Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited

Asia Plus Securities recommends that investors increase their cash allocation and focus on stocks with strong fundamentals, after Vietnam's stock market is set to gain a higher weighting in the FTSE Russell index. The move is expected to attract around 3 billion US dollars, or approximately 100 billion baht, in foreign investment over four phases from September 2026 to September 2027. This has triggered profit-taking across Asian equity markets, including the Thai stock market, which has faced net selling of more than 112.5 million US dollars. The research team recommends Bangkok Bank, Charoen Pokphand Foods, and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, while also suggesting hedging foreign portfolio risk through gold depositary receipts GOLD19 and Disney depositary receipts Disney19. This comes amid uncertainty over US import tariffs on Chinese goods, which are set to rise by another 7.5 percent to 20 percent before the US-China leaders' meeting on 24 September 2026, and as US public debt has reached 40.05 trillion US dollars.

Charoen Pokphand Foods, or CPF, has announced an interim dividend of 0.45 baht per share. The stock will trade ex-dividend on 31 August 2026, with payment on 11 September 2026. If an investor used 300,000 baht to buy CPF shares at 23.40 baht on 21 August 2026, they would receive about 12,800 shares and earn roughly 5,760 baht in dividends before tax. However, investing still carries risk from share price volatility, which could affect the cost.

The Department of Internal Trade met with the Swine Raisers Association, broiler and layer associations, and major operators on 20 August 2026 to monitor price conditions and manage supply balance. It said consumption demand has continued to rise under the Thai Helps Thai Plus programme, causing farm-gate prices to adjust in line with market mechanisms. Mr. Sitthiphan Thanakiatphinyo, president of the National Swine Raisers Association, said live hog farm-gate prices are at 72 to 74 baht per kilogramme, 1 to 2 baht above cost, and may edge up slightly over the next one to two weeks before stabilising until mid-September. Kasikorn Securities assessed that farm-gate pork prices are likely to rise by 2 baht per kilogramme because output has fallen as pigs grow more slowly and face higher illness risk during the rainy season, which is positive for CPF, BTG and TFG if feed costs do not increase.

CPF shares rose 2.67% to 23.10 baht after ASL Securities took a positive view on the profit outlook for the second half of 2026, expecting net profit to expand both compared with the first half and the same period last year. This is supported by Thai swine prices, which are expected to rise 23% to 75 baht per kilogram, and Chinese swine prices, which have already passed their lowest point. Management sees a chance for Chinese swine prices to recover to 12 to 13 yuan per kilogram from 10.1 yuan in the second quarter of 2026, while demand for chicken exports to Europe is expected to grow 8 to 9 percent. ASL Securities maintained a buy recommendation with a 2027 target price of 24.10 baht, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 times, and expects a 2026 dividend yield of 4.0 percent. CPF will pay an interim dividend of 0.45 baht per share, with the stock trading ex-dividend on 31 August 2026 and the dividend paid on 11 September 2026.

