang Securities and Krungsri Securities expect third-quarter 2026 net profit of listed companies to expand from the same period last year. KCE is projected to see printed circuit board delivery volumes rise, with average selling prices up 9 to 10 percent, lifting PCB revenue by 17 to 19 percent. CBG expects domestic energy drink sales to grow 10 percent and sales in Myanmar to jump 70 percent. ITC forecasts July to August sales up 10 percent from a year earlier and 7 percent from the previous quarter. In the hospital group, BH and BDMS expect July revenue to return to growth on Thai and Middle Eastern patients. The tourism and airport group, AOT and CENTEL, continues to show solid momentum, with July revenue per available room up 26 percent for AWC, 8 percent for CENTEL, 5 percent for ERW, and 4 percent for MINT. GPSC is supported by a full quarter of profit recognition from the GHECO-One and Glow IPP power plants. Krungsri Securities assesses that the electronic components group, led by KCE and HANA, is growing strongly both year on year and quarter on quarter. SCGP is expected to see profit recover on higher selling prices, strong sales volumes, and benefits from supply chain disruptions.

Bualuang Securities said second-quarter 2026 results for the tourism sector were stronger than the soft tourist arrival numbers suggested, with combined core profit rising 3% year on year to 7.76 billion baht and mostly beating expectations. For the third quarter of 2026, it expects combined core profit to still grow 3% year on year. Although the headline figure looks modest because of the large profit bases at Airports of Thailand and Minor International, which are expected to grow only 4% and 1% year on year respectively, the recovery in hotel stocks is clearer. It expects The Erawan Group to rise 28% year on year, while Asset World Corp and Central Plaza Hotel are each expected to rise 10% year on year. Leading indicators in the third quarter so far support that picture. July revenue per available room rose 26% year on year for Asset World Corp, 8% for Central Plaza Hotel, about 5% for The Erawan Group and 4% for Minor International. Asset World Corp also has booked room revenue for the second half of 2026 that is 30% higher than a year earlier, while The Erawan Group's August bookings improved from the previous month. Overseas, Maldives tourist arrivals swung from a 2% year-on-year decline in July to an 11% year-on-year increase in August, which is positive for Central Plaza Hotel, while the recovery is spreading more broadly across Northeast Asia and long-haul markets. Bualuang Securities maintained its 2026 foreign tourist arrival forecast at 31.9 million, down 3.3% year on year, after the first half of 2026 came in at 16.2 million, down 3.2% year on year. That means the second half of 2026 would need to fall about 3.3% year on year, which is still in line with the forecast. If second-half 2026 arrivals are flat year on year, there is a chance the full-year figure could be revised up to about 32.4 million, down 1.6% year on year. It kept its 2027 forecast at 34.0 million, up 6.6% year on year. The key point is that this recovery is more value-led than volume-led. Average spending per tourist rose 7% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 and 15% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 to 52,918 baht per person, helped by longer stays and a higher share of higher-spending long-haul tourists. That means tourism revenue and hotel profits have a chance to recover faster than tourist numbers alone would suggest. Bualuang Securities maintained an overweight rating on the tourism sector and selected Asset World Corp, Central Plaza Hotel and The Erawan Group, in that order. Asset World Corp stands out for its MICE booking momentum and asset injections into a REIT to recycle capital. Central Plaza Hotel is supported simultaneously by renovated Thai hotels, Maldives and Dubai hotels gradually raising occupancy, and improving food business margins. The Erawan Group is a recovery play on revenue per available room and HOP INN expansion, with potential upside from a future business separation. Airports of Thailand is not among the report's three top picks, but it has the most pronounced earnings inflection point, with 2027 core profit expected to grow 59% year on year from the full-year recognition of the passenger service charge.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities expect combined net profit of Thai listed companies in the third quarter of 2026 to continue growing from the same period last year, despite pressure from geopolitical risks and a prolonged El Niño. Combined net profit in the second quarter of 2026 expanded 14.3 percent from a year earlier and 12.0 percent from the previous quarter, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of growth and a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, supported by higher margins and selling price increases amid expanding demand, especially in energy, petrochemicals, and construction materials, which benefited from the Middle East conflict. More than 50 percent of the 107 listed companies with market forecasts reported net profit above expectations. The broker recommends avoiding sectors where earnings remain weak and accumulating five The Star stocks: HANA, ERW, PR9, BCH, and TIDLOR, which have potential for standout profit growth both from a year earlier and from the previous quarter, driven by company-specific positive factors and government stimulus measures.

