Thai Airways International Public Company Limited

Krungsri Securities expects THAI's third-quarter 2026 performance to recover from the previous quarter due to a low base in the second quarter, while jet fuel prices are trending lower. THAI management views high fuel prices as an opportunity to push into the short-haul market and continue its network strategy, because budget airlines are weakening as their business models are less flexible to fuel price volatility than THAI's. The company targets 2027 capacity growth of more than 15% from the prior year, under a fleet expansion plan to 111 aircraft from 102 expected at the end of 2026. Krungsri Securities maintains a buy rating with a 2027 target price of 8.00 baht, and forecasts 2026 normalized profit of 15.388 billion baht, down 43% from the prior year, before returning to 5% growth in 2027 to 16.206 billion baht.

Thai Airways expects operating profit for 2026 to meet its target after first-half operating profit of 17.437 billion baht and net profit of 11.645 billion baht. The company is proceeding with its JUMP+ plan, expanding its fleet to 102 aircraft by the end of this year and to 128 aircraft in 2028, while raising its fuel-price hedging ratio from 50% to 60%. The government is pushing Thai Airways to resume direct Bangkok-Auckland flights earlier than the original 2028 plan and sees an opportunity to cooperate with Air New Zealand through a code-share arrangement. Meanwhile, Tisco Securities expects six new entrants to the FTSE Small Cap index: BTS, FTREIT, LH, SCCC, THAI and TU, effective at the closing price on 18 September.

Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, said the visit to New Zealand with Anutin Charnvirakul, Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, aims to attract investment and proactively upgrade economic relations. New Zealand investors are interested in Thailand as a market, production base, and regional connector, while Thai investors hold a 20% stake in the premium honey business Comvita and have invested in leading hotel businesses. The government wants to turn pressure from the energy crisis and cost of living into opportunity by cooperating on agriculture, post-harvest technology, food science, clean energy, and modern technology, while pushing Thailand to become a regional distribution hub. Discussions were held with T&G Global to set up a distribution centre in Thailand and link with Central Group, a major importer. On tourism, the Thai and New Zealand prime ministers agreed to accelerate support for Thai Airways to resume direct Bangkok–Auckland flights, coordinating with the chairman of Thai Airways International and Auckland Airport executives to prepare slots and flight times. If Thai Airways receives new aircraft, this route will be among the first to be considered.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, reported second quarter 2026 results with total revenue of 48.621 billion baht, up 8.5% from the same period last year, and net profit of 1.537 billion baht. Operating profit before finance costs was 3.691 billion baht and EBITDA was 8.182 billion baht. For the first half, total revenue was 99.65 billion baht, up 3.3%, with net profit of 11.645 billion baht. Passenger transport accounted for 83.6% of total revenue, while cargo transport generated more than 9.7 billion baht, nearly 10% of total revenue. As of 30 June 2026, the company had 84 aircraft serving 62 destinations in 28 countries and held the top market share at Suvarnabhumi Airport at 24%. The company aims to increase market share to 35% by 2033 and expects to have 102 aircraft by the end of 2026, rising to 111 in 2027 and 128 in 2028. Under the JUMP+ programme, the company targets 14-15% revenue growth in 2028, while increasing the proportion of fuel price hedging from 50% to 60% and extending the forward hedging period from one year to two years.