Asia Plus Securities has warned that three risk factors are pressuring risky assets worldwide, dragging Asian equities sharply lower, and expressed concern over the Thai economy after the second-quarter current account deficit reached as high as 17.7 billion US dollars, or about 12 percent of GDP, the most severe compared with past crises. The brokerage recommends investors adjust portfolios defensively, focusing on commodities, energy, retail, and high-dividend stocks, while highlighting PTT, CPF, and KLINIQ as safe-haven picks. The three risk factors are tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed Brent crude to 91.3 US dollars per barrel, the highest in 25 days; the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.71 percent and the 30-year yield touching 5.29 percent, pressuring technology stock valuations; and institutional investors increasing short positions in NASDAQ100 futures by more than 41 percent over two weeks to 109,700 contracts. That sent the NASDAQ index to its lowest in two weeks and dragged the KOSPI down 5.46 percent, the Nikkei down 2.37 percent, Taiwan down 1.20 percent, and Singapore down 1.16 percent. For the Thai economy, the current account in the second quarter of 2026 swung to a deficit for the first time in eight quarters, due to surging imported fuel costs and freight rates. The trade balance recorded a deficit of 12.1 billion US dollars, while the services balance deficit also widened, pressuring the baht. Foreign investors opened net short positions in TFEX as high as 23,212 contracts in a single day and have sold a net total of more than 6.2 billion baht in Thai equities since the start of the month. Asia Plus Securities recommends a selective buy strategy in three main groups: beneficiaries of higher oil prices and freight rates such as PTTEP, PSL, RCL, and PRM; companies with recovering third-quarter 2026 earnings and benefits from a weaker baht such as CPF, ITC, DELTA, HANA, KCE, BH, BDMS, and PR9; and domestic consumption, tourism, and advertising media names such as CPALL, CENTEL, ERW, and VGI. The top picks of the day are PTT, which benefits from oil prices and offers high dividends; CPF, which gains from the weaker baht and recovering meat prices and is set to trade ex-dividend on 31 August 2026 with an interim dividend of 0.45 baht per share; and KLINIQ, whose second-half outlook is strong with a chance of raising its sales target from the current expected growth of 20 percent year on year.

CGSI highlighted key points from CPF's analyst meeting, noting that the Vietnam business continues to grow strongly in both swine and poultry, while CPF is preparing an IPO of CP Vietnam at around 10% of registered capital. The plan is pending approval from Vietnam's State Securities Commission, and CPF will retain a majority stake. The swine business in Vietnam remains a key profit driver amid African swine fever, which is limiting supply and supporting hog prices. The broiler business is expected to keep growing on strong exports to Japan and South Korea, and the company is in talks to expand access to the European Union market. It is also moving ahead with expanding poultry farm production capacity, with new capacity expected to come on stream gradually over the next one to two years. For the China business, CTI, a joint venture in which CPF holds 35%, continues to face pressure from a weak hog market. In the second quarter of 2026, it contributed a loss share of about 2 billion baht to CPF, and CPF has reduced swine farm production capacity in China by about 5% compared with a year earlier. Management estimates that rebalancing supply and demand may take another one to two years before profitability recovers significantly.

Phillip Securities Thailand says CPF reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 4.076 billion baht, down 61 percent from a year earlier, while sales revenue was 147.186 billion baht, flat from the prior year. Profit was pressured by low hog prices across the region, especially in China, as well as higher energy and freight costs. However, the company managed expenses and reduced financial costs better. The second half shows clear recovery signs, with hog prices in Thailand, Vietnam and China expected to improve, especially Chinese hog prices which could rise to 12 to 13 yuan per kilogram in the fourth quarter of 2026 after the government moved to cut the sow herd to address oversupply. In addition, the chicken export business has a positive outlook from the high season and strong demand in Japan and Europe. The company has also stocked raw materials for more than 100 days to manage risk from volatile corn prices. The IPO of its Vietnam business is still progressing, currently awaiting approval from regulators, with a target to launch the share sale within 2026, which would help unlock business value and strengthen its financial position. Phillip Securities maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 21.264 billion baht and a target price of 23.30 baht, implying upside of about 3.5 percent, while expecting a full-year dividend of 1.01 baht per share, a dividend yield of about 4.5 percent. It recommends gradually accumulating the stock.

Bualuang Securities released its review of the financial statements of 11 companies, finding that 8 reported better-than-expected profits: GUNKUL, CK, SPRC, CPF, CBG, AWC, HANA, and BCH. STECON and BH posted profits in line with expectations, while BTS reported a smaller loss than expected. GUNKUL posted core profit of 567 million baht, 7% above expectations. CK posted core profit of 800 million baht, 17% above expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.20 baht per share. SPRC posted core profit of 7.09 billion baht, 11% above expectations, and announced a first-half dividend of 0.50 baht per share. CPF posted core profit of 4.57 billion baht, 13% above market expectations. CBG posted core profit of 736 million baht, 13% above expectations. AWC posted core profit of 232 million baht, above expectations. HANA posted core profit of 278 million baht, 25% above expectations. BCH posted core profit of 343 million baht, 13% above expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.15 baht per share. STECON posted core profit of 910 million baht, in line with expectations. BH posted core profit of 1.89 billion baht, in line with expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 4 baht per share. BTS reported a core loss of 601 million baht, smaller than the slight profit originally expected.