Finansia Syrus Securities has raised its 2027 target price for ERW to 4.20 baht while maintaining a buy recommendation. The broker expects normalized profit to keep setting new record highs, growing at an average of 7% per year in 2026 to 2027 before accelerating to 12% in 2028. Net debt to equity is projected to fall to 1.0 times in 2028 from 1.3 times in 2025. The research team maintains its 2026 to 2028 earnings estimates and holds a positive view on the second half of 2026, expecting third quarter 2026 revenue to grow about 7% year on year, driven mainly by higher average room rates. Revenue per available room in July 2026 grew 5%, led by the luxury hotel segment, which expanded as much as 12%.

Most brokers continue to recommend buying shares of The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, or ERW, estimating second-quarter net profit for 2026 at 72 million baht, up 14 to 18.1 percent from a year earlier, and expecting second-half results to recover strongly thanks to the tourism high season, the return of Chinese tourists, and major events such as the World Bank and IMF meetings as well as the Tomorrowland Thailand music festival. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and a stronger baht have led the company to cut its 2026 revenue growth target to 6 percent, or about 8.4 billion baht, from the previous target of 9 percent.

KGI Securities Thailand recommends buying shares of The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, or ERW, with a 2027 target price of 4.30 baht, expecting second-half profit to grow both compared with the first half and with the same period last year. The research team maintains its full-year 2026 profit estimate at 967 million baht, up 15 percent from the previous year, and expects revenue per available room across its five-star to economy hotel portfolio in the third quarter of 2026 to grow 5 percent from a year earlier, supported by a 5 percent increase in average room rates while occupancy holds steady at 76 percent. Five-star hotels are leading the recovery, helped by strong performance at the JW Marriott even though the Grand Hyatt Erawan Bangkok is undergoing partial renovation. Management has lowered its 2026 revenue target to 8.4 billion baht, or 6 percent growth from the previous year, from an earlier target of 9 percent growth, which is close to the research team's estimate of 8.47 billion baht. The company also plans to add six more budget hotels, bringing its total network to 94 properties with about 8,500 rooms, up 9 percent from a year earlier, alongside lower financing costs.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that forward indicators for the hotel sector in the third quarter of 2069 remain strong compared with a year earlier, with Central Plaza Hotel having on-the-book revenue per available room up 15 percent, followed by The Erawan Group targeting revenue growth of 7 percent, and Minor International's on-the-book European hotel revenue per available room up 4 percent, with Thailand up 10 percent. July revenue per available room supports this trend, with Central Plaza Hotel Group up 13 percent and Thailand up 18 percent, The Erawan Group up 5 percent and its economy-to-luxury segment up 8 percent, with luxury up 15 percent, and Minor International's Europe up 4 percent and Thailand up 14 to 16 percent. Airports of Thailand's international passengers during the first 15 days of August were still up 2.5 percent year on year, compared with a decline of 1.7 percent year on year in July, reflecting resilient travel amid the war situation. Meanwhile, the average weekly jet fuel price for the week ending 14 August was around 159 US dollars per barrel, below the peak of 209 US dollars per barrel in April, helping ease pressure on travel costs. The research team selects stocks with company-specific support factors and laggard prices relative to the SET index, namely Central Plaza Hotel and Airports of Thailand, while Thai Airways is viewed as tactical on the assumption of lower jet fuel prices. It notes that if Brent crude exceeds 100 US dollars per barrel for several consecutive days, that would be a tactical trigger to consider reducing weightings in tourism-related stocks to limit risk.

