Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited

Kasikorn Securities has raised its profit forecast for Central Retail Corporation (CRC) by 13.5% for 2026 to 9.1 billion baht, maintaining a "Buy" recommendation with a target price of 33.00 baht. This follows second-quarter 2026 normalized profit of 1.9 billion baht, up 97% year-on-year but down 33% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the research house's estimate by 36%, supported by a gross margin that was 1.3 percentage points higher than forecast. Management expects margins to continue expanding by 60-70 basis points in 2026, alongside sales growth of 2-3%, and has reduced its capital expenditure target to 11-12 billion baht from 13-15 billion baht previously, due to delayed investments in Thailand and project delays in Vietnam.

The National Innovation Agency (NIA) hosted the GLOBAL STARTUP HUB DEMO DAY 2026, bringing together 30 selected startups in the fields of AI, IoT, Semiconductor, EV & Mobility, Energy Tech, and Climate Tech & Sustainability to present results after business matching with over 60 large corporations. The goal is to drive them toward Proof of Concept (PoC) testing with leading organizations such as Thailand Post, Central Retail, PTT, Thai Oil, and AIS, aiming to reduce industrial risks and create shortcuts to sales and commercial investment. Dr. Krishpaka Boonfueng, Director of NIA, stated that this project is a mechanism under the Groom – Grant – Growth – Global approach to enhance the business readiness and international market readiness of Thai startups. The PoC process will allow startups to validate their technology against real-world challenges and establish reference cases for future market expansion.

Krungsri Securities expects normalized profit for the retail sector in the third quarter of 2026 to grow year-on-year but decline quarter-on-quarter due to the rainy season. The year-on-year profit growth is driven by higher gross margins from product mix, promotional management, and lower transportation costs, while same-store sales are expected to be flat amid still-fragile purchasing power. The research team forecasts normalized profit for the retail sector in 2026 at 68.2 billion baht, up 9 percent year-on-year, higher than expected sales growth of 4 percent year-on-year. Excluding GLOBAL and DOHOME, which benefited significantly from low-cost inventory in the second quarter of 2026, MRDIY, MOSHI, and CRC are expected to post the strongest normalized profit growth in the sector. The firm maintains a neutral weighting on retail stocks because fragile purchasing power limits same-store sales recovery, and recommends selective plays, naming MOSHI, CRC, and MRDIY as top picks in the sector.

Land and Houses Securities Public Company Limited recommends buying CRC shares, setting a target price of 36.26 baht, after forecasting normalized profit for 2026 at 9.9 billion baht, growth of around 30% from the previous year, supported by gross margin expansion of 60 to 70 basis points from private brand products and fashion group management, as well as lower interest expenses after selling Rinascente in Italy. The company is slowing GO Wholesale store openings to just one location this year and cutting its 2026 capital expenditure budget to 12 to 14 billion baht, in order to accelerate improvements at existing stores before resuming expansion in 2027. The deal to acquire AEON Thailand to manage 30 MaxValu stores is expected to begin consolidating in the fourth quarter of 2026, with losses of around 50 to 60 million baht recognized initially, before targeting EBIT breakeven or positive in 2027.

CGS International Securities Thailand, or CGSI, assesses that the medium-term earnings trend for Central Retail Corporation, or CRC, is improving, following the analyst meeting on second-quarter 2026 results, which reflected business restructuring, cost management, and operational efficiency gains, particularly in the food business. CRC has lowered its 2026 revenue growth target to 2 to 3 percent from 4 to 5 percent previously, while raising its EBITDA growth target to 6 to 8 percent from 5 to 7 percent, and setting a target for gross margin expansion of 60 to 70 basis points. This reflects a greater emphasis on profit growth through efficiency rather than relying solely on a recovery in purchasing power. Second-quarter 2026 results showed gross margin expansion of 170 percent, supported by inventory gains at the Thai Watsadu business, which management views as temporary and likely to decline in the second half of 2026. As a result, CGSI cautions that the gross margin level in the second quarter of 2026 should not be used as a new normal baseline. The food business remains one of the key profit drivers, with food sales in Thailand growing 10 percent, same-store sales rising 5 percent, and food business EBITDA growing 27 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. For the MaxValu acquisition, CRC targets closing the deal by the end of September 2026 and expects to consolidate full-quarter financials in the fourth quarter of 2026. Initially, CGSI estimates that MaxValu may generate a loss of about 65 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, before targeting positive EBIT in 2027. However, CGSI views the deal as strategically beneficial over the long term, given access to a network of 30 branches, a customer base of around 900,000, and potential to build on the ready-to-eat food business through Tops' procurement platform and logistics systems. For the 2027 outlook, sales growth and margins are expected to be more balanced, after delayed store openings in Thailand and Vietnam are gradually completed. Meanwhile, CRC has cut its 2026 capital expenditure to 12 to 14 billion baht from 16 to 18 billion baht, reflecting project timing shifts and stricter investment selection rather than a reduction in long-term expansion plans. In summary, CGSI sees CRC's fundamentals improving due to business restructuring focused on margin enhancement, cash flow management, and higher returns on capital, with the food business, Vietnam, and GO Wholesale as long-term growth drivers. However, CRC's share price has already risen 13.6 percent to 29.25 baht, reflecting much of the positive earnings revision. CGSI therefore recommends that existing shareholders can continue holding for long-term growth opportunities, while new investors should wait for a suitable entry point or for further evidence that margin expansion can be sustained after the second quarter of 2026.