Thailand and New Zealand signed a joint declaration on strategic partnership to elevate bilateral relations. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a joint press conference at Government House in Auckland, New Zealand, setting a target to triple two-way trade to 7.5 billion US dollars, or approximately 246 billion baht, by 2045 under the Thailand–New Zealand Joint Plan of Action 2026–2030. The plan covers cooperation in politics and security, economy, trade and innovation, education, culture, and people-to-people ties, as well as regional and multilateral cooperation. Both sides also witnessed the signing of four cooperation documents covering culture, civil service, police, and the private sector. The Thai Prime Minister also sought New Zealand's support for Thailand's accession to the OECD, which New Zealand is fully ready to support, and Thai Airways plans to resume direct Bangkok–Auckland flights in March 2027.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that forward indicators for the hotel sector in the third quarter of 2069 remain strong compared with a year earlier, with Central Plaza Hotel having on-the-book revenue per available room up 15 percent, followed by The Erawan Group targeting revenue growth of 7 percent, and Minor International's on-the-book European hotel revenue per available room up 4 percent, with Thailand up 10 percent. July revenue per available room supports this trend, with Central Plaza Hotel Group up 13 percent and Thailand up 18 percent, The Erawan Group up 5 percent and its economy-to-luxury segment up 8 percent, with luxury up 15 percent, and Minor International's Europe up 4 percent and Thailand up 14 to 16 percent. Airports of Thailand's international passengers during the first 15 days of August were still up 2.5 percent year on year, compared with a decline of 1.7 percent year on year in July, reflecting resilient travel amid the war situation. Meanwhile, the average weekly jet fuel price for the week ending 14 August was around 159 US dollars per barrel, below the peak of 209 US dollars per barrel in April, helping ease pressure on travel costs. The research team selects stocks with company-specific support factors and laggard prices relative to the SET index, namely Central Plaza Hotel and Airports of Thailand, while Thai Airways is viewed as tactical on the assumption of lower jet fuel prices. It notes that if Brent crude exceeds 100 US dollars per barrel for several consecutive days, that would be a tactical trigger to consider reducing weightings in tourism-related stocks to limit risk.

Asia Plus Securities' research team said profits of 283 Thai listed companies out of 682 that have reported second-quarter results came in 11.9% above market expectations. Combined with estimates for the remaining companies, which cover 93% of market capitalisation, it assesses that total second-quarter profit could reach 355 billion baht, up 6.7% from the previous quarter and 8.2% from a year earlier. This raises expectations that second-quarter profit for fiscal 2026 may set a record high, continuing from the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The main growth drivers are petrochemicals, packaging and energy. Including commodity-linked groups such as energy, petrochemicals, food and agriculture, they would account for 44% of total market profit, compared with a normal level of about 30%. The research team views that first-half profit already represents 60% of the full-year target, reducing pressure in the third and fourth quarters and opening upside to the market-wide earnings per share estimate of 95 baht per share, which gives room for the index target to be revised upward. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows into the Thai stock market slowed clearly in August, with cumulative net selling of nearly 10 billion baht, while retail investors were net buyers supporting the index. The research team recommends three stock groups: companies with better-than-expected results such as IRPC, TCAP, KCE and CENTEL; companies benefiting from commodities and geopolitics such as TASCO, RCL, BCP and PTTGC; and companies expected to recover in the second half such as THAI, ERW and BCH. Its top three picks are PTT, BDMS and CENTEL.

The Bangkok Civil Court has dismissed a case brought by Dr. Chermsak Pinthong and five co-plaintiffs seeking to revoke resolutions passed at Thai Airways International Public Company Limited's 2025 annual general meeting of shareholders. The court found that the appointment of the new board of directors complied with the company's articles of association. Although the case may still be contested on appeal and at the Supreme Court level, this ruling removes one legal obstacle for Thai Airways. Thai Airways shares resumed trading on 4 August 2025, closing at 14.70 baht on the first day, compared with the last closing price of 3.32 baht before trading was suspended, and at one point reached a high of 19.40 baht. However, after news of the lawsuit and a temporary injunction, the share price fell below 10 baht from October 2025 and currently trades around 6 baht. The company's operating position has strengthened, having exited its rehabilitation plan in mid-2025 with outstanding debt reduced to 95 billion baht from nearly 200 billion baht. Full-year 2025 results showed a net profit of 28 billion baht and a dividend of 0.24 baht per share. In the first half of 2026, net profit was 11.645 billion baht. As of 30 June 2026, Thai Airways had total assets of 322.085 billion baht, up 5.9% from the end of 2025, while shareholders' equity rose by 81.833 billion baht, an increase of 7.8%, and cash on hand stood at 123.757 billion baht. The debt-to-equity ratio fell from 12.5 times to no more than 2 times. The company also plans to expand its fleet, taking delivery of nine new aircraft in the first half of the year.