Bualuang Securities noted in its analysis today that 12 listed companies reported financial results, split into 6 companies with better-than-expected earnings: PTT, AOT, ERW, PLANB, GFPT, and AMATA, and 6 companies with in-line earnings: TOP, BEM, BGRIM, BDMS, TIDLOR, and OSP, with no company reporting earnings below expectations. PTT reported 2Q26 net profit of 52.5 billion baht, up 144% year on year and 104% quarter on quarter, beating analyst and market expectations, driven by better-than-expected gas business profits. AOT reported 3Q26 net profit of 4.44 billion baht, 6% above analyst expectations and 17% above market expectations, due to lower-than-expected staff expenses. ERW reported 2Q26 core profit of 72 million baht, up 16% year on year but down 81% quarter on quarter on seasonal factors, beating analyst expectations. GFPT reported 2Q26 core profit of 582 million baht, down 12% year on year but up 20% quarter on quarter, beating analyst and market expectations on better-than-expected gross margin. PLANB reported 2Q26 core profit of 297 million baht, up 10% year on year but down 43% quarter on quarter, 4 to 6 percent above analyst and market expectations on better-than-expected gross margin. AMATA reported 2Q26 net profit of 1.58 billion baht, up 1,032% year on year and 15% quarter on quarter, 13% above analyst expectations and 16% above market expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.60 baht per share. For the in-line earnings group, TOP reported 2Q26 core profit of 16 billion baht, up 378% year on year and 74% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst expectations but 11% above market expectations, driven by higher refining margins and lube base margins. BGRIM reported 2Q26 core profit of 478 million baht, up 1% year on year but down 6% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.18 baht per share. BEM reported 2Q26 core profit of 1.01 billion baht, up 2% year on year and 16% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. BDMS reported 2Q26 core profit of 3.25 billion baht, down 7% year on year and 20% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst expectations but 7% below market expectations. TIDLOR reported 2Q26 net profit of 1.53 billion baht, up 18% year on year but down 5% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. OSP reported 2Q26 core profit of 1.10 billion baht, up 9% year on year but down 5% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. AAV reported a 2Q26 net loss of 2.33 billion baht, swinging from a net profit both year on year and quarter on quarter, with results in line with analyst expectations but the loss 17% smaller than market expectations.

Asia Plus Securities' research team said profits of 283 Thai listed companies out of 682 that have reported second-quarter results came in 11.9% above market expectations. Combined with estimates for the remaining companies, which cover 93% of market capitalisation, it assesses that total second-quarter profit could reach 355 billion baht, up 6.7% from the previous quarter and 8.2% from a year earlier. This raises expectations that second-quarter profit for fiscal 2026 may set a record high, continuing from the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The main growth drivers are petrochemicals, packaging and energy. Including commodity-linked groups such as energy, petrochemicals, food and agriculture, they would account for 44% of total market profit, compared with a normal level of about 30%. The research team views that first-half profit already represents 60% of the full-year target, reducing pressure in the third and fourth quarters and opening upside to the market-wide earnings per share estimate of 95 baht per share, which gives room for the index target to be revised upward. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows into the Thai stock market slowed clearly in August, with cumulative net selling of nearly 10 billion baht, while retail investors were net buyers supporting the index. The research team recommends three stock groups: companies with better-than-expected results such as IRPC, TCAP, KCE and CENTEL; companies benefiting from commodities and geopolitics such as TASCO, RCL, BCP and PTTGC; and companies expected to recover in the second half such as THAI, ERW and BCH. Its top three picks are PTT, BDMS and CENTEL.

Krungsri Securities stated that the Tourism Ministry's Thai Tour Thai Plus scheme will stimulate domestic tourism during the low season by subsidising service sector spending via the Pao Tang app, while also moving ahead with collecting a landing fee from foreign tourists to channel funds into the Thai Tourism Promotion Fund. The revenue will be used to develop tourist areas, allocate insurance premiums for tourist safety, and restore the environment. The research unit sees a positive impact on service sector stocks with high domestic revenue exposure, especially AWC, ERW, and CENTEL, while the landing fee is expected to have a limited impact.