Kasikorn Securities raised its target price for CRC shares to 33 baht from 26.70 baht, while maintaining a buy recommendation, after seeing gross margin expansion supporting faster profit growth in 2026. Management lowered its 2026 revenue growth target to 2 to 3 percent from 4 to 5 percent, but raised its gross profit margin target to an expansion of 60 to 70 basis points, reflecting a strategy focused on profit quality. In the first half of 2026, revenue rose 2.4 percent to 126.6 billion baht, while normalized profit increased 42.5 percent to 4.6 billion baht, accounting for 52 percent of the full-year estimate. Gross profit margin expanded 170 basis points to 25.6 percent. The research team expects second-half gross margin to remain strong at more than 50 to 60 basis points and stay above 25 percent. It also raised 2026 to 2028 profit estimates by 13.5 percent, 7.5 percent, and 8.5 percent to 9.1 billion baht, 9.6 billion baht, and 11.1 billion baht, respectively.

Brokers are recommending buying shares of Central Retail Corporation, or CRC, after it announced a deal to acquire Max Valu, supporting the expansion potential of its Tops group businesses and offering investment value because it can increase the ability to expand branches quickly, supporting the business's medium- to long-term potential. In addition, in the second half of the year, same-store sales trends have started to turn positive again, and gross margin trends have begun to rise again thanks to cost management and a focus on selling own-brand products. CRC's latest share price surged 13.59% to 29.25 baht, an increase of 3.50 baht. Brokers recommending a buy include UOB Kay Hian with a target price of 30.00 baht, Pi at 29.00 baht, Yuanta at 28.25 baht, Asia Plus at 27.25 baht, Tisco at 27.00 baht, and Kasikorn at 26.70 baht.

Shares of Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited, or CRC, rose 11.65% after it reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 2.0 billion baht, up 79% from the same period last year but down 27% from the previous quarter. The share price stood at 28.75 baht, up 3.00 baht, after touching an intraday high of 29.00 baht, with trading value of 581.65 million baht. Pi Securities recommended buying with a target price of 29 baht, saying profit beat both its research team's and the market's expectations, driven by better-than-expected gross margin expansion and same-store sales growth of 1%. Asia Plus Securities said profit came in 37% above market expectations, maintained its speculative buy recommendation, and set a 2027 target price of 27.50 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to continue growing well year-on-year and fourth-quarter 2026 profit to rise both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year thanks to the high season.

Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited, or CRC, reported second-quarter 2026 net profit after adjustments from continuing operations of 2.114 billion baht, up 124% from the same period last year, with total revenue of 60.119 billion baht, an increase of 3.5%. For the first half, net profit after adjustments was 5.002 billion baht, up 42.5%, and total revenue was 126.633 billion baht, up 2.4%. Panet Maharakkhanurak, Chief Financial Officer, said the results reflect store network expansion and improvements, higher gross margins across all business groups, and continued cost discipline. The company maintained its corporate credit rating at AA- with a stable outlook from Tris Rating for the fourth consecutive year, and its loyalty program membership base totaled nearly 30 million, comprising 23 million in Thailand and almost 7 million in Vietnam.