Leading securities firms assess that Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, posted stronger-than-expected core profit in the second quarter of 2026, despite pressure from sharply higher jet fuel prices. Net profit came in at 1.528 billion baht, with core profit of about 1.110 to 1.219 billion baht. Revenue from the main business grew around 8.8 to 9 percent year-on-year to about 47.121 billion baht, driven by a 16 to 20 percent increase in average fares and a 28 percent rise in cargo revenue. However, net profit fell 85 to 87 percent from a year earlier and dropped 85 percent from the previous quarter, because of the low travel season and jet fuel costs that rose as much as 73 percent year-on-year, with the average price reaching 187 US dollars per barrel. Most brokers maintain buy or hold recommendations, with target prices ranging from 6.20 to 8.00 baht, and expect second-half earnings to recover clearly in the fourth quarter thanks to the peak travel season and an increase in the fuel hedging ratio to 40 percent.

Krungsri Securities forecasts Thai stock market profits for the second quarter of 2026 at 250 to 280 billion baht, down 15 to 24 percent from a year earlier and down 19 to 26 percent from the previous quarter. The refinery group saw volatile earnings on the downside, while the industrial goods, ICT, and power sectors are expected to post profit growth. The research team recommends a speculative strategy on stocks whose results will stand out or have passed their trough. Stocks expected to show Q2 profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include PTTEP, SCC, SCGP, ADVANC, TRUE, BH, IVL, THANI, TNP, MOSHI, BA, AP, INSET, and ADVICE. Stocks for which Q2 is likely the year's low point and earnings will accelerate in the second half of 2026 include KTB, KBANK, AOT, BDMS, EGCO, ICHI, THAI, and TFG. The top picks are ADVANC, SCC, IVL, BH, KBANK, AOT, and ICHI.

Asia Plus Securities recommends CPALL, DOHOME, and THAI as standout stocks benefiting from the decline in Brent crude oil prices below 80 US dollars per barrel, following hopes for a temporary agreement in the Strait of Hormuz. This has led the market to reduce the probability of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates to 4.0 percent, down to 53 percent from 67 percent previously, while US Treasury yields have fallen by more than 1 percent, supporting US stock indices to gain between 1.7 and 2.6 percent and sending continued positive momentum to Asian equity markets, with South Korea surging 3.7 percent and Japan up 3.1 percent. The research team also advises closely monitoring US economic data this week, as well as the direction of the yen, which could experience a short squeeze if the Bank of Japan intervenes in the market. In the technology sector, the US Federal Communications Commission is preparing to ban imports of new optical transceivers from China within this year, which is negative for Chinese manufacturers such as DR: ZJINNO80 but positive for US producers, recommending short-term speculation in DR: COHR23 and DR: LITE80. Meanwhile, SanDisk and SK Hynix have jointly launched HBF memory chips to address bottlenecks in AI inference workloads, with the market forecasting that SanDisk's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 will grow 354 percent and earnings per share will surge as much as 11,751 percent compared to the same period last year, thus recommending speculation through DR: SNDK03. On the domestic economic front, the market expects July 2026 inflation to expand by 2.55 percent, while the research team assesses that second-half inflation will move within a range of 2.65 to 2.85 percent, consistent with the Bank of Thailand's target framework, making it highly likely that the central bank will maintain the policy rate at 1.0 percent through year-end. Regarding the Thai stock market, although regional markets have advanced, the SET Index may rise less due to the heavy weighting of commodity stocks at 25.1 percent of total market capitalization, and there is potential for profit-taking as the index tests resistance at 1,350 points. Foreign capital flows are beginning to show signs of slowing and switching to net selling, causing a rotation into stocks primarily reliant on domestic economic activity. The investment strategy therefore recommends CPALL, which benefits from increased domestic purchasing power amid falling oil prices, DOHOME, whose second-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to grow strongly from higher gross margins, and THAI, which gains from lower jet fuel costs and whose share price still lags the tourism sector. The research team also provides additional advice for international portfolio allocation, suggesting speculation in DR: ZIJIN80 and DR: COHR23.