Land and Houses Securities assesses that the retail sector faces short-term challenges, with CPAXT's second-quarter profit falling 18 percent year-on-year despite higher total revenue, as selling and administrative expenses rose from accelerated branch expansion and Lotus's same-store sales declined nearly 4 percent due to indirect impacts from the Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme. Analysts expect the retail and wholesale sector to recover in the fourth quarter, which is the high season, and may get support from short-term stimulus measures such as increasing the state welfare card limit, which will benefit TNP. BJC is expected to see profit recovery in the second half, supported by its packaging business. Meanwhile, the tourism sector is viewed as the most attractive for long-term investment, as the government prepares concrete tourism stimulus measures in the fourth quarter, with recommended stocks including ERW, CENTEL, and MINT. The finance sector is a laggard with earnings poised to surge, with SAWAD expected to post quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter and stand out in the second half, while MTC is worth accumulating as its price has not risen much.

Bualuang Securities revealed that net profits for the second quarter of 2069 for stocks under its coverage came in 5.6% above market expectations, with 48% of stocks beating estimates compared to a five-year average of 37%. Standout performers were led by SCC, up 41% from its petrochemical business, SCGP up 20% from packaging and recycling, KKP up 18% from non-interest income, and TU up 10.9% from seafood demand. Meanwhile, DELTA missed profit forecasts by 31% due to supply chain issues. The research team also noted positive signals from IT retail sales at COM7 and ADVICE, which grew 10% and 17% year-on-year in July. In the lifestyle segment, MOSHI saw same-store sales rise 9% on the squishy toy trend. Tourism continued to recover, with foreign arrivals in July reaching 2.5 million, and ERW's revenue per available room expected to grow both year-on-year and month-on-month. Export demand for food and pet food remained strong, with TU projecting 5-6% growth and ITC projecting 10% growth. The investment strategy therefore focuses on COM7, ADVICE, MOSHI, CPALL, ERW, TU, and ITC.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited states that ERW is entering a recovery phase after normalised profit in 2025 fell 9% from the previous year. The earnings trend is starting to recover with the return of tourists, especially Chinese tourists, which have increased 17% since the beginning of the year to date. Normalised profit for the second quarter of 2026 is expected at 78 million baht, up 26% from the previous year but down 80% from the prior quarter due to seasonal factors. Full-year normalised profit for 2026 is forecast at 928 million baht, up 11% from the previous year, and 2027 is expected to grow 12% from the prior year, driven by total tourist arrivals projected to increase 8 to 9% per year. The analyst recommends buy with a target price of 4.20 baht, based on an average EV to EBITDA of 11.4 times, and selects ERW as the top pick in the sector due to its domestic revenue base of over 92%, making it less exposed to war risk than peers. It is expected to benefit from tourism stimulus measures and major events in the fourth quarter of 2026, with normalised profit trending to grow at an average of 12% per year during 2026 to 2028.

The Ministry of Tourism is preparing to propose to the Cabinet by the end of August 2026 for approval of the Thai Tour Thai Plus project, requesting a budget of 2.45 billion baht from the emergency loan decree. It aims to stimulate the economy during the low season and generate over 56 billion baht in circulation. If approved, the public can start using the benefits from late 2026, including accommodation discounts of up to 3,000 baht, digital coupons, and airfare discounts, alongside measures to attract foreign tourists. Analysts assess that this project will be positive for tourism, hotel, and domestic airline stocks, namely CENTEL, ERW, MINT, AWC, AOT, BA, and AAV.

KGI Securities expects the combined core profit of five hotel operators in the second quarter of 2026 to reach 3.85 billion baht, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier and up 46.8 percent from the previous quarter. Minor International will be the main driver, supported by its European hotel business entering the high season. Central Plaza Hotel is forecast to post the strongest profit growth at 15 percent year-on-year, followed by Asset World Corporation and The Erawan Group at 11 percent and 10 percent respectively. S Hotels and Resorts is expected to swing to a core loss. The research team maintains an overweight stance on the hotel sector and has raised target prices by 6 to 13 percent, selecting ERW and CENTEL as top picks with target prices of 4.30 baht and 48.00 baht respectively.