Central Retail Corporation, or CRC, has sent its subsidiary Central Food Retail to acquire Aeon Thailand, which operates supermarkets under the MaxValu brand, totaling 30 branches. After the transaction, CRC will hold a 100% stake. This deal gives CRC an immediate fast-track of 30 branches, a customer base of over 900,000, ownership of prime land in Bangkok, surrounding provinces, and major cities, as well as a ready-to-eat food production center. Analysts from Pi Securities and KGI Securities view the deal positively, expecting it to help improve margins and return the business to profitability by 2027, although there may be short-term costs from rebranding.

TTB Wealth Securities maintains an Overweight recommendation on the retail sector, assessing that sector earnings have passed their trough and the contraction in same-store sales is coming to an end. It expects combined earnings per share of the retail companies under its coverage to grow 12 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, although down 16 percent quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors, and forecasts a continued recovery in the second half of 2026. Key drivers include a return to same-store sales growth, margin expansion from better product selection, and cost savings. The broker expects home improvement and furnishing retail stocks, namely GLOBAL, DOHOME, and HMPRO, as well as CRC, to show the strongest recovery, while CPN, CPALL, and COM7 continue to grow well on successful business strategies. For the building materials and home furnishing retail group, the securities firm estimates EPS will grow 37 percent in the second quarter of 2026, after earnings contracted continuously during 2023 to 2025, supported by better margins, a narrowing decline in same-store sales growth, and favorable product pricing from inflation. GLOBAL is seen as the standout, with earnings expected to grow 84 percent, driven by a higher proportion of house-brand products, cost control, and favorable pricing. CRC is expected to post 36 percent earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, thanks to business strategy adjustments that support both same-store sales and margins, as well as lower marketing and interest expenses. Meanwhile, CPN is forecast to grow earnings by 15 percent, CPALL by 7 percent, COM7 by 30 percent, and MOSHI by 19 percent, with these companies seen as continuing to gain market share and expand margins. On the other hand, CPAXT is estimated to see earnings fall a further 17 percent due to weak same-store sales and margin compression from consumers trading down to lower-priced goods. For BJC, although earnings are expected to rise 12 percent from the acquisition of a wholesale business in Vietnam, the core BigC business remains weak with negative same-store sales growth. MRDIY is forecast to grow earnings by only 13 percent, below expectations, despite rapid store expansion. TTB Wealth Securities says the trend for the second half of 2026 will strengthen as the economy improves, maintaining a positive bias on building materials and CRC, and selecting CPN, GLOBAL, and CRC as top picks in the retail sector. For recommendations and target prices, stocks rated BUY are CPN with a target price of 75 baht, GLOBAL at 9 baht, CRC at 31 baht, CPALL at 62 baht, COM7 at 34 baht, DOHOME at 4.50 baht, HMPRO at 9.50 baht, MOSHI at 50 baht, and MRDIYT at 12.20 baht. CPAXT is rated HOLD with a target price of 14 baht, and BJC is rated SELL with a target price of 12.50 baht.

Bualuang Securities assesses the SET Index over the final five months of 2026 to be in a sideways-up trend, with a range of 1,580 to 1,700 points. Mr. Piriyapol Khongwanit, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, stated that first-half earnings of Thai listed companies grew strongly, leading to an upward revision of the market's earnings per share estimate by about 4% to 103 baht. When rolling over to mid-2027, the SET Index target becomes 1,710 points. The index is expected to peak in the fourth quarter, supported by the high season for tourism, stable high crude oil prices, and continued foreign capital inflows. Notably, net inflows in July reached as high as 47 billion baht, bringing total net purchases since the start of the year to around 74 billion baht. In the second half, there is potential for additional foreign inflows of 160 to 200 billion baht. On investment strategy, a barbell portfolio is recommended, balancing growth stocks and high-dividend stocks, highlighting five key themes: Long-term Growth, such as GULF, WHAUP, and GUNKUL; Defensive and Yield Play, such as KTB; Normalization and Stimulus, such as COM7, CRC, ERW, and CBG; Event Play from Super El Niño, such as CPF, BTG, and ICHI; and Geopolitical and Inflation Hedge, such as PTT and PTTGC. It also advises avoiding property and asset management stocks due to fragile domestic purchasing power. Meanwhile, US technology stocks remain positive despite short-term corrections, recommending accumulation of quality growth names with clear earnings and valuation support. For Thai technology stocks, only short-term speculative trading is suggested. Mr. Chaiporn Nompitakcharoen, Managing Director of Securities Business at Bualuang Securities, disclosed that for the final five months, the recommended portfolio allocation is 74% equities, 22% fixed income, and 4% alternative assets and gold. The US stock market is viewed as the most attractive, while the firm continues to expand its wealth advisory business and promote block trades to capture the uptrend.