Asia Plus Securities' research department said second-quarter 2026 profits of Thai listed companies were the highest on record, beating expectations by about 13%, but still lagging US tech stocks, where NASDAQ beat expectations by 53%, causing some funds to rotate into tech stocks and keeping Thai stocks under pressure and hard to move. It recommends stocks with supportive factors, namely PTT, GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, and stocks expected to post standout third-quarter profits, namely CPF, BDMS, BH, PR9, and KCE. Data from 594 companies, representing 98% of market capitalisation, show second-quarter 2026 net profit surged to 386 billion baht, growing 10.8% quarter-on-quarter and 12.5% year-on-year, with the energy sector contributing as much as one-third of profits. Commodity-linked stocks such as energy, petrochemicals, food, and agriculture accounted for as much as 44% of total market profit, compared with the normal level of about 30%. First-half profit already accounted for more than 60% of full-year estimates, making third- and fourth-quarter profit targets of only about 19% per quarter, or roughly 228 billion baht, not difficult to achieve. There is also a chance that full-year EPS estimates will be revised upward at year-end, adding upside to the SET Index.

Charoen Pokphand Foods, or CPF, announced that C.P. Vietnam Corporation, a subsidiary in which CPF indirectly holds 100 percent, has entered into a share purchase agreement for common shares of Les Vergers Du Mekong Joint Stock Company, or LVDM, with LVDM shareholders. The total value is 235.058 billion Vietnamese dong, or approximately 336 million baht, representing 76.57 percent of LVDM's issued and paid-up shares. After the transaction is completed, LVDM will become a subsidiary of CPF. LVDM is a company incorporated in Vietnam and operates in the production and distribution of premium non-alcoholic beverages and fruit-based food products. The acquisition of LVDM will help the CPV group enter the beverage business and create growth opportunities, including expansion into export markets in the future.

Bualuang Securities assesses the SET Index over the final five months of 2026 to be in a sideways-up trend, with a range of 1,580 to 1,700 points. Mr. Piriyapol Khongwanit, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, stated that first-half earnings of Thai listed companies grew strongly, leading to an upward revision of the market's earnings per share estimate by about 4% to 103 baht. When rolling over to mid-2027, the SET Index target becomes 1,710 points. The index is expected to peak in the fourth quarter, supported by the high season for tourism, stable high crude oil prices, and continued foreign capital inflows. Notably, net inflows in July reached as high as 47 billion baht, bringing total net purchases since the start of the year to around 74 billion baht. In the second half, there is potential for additional foreign inflows of 160 to 200 billion baht. On investment strategy, a barbell portfolio is recommended, balancing growth stocks and high-dividend stocks, highlighting five key themes: Long-term Growth, such as GULF, WHAUP, and GUNKUL; Defensive and Yield Play, such as KTB; Normalization and Stimulus, such as COM7, CRC, ERW, and CBG; Event Play from Super El Niño, such as CPF, BTG, and ICHI; and Geopolitical and Inflation Hedge, such as PTT and PTTGC. It also advises avoiding property and asset management stocks due to fragile domestic purchasing power. Meanwhile, US technology stocks remain positive despite short-term corrections, recommending accumulation of quality growth names with clear earnings and valuation support. For Thai technology stocks, only short-term speculative trading is suggested. Mr. Chaiporn Nompitakcharoen, Managing Director of Securities Business at Bualuang Securities, disclosed that for the final five months, the recommended portfolio allocation is 74% equities, 22% fixed income, and 4% alternative assets and gold. The US stock market is viewed as the most attractive, while the firm continues to expand its wealth advisory business and promote block trades to capture the uptrend.