Bualuang Securities expects the SET Index in August to move in a range of 1,600 to 1,700 points, supported by a broad-based earnings recovery, reflected in SET EPS being revised up by 4.2 percent in July and 6.3 percent year-to-date. Foreign investors bought a net 49 billion baht of Thai stocks in July and 76 billion baht year-to-date. Bualuang Securities recommends a Defensive Yield Core strategy combined with Satellite Alpha through four main themes. The first theme is Thailand Power Infrastructure Cycle, focusing on investment in transmission systems and renewable energy driven by data center electricity demand in the Eastern Economic Corridor reaching 26,045 megawatts. The government is preparing to invest 31 billion baht to expand the transmission system and plans to use remaining loan funds of around 200 billion baht to support solar rooftop and smart grid projects, benefiting stocks such as GULF and GUNKUL. The second theme is Higher for Longer Defensive-Dividend Rotation, focusing on high-dividend stocks amid high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, especially in the communications sector where earnings are still growing. ADVANC's second-quarter 2026 profit is expected to rise 24 percent year-on-year, and TRUE's by 48 percent year-on-year. The third theme is Policy-driven Tourism Recovery, focusing on the tourism sector which is expected to have passed its earnings trough in the second quarter of 2026, supported by government measures worth 1.75 billion baht, benefiting stocks such as ERW. The fourth theme is Selective Consumption Recovery, focusing on IT retail and beverage sectors that are still growing, with COM7 sales up 8 to 10 percent year-on-year, ADVICE up 13 to 15 percent year-on-year, and MOSHI expecting same-store sales growth of 4 percent, benefiting stocks such as CBG.

The Minister of Tourism and Sports has assigned policies to the Tourism Authority of Thailand board to drive the tourism industry under the concept of Tourism for All, Tourism for the Future, preparing to move forward with three key projects during the high season. These are the Thai Travels Thailand Plus, or Co-pay, project to stimulate domestic travel; the Fly Thai All the Feelings project, partnering with six domestic airlines to offer ticket discounts to Thai citizens for 400,000 seats; and the Thailand Air Connect project, collaborating with airlines and partners to increase frequency and seat capacity on both charter and commercial flights. In addition, the government aims to elevate Thailand into a valuable and sustainable destination, promoting travel to secondary cities and 55 target communities, and pushing for the country to become a global event hub by hosting the Tomorrowland Thailand music festival from 11 to 13 December 2026 in Chonburi province, which is expected to attract no fewer than 150,000 attendees and generate total economic value of up to 6.132 billion baht. Kasikorn Securities, or KS, assesses that these measures are a positive factor for tourism-related stocks, including AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, and AWC, as well as retail operators in tourist cities, viewing that travel and spending have an opportunity to recover in the second half of the year.

Several brokers view MOSHI as the standout in the retail sector. Maybank Securities forecasts second-quarter 2026 profit at 154 million baht, up 15% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 3.5%, the highest in the group. KGI Securities and DBS Vickers Securities emphasize recovering consumer confidence and ongoing branch expansion plans. In the hotel sector, ERW is expected to post a 25% year-on-year profit increase in the second quarter of 2026, supported by short-haul tourists and HOP INN. CENTEL is projected to earn 120 million baht, up 15% year-on-year, and is benefiting from positive sentiment around year-end domestic events. For large-cap stocks, PTT is seen as having its core business returning to a recovery cycle. Krungsri Securities expects normalized profit in 2026 to grow 66%, with the stock trading at a low price-to-book value of just 0.95 times. TRUE is forecast to achieve a new record high for second-quarter 2026 profit, reaching 6.8 billion baht, a 232% year-on-year surge, driven by higher margins and reduced competition. In logistics, SJWD is expected to report normalized second-quarter 2026 profit of 337 million baht, up 18% year-on-year, the highest in five quarters. UOB Kay Hian has upgraded BJC to a buy recommendation, citing an improving utilization outlook for its glass bottle production. Additionally, AIRA Securities notes that GANFENG23, which references Ganfeng Lithium Group, one of the world's largest lithium producers, has a forward price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 of just 7.8 times, well below its five-year historical average of 14.4 times, with earnings expected to recover as lithium carbonate prices rise to 160,000 yuan per ton.

Dao Securities Thailand has raised its target prices for hotel stocks CENTEL and ERW while maintaining buy recommendations. It expects CENTEL's normalised profit for the second quarter of 2026 to come in at 120 million baht, up 15 percent from a year earlier but down 89 percent from the previous quarter due to the low season. ERW's normalised profit is forecast at 75 million baht, up 21 percent year-on-year but down 81 percent quarter-on-quarter. The research team has lifted its 2026 and 2027 normalised profit estimates for CENTEL by 14 percent and 11 percent respectively, reflecting a smaller-than-expected impact from the Middle East situation, and raised CENTEL's target price to 42.00 baht from 37.00 baht. For ERW, it has raised annual profit estimates by 5 percent and lifted the target price to 3.70 baht from 3.20 baht.