Krungsri Securities views the acquisition of 30 MaxValu branches by CRC as slightly positive, as it accelerates food business expansion and adds over 900,000 customers. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, with all branches gradually converted to Tops. A key point is that investment per branch is expected to be lower than opening new ones, and the company aims to turn EBIT positive in 2027, from MaxValu's 2025 sales of 3.82 billion baht and a net loss of 266 million baht. We initially estimate this deal will boost CRC's 2027 sales by about 1.7 percent, and if margins approach CRC's 3 to 4 percent, there would be upside of around 1 to 2 percent to normalized earnings.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the global investment landscape is facing challenges on all fronts, amid a sharper-than-expected slowdown in US employment, which fuels hopes that the Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate at the September meeting. Meanwhile, domestic factors are receiving a significant boost from the rapidly strengthening baht, supported by continued foreign inflows into the Thai bond market, with cumulative net purchases this month exceeding 9.2 billion baht. The baht recently touched 32.98 per US dollar. The research team has identified three main industry groups in Thailand that stand to benefit positively from the strong baht. The first group comprises large-cap stocks that are prime targets for foreign fund flows, including commercial banks such as KBANK, SCB, BBL, and KTB; retail and tourism plays like AOT, CPALL, and CRC; telecoms such as ADVANC and TRUE; and construction materials like SCC. The second group consists of companies with high foreign-currency debt or costs, including power and energy firms such as GULF, BGRIM, GPSC, and PTTEP, and airlines like AAV. The third group covers businesses that rely heavily on imported raw materials, including agriculture and food companies such as TFG and TVO. In addition, the research team recommends portfolio strategies to navigate volatility, highlighting safe-haven stocks combined with gold as a hedge, and names SYNTEC, PTT, and GUNKUL as top picks for the Thai stock market, along with LITE01 and ZIJIN80 for overseas investment.

Sherwood Corporation (Thailand) Public Company Limited, or SWC, has announced a partnership with Central Food Retail Company Limited to officially launch The Goody, a premium pet food and care product line, at Tops Central Northville branch, while expanding distribution through over 155 TOPS and PET'N ME outlets nationwide. SWC targets The Goody sales of 1.7 billion baht within three years, and sales through TOPS and PET'N ME of 20 million baht in the first six months. Thailand's pet market in 2025 to 2026 is expected to be worth approximately 90 to 100 billion baht, while the pet food market is valued at around 40 to 45 billion baht, with the premium and ultra-premium segments growing at double-digit rates driven by the pet humanization trend. This collaboration will help The Goody reach pet parents through an omni-channel strategy connecting physical stores and online channels, while laying the foundation for future expansion into the ASEAN market.

CGSI assesses listed-company earnings for the second quarter of 2026, with the petrochemical sector driving growth while the communication and tourism sectors may disappoint. The firm maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points and selects BH, PR9, THAI, ERW, CRC, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR as top picks. The research team notes that the non-bank sector will see net profit decline 14 percent year-on-year and 7 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026, based on Bloomberg consensus estimates. The petrochemical sector is likely to be supported by higher spreads, while the transport sector, especially airlines, tends to weaken due to rising fuel costs stemming from the situation in the Middle East. In addition, the ICT and tourism sectors face risks of disappointment, as Bloomberg consensus estimates of strong net profit growth of 26 percent year-on-year for ICT and 15 percent year-on-year for tourism are unlikely to materialize amid a still-weak economy and a 4 percent year-on-year drop in foreign tourist arrivals. Tensions in the Middle East and high oil prices have caused Thailand to face twin deficits, with a trade deficit of 12.4 billion US dollars and a current account deficit of 13.3 billion US dollars in the first half of 2026. Elevated oil prices also increase the risk of government price intervention, which would pressure margins for downstream oil and gas businesses and could push inflation higher in the second half of 2026. While the Bank of Thailand views current inflation as likely temporary, the research team believes the central bank will not raise interest rates at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on August 26, 2026. Regarding the Senate election collusion case, the Election Commission expects to conclude the investigation by the end of August, but the timeline may be extended. The most likely scenario is that charges will be filed against only some individuals, which would negatively affect market sentiment, and the broader legal proceedings would take longer than before. The SET currently trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 times, but this drops to 14 times when excluding DELTA, which has a forward P/E of 83 times. CGSI maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points. Positive factors that could support the market include an easing of geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices, while downside risks are the Election Commission filing charges against key politicians from coalition parties and a sharp slowdown in tourist arrivals.