Thai Airways is moving forward with a flexible strategy to maintain profitability amid changing fuel costs and competitive conditions. The airline will adjust fares according to the market and grow per-passenger revenue through the Star Alliance network to boost load factors and fully utilize fleet potential. Chief Executive Officer Chai Eamsiri said the company continues to adhere to strict cost discipline, which helped it remain profitable in the first half of 2026 after exiting its rehabilitation plan. It is preparing to take delivery of Airbus A321 aircraft between August and September to increase frequencies on routes to Europe, Australia, and Asia, as well as launch new routes during the high season from late in the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027. In addition, the company plans to invest in an aircraft maintenance center at U-Tapao on a 210-rai site with an initial budget of 10 to 13 billion baht. Construction will begin in 2027, with commercial operations starting in 2030, creating a new long-term revenue stream and advancing toward becoming a regional maintenance hub.

CGS International Securities Thailand, or CGSI, estimates the SET index range today at 1,615 to 1,640 points, supported by the Dow closing at a record high after US-Iran tensions eased, dragging down oil prices and US Treasury yields. The Dow closed at 53,178.41 points, up 693.38 points or 1.32 percent, while West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery tumbled 4.33 dollars or 5.11 percent to settle at 80.34 dollars per barrel. CGSI recommends THAI, expecting profit to bottom in the second quarter of 2026 before recovering in the second half of 2026 and accelerating further in 2027, driven by lower jet fuel costs and fleet expansion. It also recommends DELTA, forecasting strong revenue growth in the second half of 2026 as margins gradually improve, with third-quarter 2026 revenue estimated to grow around 15 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Krungsri Securities has upgraded its recommendation on Thai Airways International to buy from hold, and raised its target price to 7.90 baht from 5.70 baht, after the carrier's performance during the war in the second quarter of 2026 was not as dire as feared. It estimates a normalised profit of 726 million baht, better than an earlier forecast of a loss of more than 5 to 6 billion baht. The research team has revised up its 2026 normalised profit forecast to 15.285 billion baht from a previously expected loss of 3.335 billion baht, and expects earnings to continue recovering in the second half of 2026 as war-related pressures ease. However, in the near term there is still pressure from the unlocking of more than 20 billion debt-to-equity conversion shares, which will begin trading on 4 August 2026.

Thai Airways is set to immediately invest 10.3 billion baht in its aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul centre, or MRO, project. Both phases will proceed at the same time instead of being rolled out sequentially, after the project was delayed by half a year. The project includes two hangars capable of accommodating six wide-body aircraft simultaneously. Construction is expected to take about two years, with operations starting in 2029 to 2030. Thai Airways' own aircraft will be serviced first. The investment comes from a previous capital increase through a share offering. Meanwhile, on 3 August 2026, the lock-up period for 19.8 billion THAI shares will expire, and trading will resume on 4 August 2026. The company has not held prior discussions with creditors who converted debt to equity at 2.5452 baht per share.

