Regional Container Lines Public Company Limited

The resurgence of tensions in the Middle East has led to an increase in the average Dubai crude oil price last week by 4.42 US dollars per barrel, or 5%, to 93.03 US dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, the Singapore refining margin fell by 2.84 US dollars per barrel to 17.31 US dollars per barrel, due to increased regional supply and high US oil inventories. Analysts believe that the strong earnings of refinery groups have already been reflected in their stock prices and recommend switching investments to the petrochemical sector, especially IVL and PTTGC, whose share prices have risen more slowly. Most petrochemical spreads have improved, such as the Ethylene-Naphtha Spread, which increased by 93 US dollars to 242 US dollars per ton. Additionally, the blockade of shipping routes in the Red Sea could support short-term freight rates, with the World Container Index rising 4% to 4,526 points, a positive factor for RCL shares. Meanwhile, the BDI index fell 5% to 2,820 points, but Supramax vessels, which are related to PSL and TTA, increased 2% to 1,634 points. The NEX coal price index also rose 3% to 131.81 US dollars per ton, driven by strong demand in Asia-Pacific.

Asia Plus Securities' research team said profits of 283 Thai listed companies out of 682 that have reported second-quarter results came in 11.9% above market expectations. Combined with estimates for the remaining companies, which cover 93% of market capitalisation, it assesses that total second-quarter profit could reach 355 billion baht, up 6.7% from the previous quarter and 8.2% from a year earlier. This raises expectations that second-quarter profit for fiscal 2026 may set a record high, continuing from the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The main growth drivers are petrochemicals, packaging and energy. Including commodity-linked groups such as energy, petrochemicals, food and agriculture, they would account for 44% of total market profit, compared with a normal level of about 30%. The research team views that first-half profit already represents 60% of the full-year target, reducing pressure in the third and fourth quarters and opening upside to the market-wide earnings per share estimate of 95 baht per share, which gives room for the index target to be revised upward. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows into the Thai stock market slowed clearly in August, with cumulative net selling of nearly 10 billion baht, while retail investors were net buyers supporting the index. The research team recommends three stock groups: companies with better-than-expected results such as IRPC, TCAP, KCE and CENTEL; companies benefiting from commodities and geopolitics such as TASCO, RCL, BCP and PTTGC; and companies expected to recover in the second half such as THAI, ERW and BCH. Its top three picks are PTT, BDMS and CENTEL.

Regional Container Lines, or RCL, reported a second-quarter net profit of 1.98 billion baht, down 1.20 percent from a year earlier but up 18.5 percent from the previous quarter, supported by a 36 percent rise in average freight rates to 552 dollars per container, even as shipping volumes fell 13.8 percent due to conflict in the Middle East. For the first six months, net profit stood at 3.65 billion baht, down 10.12 percent from a year earlier, weighed by higher fuel costs and a 4.2 percent appreciation of the baht. The board approved an interim dividend of 0.50 baht per share, with the XD date set for 21 August 2026 and payment on 4 September 2026.

Bulk carrier freight rates in the second quarter of 2026 continued to recover from the first quarter of 2026, averaging 34,100 US dollars per day for Capesize vessels, 18,300 dollars per day for Panamax, 15,800 dollars per day for Supramax, and 13,900 dollars per day for Handysize, according to Nattapon Khamthakhruea, Director of Securities Analysis at Yuanta Securities Thailand. For the third quarter of 2026, which is the high season for the shipping business, freight rates are expected to remain at high levels or edge slightly higher, with Capesize likely to move in a range of 30,000 to 38,000 US dollars per day, Panamax at 17,000 to 21,000 dollars per day, Supramax at 15,000 to 18,000 dollars per day, and Handysize at 13,000 to 15,000 dollars per day. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Securities stated in its analysis that PSL is expected to report a normal profit of 291 million baht for the second quarter of 2026, swinging from a loss compared to the same period last year, supported by strong demand for iron ore and grain shipping. RCL is expected to report a normal profit of 2.1 billion baht, up 5 percent from the same period last year and up 33 percent from the previous quarter. Kasikorn Securities has upgraded its recommendations for both PSL and RCL to Buy, raising the target price for PSL to 9 baht from 6.8 baht, and for RCL to 40 baht from 33.0 baht.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, says global investment conditions are highly volatile due to geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, and interest rates that may stay high longer than expected. It suggests coping strategies by increasing liquidity, reducing portfolio risk, and investing in stocks that benefit. It recommends three standout stocks: PTTEP, BCP, and RCL. ASPS estimates that Brent crude oil prices in July 2026 rose about 38 percent since the start of the month and surpassed 100 dollars per barrel, making the oil price trend in the third quarter of 2026 significantly higher than the second quarter. Meanwhile, the trade war has shifted to the US Section 301, which may add pressure on supply chains and exports. Prolonged high interest rates could pressure stock valuations, especially for companies with high debt. ASPS recommends four main strategies: increase cash holdings, use gold as a hedge, select energy, refinery, and shipping stocks, and shift into defensive stocks like CPALL and BDMS. It views PTTEP as benefiting from sustained high oil prices with outstanding dividends, BCP supported by recovering refining margins and reduced oil stock loss risk, and RCL gaining from rising freight rates.

Analysts have selected seven stocks expected to post second-quarter earnings growth. PSL may swing from a loss to strong profit as dry bulk freight rates surge. RCL benefits from container shortages due to port congestion and can levy additional special fees. AMATA is scheduled for large land transfers in both Thailand and Vietnam, supported by electric vehicle and data center production bases. ERW maintains high average revenue per room and continues expanding its Hop Inn branches. MRDIY's profit keeps racing ahead from new branch openings with quick payback and robust same-store sales. CPN gains from increased mall foot traffic, boosting rental income and sales share. COM7 is generating new revenue from retail media, using over 1,400 stores nationwide as advertising billboards with high gross margins.