InnovestX Securities states that the signing of an MOU extending the employment period for over four million Myanmar workers in Thailand by another five years will help unlock the most critical labour bottleneck for Thailand's labour-intensive industrial sector. It also aims to push bilateral trade value to 12 billion US dollars, up from around 7.4 billion dollars, through accelerating border checkpoint restoration, using local currency payment systems, and promoting infrastructure investment, especially the Dawei Special Economic Zone project. However, risks remain from Western sanctions that could pressure the valuation of stocks with concessions or direct investment linked to the Myanmar military government. For short-term investment strategy, the firm recommends speculative trading based on news factors for beneficiary stocks, divided into two themes: groups directly benefiting from more stable labour cost management, such as CK, STECON, GFPT, BTG, CPF, and groups benefiting from a recovering border trade atmosphere, such as MEGA, TNP, CBG, OSP, CHG, BCH.

Bualuang Securities expects the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to climb to 1,700 points by the end of 2026, supported by foreign fund inflows projected to reach 160 billion baht in net buying for the full year. This follows net purchases of around 70 billion baht since the start of the year, driven by strong earnings growth among listed companies, particularly in the energy and petrochemical sectors, and the appeal of high dividend yields in Thai equities. For the second half, the investment strategy focuses on selective stock picking in sectors with positive catalysts. These include power plant operators benefiting from green energy demand, with recommendations for GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL, and WHAUP. The electronics sector is recovering in line with global cycles and AI investment, with KCE as a top pick. Commercial banks offering high dividends are favored, with KBANK and KTB highlighted. Tourism and hotel stocks, where earnings have bottomed out, are represented by ERW and AWC. Consumer goods and food companies poised to gain from hotter weather include CBG and CPF. In portfolio allocation, Bualuang Securities advises investors who can tolerate risk to allocate 60 to 70 percent to equities, split into 30 percent Thai stocks and 70 percent foreign stocks, with the remainder in debt instruments and bonds, primarily focusing on Thai debt securities.

Finansia Syrus Securities has raised its target for the SET Index to 1,710 points by mid-2027, based on an estimated average earnings per share of 100.5 baht and a target PER of 17 times. The research team lifted its 2026 earnings per share estimate by 3 percent to 99 baht, and its 2027 estimate to 102 baht, reflecting growth of 13 percent and 4 percent from the prior year, respectively. It also sees the Thai economy recovering steadily and foreign capital flows having a chance to return to the Thai stock market, as foreign investors' holdings of Thai equities remain below past peaks. Recommended top picks include BA, BBL, BDMS, CPALL, CPF, CPN, ERW, GULF, SAPPE, STA, and TIDLOR.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce reported that Thai exports in June 2026 reached 34.66 billion dollars, up 20.8 percent from the same month last year, extending growth for a 24th consecutive month and exceeding market expectations of 13.7 to 15.2 percent. Meanwhile, imports totaled 41.19 billion dollars, rising 50.3 percent, resulting in a June trade deficit of 6.53 billion dollars. For the first half of the year, exports amounted to 196.74 billion dollars, up 17.6 percent, and imports reached 228.49 billion dollars, up 38.0 percent, leading to a cumulative trade deficit of 31.74 billion dollars. Analysts at Yuanta Securities noted that the stronger-than-expected exports and the deficit are factors weighing on the currency, and highlighted five stock groups poised to benefit: rubber, which returned to growth of 12.5 percent after 14 months, supporting STA, NER, and TEGH; processed chicken, supporting GFPT, TFG, and CPF; pet food, which continued to grow 22.3 percent for a tenth straight month, supporting ITC and AAI; canned seafood, which resumed expansion at 17.5 percent, supporting TU; and electronic components, which accelerated growth, supporting SMT, CCET, KCE, and HANA.