Bualuang Securities expects net profit of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 to expand 24 percent from the same period last year and rise 2 percent from the first quarter, supported by higher energy prices, petrochemical spreads, mobile and internet service revenue, lower network costs, demand for electronic components for artificial intelligence and data centers, as well as new power generation capacity and profits from GULF's overseas power plant business. Meanwhile, the meat sector is pressured by lower meat prices, the banking group by narrowing interest margins, and the hospital group by fewer cash-paying patients and a slowdown in non-urgent treatments. Bualuang Securities highlights two investment approaches: picking stocks with still-strong second-quarter profit trends such as PTT, PTTGC, TRUE, ADVANC, AMATA, GULF, GUNKUL, and WHAUP, and gradually accumulating stocks with weak prices but expected strong profit recovery in the second half, such as CBG, ERW, CPF, and BTG.

AWC shares rose 8.95% to 2.92 baht, up 0.24 baht, leading the tourism sector after InnovestX Securities raised its 2026 foreign tourist arrival estimate from 31 million to 33 million. Foreign tourist arrivals from January 1 to July 18, 2026, stood at 17.4 million, down 3.1% year-on-year, and are expected to return to year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by high-season demand, global events, and government measures. The research team raised normalized earnings estimates for hotel stocks, with ERW seeing the largest upgrade at 15%, followed by AWC at 11%, CENTEL at 7%, and MINT at 1%, based on their revenue exposure to Thai hotels. ERW is seen as best positioned due to its high share of revenue from Thailand and a strong domestic guest base, while CENTEL is expected to post the strongest profit growth in 2027, supported by a new hotel in the Maldives and a recovery at its joint-venture hotel in Dubai.

Pobchai Pattarawich, stock and derivatives market strategist at InnovestX Securities, said the Thai stock market is likely to move sideways down in a range of 1,630 to 1,650 points. Although tensions in the Middle East have started to ease, the market still faces pressure from DELTA's earnings and lower oil prices. DELTA's second-quarter 2026 results came in about 35 percent below analyst expectations due to higher raw material costs amid shortages of specialized chips and high-power electrical equipment. The analyst meeting and management's outlook will be closely watched, as they could lead to downward revisions of 2026 profit forecasts from the previous expectation of over 30 percent growth. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices fell around 5 to 6 percent, likely weighing on upstream energy stocks such as PTTEP, as well as refinery and petrochemical names like BCP, TOP, SPRC, PTTGC, and IVL. However, tourism, hotel, airline, power plant, and finance stocks may see buying interest from lower energy costs and declining bond yields. For short-term investment strategy, the firm recommends The Erawan Group, or ERW, expecting second-quarter 2026 profit to grow about 21 percent year-on-year, the strongest in its sector, and Global Power Synergy, or GPSC, which benefits from lower gas costs and bond yields, along with positive factors from the new power development plan, or PDP 2026, expected to be announced next month.

Asia Plus Securities says Middle East risks are easing after the US halted strikes, Iran scaled back retaliation, and diplomatic talks resumed. This has pulled Brent crude down from above 100 dollars a barrel to 88 dollars a barrel. However, factors to watch remain, including US-Iran negotiations, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and tensions in the Red Sea. Polymarket indicates the chance of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal operations is just 16 percent in August, 30 percent in September, and 60 percent in December. The research team therefore recommends a short-term strategy tilting more towards de-escalation trades, reducing some exposure to oil-play stocks and rotating into beneficiaries of lower oil prices, while maintaining tactical hedges. It flags nine stocks: Centel, Minor International, Erawan, Thai Airways, Bangkok Airways, B.Grimm, GPSC, Gulf, and Dohome.