Krungsri Securities expects Central Retail Corporation, or CRC, to post a normalised profit of 1.40 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 4 percent from the same period last year but down 52 percent from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors. Although there is no recognition of profit from the department store business in Italy of around 406 million baht as in the prior year, the core businesses in Thailand and Vietnam are recovering strongly, with same-store sales turning positive at 1 percent from a negative 2 percent in the first quarter. Meanwhile, gross margins across all business segments have improved, and the selling and administrative expense-to-sales ratio is expected to decline by 129 basis points from a year earlier. Interest costs fell 31 percent, leading to a normalised profit margin expansion of about 50 basis points compared with the prior year. The research team maintains a buy recommendation with a target price of 27.50 baht.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated that the overall retail sector in 2026 will slow in line with purchasing power, with the modern retail market expected to grow only 1.5 to 2.5 percent, down from 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2025, and average same-store sales for the group are expected to be flat. However, the general merchandise, home improvement, and lifestyle segments still have room to expand branches and gain market share from small retailers, with same-store sales growth forecast at 3 percent for MOSHI, 2 percent for CPALL, and 1 percent for MRDIYT. Meanwhile, big-ticket items and hypermarkets are under pressure, with CRC's same-store sales seen flat, while HMPRO and GLOBAL are expected to decline 1 percent. The research team forecasts core profit for the group in 2026 to 2027 to grow at an average of 7 percent per year, but growth will be concentrated, with MOSHI and MRDIYT standing out at 18 percent and 17 percent per year respectively, driven by aggressive store opening plans relative to their current base. CRC continues to grow, and excluding the 691 million baht profit from Rinascente sold in the fourth quarter of 2025, profit from continuing operations would grow 11 percent per year. The investment strategy focuses on stock picking rather than buying the whole sector, with a market-weight allocation, and recommends MOSHI, MRDIYT, and CRC as top picks.

Central Food Retail has announced a major investment to renovate Tops Robinson Hat Yai City, relocating its service area to the first floor of the Robinson Hat Yai shopping centre. The move aims to support the southern economy's recovery after the floods in late 2025 and to benefit from Malaysian tourists travelling through the new Sadao checkpoint. Managing Director Thanawat Jirajariyavej revealed that this branch will expand its range of quality products to more than 17,000 items, covering agricultural goods, fresh food, imported products, and an I LOVE THAILAND zone for local products. It will also enhance risk management measures by installing flood prevention systems and creating risk assessment maps to build customer confidence. The investment also aims to stimulate local employment and connect products from farmers and small entrepreneurs to Tops' nationwide distribution network.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited, or CRC, informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand that Central Trading Company Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of CRC, has joined with ICC International Public Company Limited, or ICC, to establish a new company named Heritage Croc Thailand Company Limited. Central Trading holds an 80 percent stake, while ICC holds 20 percent. The establishment of this company aims to expand the fashion brand business portfolio and strengthen the growth potential of CRC's fashion business group. The new company will engage in the import and distribution of fashion products under the Lacoste brand in Thailand.

Three brokers expect the Thai stock market to move sideways this afternoon in a range of 1,644 to 1,657 points. Asia Plus says the index has limited downside after the market has already priced in a base-case US tariff of 15–20 percent. It is also watching today's cabinet meeting, which may extend the deadline for appealing state welfare card decisions to 20 September 2026 and prepare assistance for those who do not qualify through the Thai Helps Thai Plus programme at 1,000 baht per month from August to September 2026, a slight positive for grassroots retail stocks such as CPALL, CPAXT, BJC, and CRC. ASL views the morning session as edging higher on buying in large-cap stocks and the parts sector after South Korea reported a 52.3 percent rise in exports, but selling in banking stocks weighed after second-quarter earnings reports. Globlex says the index is consolidating above all EMA lines, supported by buying in energy, construction materials, and ICT, but has yet to break resistance at 1,655 points due to a lack of new catalysts. The index closed the morning session at 1,651.45 points, up 5.45 points or 0.33 percent, with turnover of 53.53 billion baht.

KGI Securities forecasts that Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited, or CRC, will see its lowest profit of the year in the second quarter of 2026, before recovering in the second half. The firm maintains a buy recommendation on CRC shares.