Analysts assess that the baht is likely to continue weakening in the third quarter of 2026, with Krungsri expecting a trading range of 32 to 34 baht per US dollar and full-year exports possibly expanding by 9.8 percent. Meanwhile, analysts at Bualuang Securities view that the agricultural and food export sector will clearly recover in the second half of the year, with the weak second-quarter earnings caused by geopolitical factors and freight costs marking the low point of the year. They therefore recommend accumulating BTG as the top pick, followed by CPF and ITC in the pet food segment, which is supported by real demand and an expanding new customer base. TU, on the other hand, mainly benefits from foreign exchange gains only.

Brokers are advising investors to gradually accumulate stocks in the meat and beverage sectors before the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon become pronounced from late this year into early next year. This follows the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official declaration on June 11, 2026, that the world has entered El Niño conditions, with a 63% chance it will intensify into a super El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027. This could bring hotter and drier weather than usual to Thailand. Historically, during super El Niño periods, Thailand's average annual rainfall dropped to about 1,446 millimeters, roughly 9.4% below the 40-year long-term average of 1,596 millimeters, while maximum temperatures reached around 41 degrees Celsius, about 2 degrees above normal. In the meat sector, particularly pork, prices are likely to benefit from upward pressure as heat stress slows pig growth and raises disease risk, reducing market supply. Data from 2004 to 2023 shows pork prices rose an average of about 17% during El Niño periods, compared to an average increase of around 12% for chicken. Meanwhile, the beverage and convenience store sectors are expected to be supported by higher beverage consumption during hot weather. Brokers therefore recommend meat stocks such as BTG, TFG, and CPF, and beverage stocks including ICHI, CBG, and OSP, as well as convenience store operator CPALL.

The Thai stock market is entering the period for second-quarter 2026 earnings announcements and interim dividend payments. Bualuang Securities' Wealth Research team notes that the SET Dividend Yield for 2026 is expected to be around 3.5 percent, compared with the 10-year Thai government bond yield of approximately 2.0 percent, resulting in a yield spread of about 1.5 percent, which is above the long-term average. This reflects that stocks still offer an additional return relative to bonds. The highlight this round is the combination of yield and earnings growth, with many companies likely to see upward earnings revisions or no significant downward adjustments over the past three months. The energy sector remains a key driver due to higher energy prices, while the communications sector is beginning to show more qualitative growth, with ADVANC and TRUE supported by recovering ARPU and subscriber numbers. The food and beverage sector is seeing positive signals from easing costs, with OSP standing out in margin management, TU benefiting from lower raw material costs, and CPF supported by recovering agricultural commodity price trends. The hospital sector is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, driven by returning Thai patient revenue and improving foreign patient demand. The strategy continues to focus on selecting individual stocks with strong cash flows, the ability to maintain margins, and consistent dividend payments.

Academics point out that the baht has weakened to a 14-month low of 33.60 per US dollar, benefiting the Thai economy which relies heavily on the external sector accounting for 72% of GDP. The depreciation makes export goods cheaper and stimulates tourism for the remainder of 2026. GFPT reveals that the second half of the year enters the high season, supporting export revenue which accounts for 25% of total revenue. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities recommends food and electronics stocks that benefit from the weaker baht, highlighting Thai Union, Charoen Pokphand Foods, GFPT, Delta Electronics, Hana Microelectronics, and KCE Electronics as standout stocks worth accumulating.

Asia Plus Securities expects the combined normalised profit of four agriculture and food companies — CPF, GFPT, TU, and ITC — to reach 6.45 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, flat from the previous quarter but down 53 percent from a year earlier. The outlook for the second half of 2026 is seen improving from the first half, driven by the onset of the export season in the third quarter, which is the high season for the sector, along with a likely weaker baht. The livestock segment, represented by CPF and GFPT, is expected to recover on better product prices, while the seafood and pet food segment, represented by TU and ITC, should see cost pressures gradually ease. The research team picks ITC as a top pick, citing second-half profit growth both half-on-half and year-on-year, and GFPT for its strongest second-quarter profit momentum among peers.