Bualuang Securities forecasts total net profit of listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 to grow 24 percent compared to the same period last year, and 2 percent from the previous quarter. Supporting factors include the energy and petrochemical sectors benefiting from improved oil prices, refining margins, and petrochemical spreads, as well as continued growth in telecommunications, electronics, industrial estates, retail, and hotels. Meanwhile, banking, meat, and hospital sectors still face pressure. Bualuang Securities recommends two investment strategies: selective play in stocks with still-strong profit growth and no earnings estimate cuts, such as PTT, PTTGC, ADVANC, TRUE, AMATA, GULF, GUNKUL, and WHAUP; and bargain hunting in stocks whose profits have passed their trough and are expected to recover in the second half, such as CBG, ERW, CPF, and BTG.

Bualuang Securities expects the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to climb to 1,700 points by the end of 2026, supported by foreign fund inflows projected to reach 160 billion baht in net buying for the full year. This follows net purchases of around 70 billion baht since the start of the year, driven by strong earnings growth among listed companies, particularly in the energy and petrochemical sectors, and the appeal of high dividend yields in Thai equities. For the second half, the investment strategy focuses on selective stock picking in sectors with positive catalysts. These include power plant operators benefiting from green energy demand, with recommendations for GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL, and WHAUP. The electronics sector is recovering in line with global cycles and AI investment, with KCE as a top pick. Commercial banks offering high dividends are favored, with KBANK and KTB highlighted. Tourism and hotel stocks, where earnings have bottomed out, are represented by ERW and AWC. Consumer goods and food companies poised to gain from hotter weather include CBG and CPF. In portfolio allocation, Bualuang Securities advises investors who can tolerate risk to allocate 60 to 70 percent to equities, split into 30 percent Thai stocks and 70 percent foreign stocks, with the remainder in debt instruments and bonds, primarily focusing on Thai debt securities.

Finansia Syrus Securities has raised its target for the SET Index to 1,710 points by mid-2027, based on an estimated average earnings per share of 100.5 baht and a target PER of 17 times. The research team lifted its 2026 earnings per share estimate by 3 percent to 99 baht, and its 2027 estimate to 102 baht, reflecting growth of 13 percent and 4 percent from the prior year, respectively. It also sees the Thai economy recovering steadily and foreign capital flows having a chance to return to the Thai stock market, as foreign investors' holdings of Thai equities remain below past peaks. Recommended top picks include BA, BBL, BDMS, CPALL, CPF, CPN, ERW, GULF, SAPPE, STA, and TIDLOR.

Thailand's hotel business in the second half of 2026 is supported by business travel and global events hosted by the country, expected to attract over 300,000 high-quality travelers, driving occupancy rates and revenue per available room to grow continuously. Analysts at Kasikorn Securities revealed that although foreign tourist arrivals in April fell 7.0% year-on-year, the average daily room rate rose 6.1% to 1,947 baht, resulting in revenue per available room of 1,411 baht, up 4.2%, and May is expected to recover with a 4.0% increase in tourist numbers. Key events such as Gastech, the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings, Thailand MICE Week, and Tomorrowland Thailand will be positive factors for hotel operators, especially AWC, ERW, CENTEL, and MINT, as well as airport and airline businesses. The research team maintains a buy recommendation on AWC with a target price of 3.55 baht, and on ERW.

Kasikorn Securities assesses the SET Index today in a range of 1,620 to 1,650 points, with the Middle East situation still intense. The United States is not yet ready to make a deal with Iran and threatens to strike Iran's infrastructure, while Iran retaliates by threatening to attack energy infrastructure linked to US interests. Such risks continue to push Brent crude oil prices up to 95 dollars per barrel, fueling concerns over high inflation and tighter monetary policy. On the earnings front for US tech, Tesla came in below expectations while Alphabet beat estimates, but the market remains worried about high levels of investment, pressuring tech stocks in the short term. The broker recommends a short-term strategy of increased caution, focusing on waiting for pullbacks to accumulate stocks with positive catalysts, highlighting ERW and PTTEP.