Thai Airways International is set to sign a lease agreement for a 210-rai aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul project site at U-Tapao with the Eastern Economic Corridor Office on 4 August, with the contract start date set for 1 September 2026. The EEC secretary-general stated that the area is ready for handover to Thai Airways on schedule, and further details will be finalised, including inviting co-investors and applying for incentives. Thai Airways estimates the project investment value at approximately 13 billion baht, with construction to begin in 2027 and operations to commence in 2030 under a 50-year lease. The government will receive returns from a fixed land rental rate adjusted according to the Treasury Department rate, along with a stepped revenue-sharing arrangement. During years one to four, only land rent will be collected, and revenue sharing will begin when income is generated in year five, with a rate of 3 percent in years five to ten, 5 percent in years eleven to fifteen, and 7 percent from year fifteen onwards.

Asia Plus Securities says Middle East risks are easing after the US halted strikes, Iran scaled back retaliation, and diplomatic talks resumed. This has pulled Brent crude down from above 100 dollars a barrel to 88 dollars a barrel. However, factors to watch remain, including US-Iran negotiations, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and tensions in the Red Sea. Polymarket indicates the chance of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal operations is just 16 percent in August, 30 percent in September, and 60 percent in December. The research team therefore recommends a short-term strategy tilting more towards de-escalation trades, reducing some exposure to oil-play stocks and rotating into beneficiaries of lower oil prices, while maintaining tactical hedges. It flags nine stocks: Centel, Minor International, Erawan, Thai Airways, Bangkok Airways, B.Grimm, GPSC, Gulf, and Dohome.

Chai Eamsiri, Chief Executive Officer of Thai Airways International, or THAI, revealed that both domestic and international institutional investors continue to have confidence in the business direction, placing more weight on fundamentals and growth opportunities than on pressure from the full share unlock on 3 August 2026. After the first 25% share unlock earlier this year did not significantly affect confidence, the company is beginning to see signs of recovery in travel demand in the third quarter of 2026, especially from the European market, which is driving better forward bookings. The company is also focusing on maintaining yield rather than competing on price, and has plans to gradually take delivery of various new aircraft models under a five-year fleet management plan to improve efficiency and reduce costs. In addition, if the company can generate profits as targeted, there is a chance of resuming dividend payments, which would be another factor reflecting a return to normalcy after the rehabilitation.

CGSI revealed that THAI management maintains a positive outlook on the aviation industry, as passenger travel demand remains high and seat capacity constraints support unit revenue. Although higher jet fuel prices are a short-term negative factor, management believes the impact is manageable and the company will enforce stricter cost controls. In the long term, aircraft deliveries will be a key driver of revenue growth. Management disclosed that forward bookings declined in the second quarter of 2026 due to Middle East conflicts, but actual travel demand remains strong, reflected in persistently high passenger load factors despite fare increases. The company prioritizes yield over load factor and does not employ aggressive price-cutting strategies, but reduced seat capacity below the original plan in May to June 2026 to preserve profitability. Operations are expected to normalize in the third quarter of 2026, supported by strong air freight demand for electronics and the peak tourism season in Europe. THAI plans to expand its fleet to 102 aircraft by the end of 2026, including 28 new aircraft and the retirement of 6 older ones. Available seat kilometers are expected to grow at a single-digit rate this year and at a double-digit rate in 2027 to 2028 as new aircraft enter service, along with increased flight frequencies on European, Indian, and Chinese routes. The new fleet will feature business class suites and premium economy seats, set to enter service in 2027, enhancing service quality, pricing power, and operational efficiency. CGSI maintains a buy recommendation on THAI with a target price of 8 baht, citing lower oil prices and high travel demand as positives, while risks include yield pressure from competition and weaker-than-expected tourism demand.

AerCap has delivered the first new GE-powered Boeing 787-9 aircraft to Thai Airways International. The delivery took place during a ceremony at the Boeing Delivery Center in Everett, Seattle, attended by representatives from Thai Airways, Boeing, GE, and AerCap. Peter Anderson, AerCap's Chief Commercial Officer, said the milestone reflects a decades-long partnership and will support Thai Airways' fleet renewal program. Thai Airways CEO Chai Eamsiri noted the aircraft's efficiency and range will help grow the airline's network while offering passengers a more comfortable, modern experience.