KGI Securities Thailand expects ERW's core profit in the second quarter of 2026 at 68 million baht, up 10 percent from a year earlier but down 81 percent from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors. Revenue from hotels across all tiers is projected at 1.26 billion baht, up 4 percent year-on-year, supported by RevPAR of 2,245 baht per night and a 6 percent year-on-year growth in revenue from Hop Inn hotels driven by continued branch expansion. Meanwhile, EBITDA margin is expected to soften to 27.7 percent due to higher SG&A expenses, but interest expense is forecast to decline 9 percent from a year earlier to 142 million baht following debt restructuring. Room bookings in July 2026 still show mid-single-digit growth from a year earlier and an improvement from the previous month, with ADR rising, led by the five-star hotel segment after The Naka Island resumed operations. MICE events and international concerts in the fourth quarter will further boost occupancy and RevPAR. If second-quarter profit meets expectations, first-half core profit will reach 473 million baht, accounting for 49 percent of the full-year estimate of 967 million baht. KGI Securities Thailand therefore maintains a buy recommendation and raises the target price to 3.80 baht, based on a 2027 EV/EBITDA of 9 times.

Prime Minister Anutin's visit to China is bolstering investment and tourism confidence. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is partnering with Sichuan Airlines, Meituan, and several Chinese allies to increase flights, enhance safety, and market to quality tourists. The target for Chinese tourists in 2026 has been adjusted to 5.13 million, generating revenue of approximately 288 billion baht. Research views this as positive for tourism and aviation stocks such as AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, and AWC, given the continued recovery in flights and Chinese tourist arrivals.

Yuanta Securities estimates that The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, or ERW, will see normal profit in the second quarter of 2026 grow 20% year-on-year to 75 million baht, supported by a low base in the previous year when Chinese tourist arrivals slowed and an earthquake occurred. The impact from the Middle East conflict remains limited, as the main customer base consists of short-haul tourists, particularly from China, which grew 25% year-on-year. Average revenue per room for the group's hotels in Thailand, excluding Hop Inn, stood at 2,200 baht per night, down 28% from the previous quarter but up 4% from a year earlier. The Hop Inn hotel group is expected to see revenue grow 11%, driven by expansion in Thailand and Korea. The analyst team maintains its full-year 2026 normal profit forecast at 907 million baht, up 4% from the previous year, and has raised the fair value to 4.00 baht while keeping a buy recommendation. It views risks from foreign tourists as lower than expected, with economic recession a factor to monitor.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

Kingsford Securities assesses that the SET Index today will move in a sideways-up range, with support at 1,640–1,645 points and resistance at 1,660 points, after volatility in the US tech sector eased and US stock markets closed higher, led by the semiconductor index surging 5.2%, boosting domestic electronics stocks. The research team recommends short-term speculation in DELTA, HANA, and KCE following the US tech recovery, and highlights GULF and ERW as top picks. GULF's second-quarter 2026 profit outlook is improving, driven by its Thai power plants and share of profit from ADVANC, while ERW is supported by the Thai Travel Plus scheme and rising foreign tourist arrivals.

Analysts have selected seven stocks expected to post second-quarter earnings growth. PSL may swing from a loss to strong profit as dry bulk freight rates surge. RCL benefits from container shortages due to port congestion and can levy additional special fees. AMATA is scheduled for large land transfers in both Thailand and Vietnam, supported by electric vehicle and data center production bases. ERW maintains high average revenue per room and continues expanding its Hop Inn branches. MRDIY's profit keeps racing ahead from new branch openings with quick payback and robust same-store sales. CPN gains from increased mall foot traffic, boosting rental income and sales share. COM7 is generating new revenue from retail media, using over 1,400 stores nationwide as advertising billboards with high gross margins.

Kasikorn Securities notes that the Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported that from January 1 to July 18, 2026, Thailand welcomed a cumulative 17.36 million foreign tourists, generating revenue of 839 billion baht. Although this is still down 3.05 percent compared to the same period last year, the top five source markets were China, Malaysia, India, Russia, and South Korea. Meanwhile, in the latest week, tourist numbers rose 4.04 percent from the previous week, supported by school holidays, increased flights, and a recovery in the Taiwan market. The research team views this as positive for tourism and airport stocks such as Airports of Thailand, Asia Aviation, Bangkok Airways, Central Plaza Hotel, Erawan Group, Minor International, and Asset World Corporation, given the gradual recovery in tourist numbers expected in the second half of the year, even though cumulative arrivals remain slightly below last year's level.