Srisawad Power 1979 PCL

ASL Securities (ASL) stated that shares of Srisawad Corporation (SAWAD) are entering a new growth cycle, with loans expected to grow 10% per year in 2026-2027, led by title loans. Meanwhile, funding costs are declining, and asset holding expenses will be eliminated from the third quarter of 2026, which will support a rebound in interest margin and net interest income. Additionally, non-performing loans are expected to decrease from 3.9% in 2025 to 3.7% and 3.6% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Pressure from repossessed vehicles is easing, and new businesses such as SCAP-Locked Phone and insurance brokerage will help boost revenue and profits. Profits for 2026-2027 are estimated at 5.36 billion baht and 6.01 billion baht, growing 6.7% and 12.2% year-on-year. ASL recommends a "Buy" rating with a target price of 29.50 baht, offering dividend yields of 3.4% and 3.8%.

Farm income in July accelerated 10% from a year earlier, marking a fifth straight month of growth and the strongest pace in 20 months, helped by a 12% rise in agricultural prices while output fell 2%. An analysis from Yuanta Securities said products with improving prices included cassava, palm oil and chicken eggs, while hog prices declined. Durian and hog output increased, while cassava, rambutan, mangosteen, oil palm and chicken egg production decreased. Farm income is expected to keep accelerating from the third quarter through the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued growth in key product revenue, output affected by drought and lower global supply, a low base last year, and a recovery cycle that typically lasts about 12 months. This cycle has already risen for five months, so there is a chance of at least another five to six months of gains. The agricultural economy accounts for 10% of GDP and involves about 30% of the population, so it is expected to significantly support consumption in the second half of 2026. It should also improve asset quality for financial institutions and ease household debt pressure, which is positive for finance stocks, while stimulating investment in machinery, tractors, water pumps, fertilizer, seeds, solar energy and farmland improvement. Recommended stocks include GFPT, TFG, STA, GLOBAL, DOHOME, MTC, SAWAD, FSMART, DRT, DCC and SAT. The analysis also suggests monitoring APURE, or Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited, whose second-quarter 2025 results recovered with net profit of 56 million baht, accelerating from 12 million baht in the first quarter of 2026 and swinging from a loss of 34 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. This was driven by export sales to Europe surging eight to ten times after Europe restricted Chinese goods seen as dumped, sending large order volumes to APURE. The company has already planned for drought-related costs, and customers bear all shipping costs, so third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to accelerate both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with the best chance in ten quarters. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter and grow strongly year-on-year. If this materializes, full-year profit would be around 250 million baht, up from only 27 million baht last year, implying earnings per share of 0.26 baht. The current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 8 times, with an expected dividend yield of 8 to 9 percent per year. Technically, the price has just moved back above the 200-day moving average with positive signals, with resistance at 2.60 baht and 2.80 baht.

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited, or SAWAD, said at its Opportunity Day event that business momentum in the second half of 2026 should continue to improve as the company enters the high season, when loan demand expands strongly. It has set a full-year loan portfolio growth target of 10-15%, focusing on borrowers with collateral and strong repayment capacity through strict risk management. For the second quarter of 2026, net profit was 1.548 billion baht, up 6.25% from the previous quarter, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of growth. First-half 2026 profit was 3.005 billion baht, up 22.40% from the same period a year earlier. At the end of the second quarter of 2026, total outstanding loans were 95.805 billion baht and the debt-to-equity ratio stood at 1.52 times, reflecting a strong capital base and low financial risk.

SAWAD is moving forward with selective loan expansion, prioritizing quality over rapid portfolio growth. Title loan lending remains the core product, accounting for 73.17% of the portfolio, with a target for continued portfolio growth of around 10-15% year on year. Currently, NPL stands at 3.87%, and the company sees no significant signs of rising bad debt. It is accelerating efforts to manage and restructure debt to match each customer's repayment capacity. The company plans to keep expanding its insurance business, with insurance sales revenue in the second quarter of 2026 at 382 million baht, up 7.30% quarter on quarter, and the six-month period at 738 million baht, up 13.19% year on year, while adding digital and telesales channels. Bualuang Securities expects third-quarter 2026 net profit to be 1.5 billion baht, up 10% year on year and 4% quarter on quarter, and has raised its full-year 2026 net profit forecast to 5.7 billion baht, up 13% year on year, a new record high. It maintains a buy recommendation with a fair value of 37 baht per share.

Listed leasing companies reported robust first-half 2026 results. MTC posted a net profit of 3.728 billion baht, up 15.84 percent from the same period last year, while SAWAD recorded a net profit of 3.005 billion baht, up 22.40 percent. SAK reported a net profit of 454 million baht, up 3.4 percent, and TK posted a net profit of 63 million baht. MTC is targeting 10 percent loan portfolio growth in the second half, SAWAD expects to enter its high season, and SAK is confident its full-year loan portfolio will reach 15.5 to 16 billion baht, growing 8 to 10 percent.

Major vehicle title loan and microfinance groups SAWAD, TIDLOR, and MTC are all expanding their businesses to meet loan demand expected to rise during the high season in the second half of 2026. SAWAD said it will focus on growing its title loan portfolio under a selective growth strategy, alongside expanding its insurance brokerage business and accelerating digital platforms such as e-KYC, as well as building on mobile phone hire-purchase lending through its Locked Phone system to strengthen capabilities. TIDLOR reported second-quarter 2026 total revenue of 6.143 billion baht, up 6.7 percent, and net profit of 1.5332 billion baht, up 18.3 percent from the same period last year. That brought first-half net profit to 3.147 billion baht, up 26.2 percent, driven mainly by loan portfolio growth of 2.4 percent and strong expansion in the insurance brokerage business, while asset quality management helped lower the non-performing loan ratio to 1.54 percent. MTC said it is confident its loan portfolio will grow by about 10 percent and that it will keep NPLs within target. Second-quarter 2026 results showed a total loan portfolio of 188.699 billion baht, total revenue of 8.127 billion baht, up 7.70 percent, and net profit of 1.905 billion baht, up 15.66 percent from the same period last year. First-half net profit totaled 3.728 billion baht, up 15.84 percent.

Finansia Syrus Securities maintained a buy rating on SAWAD with a 2026 target price of 35 baht, projecting 2026-27 net profit to grow at a compound average of 10.5% per year, supported by stronger lending, lower credit risk costs, and better cost efficiency from reduced SCAP amortization. FSS also has a positive view on third-quarter 2026 earnings as loan demand enters a seasonal upswing before peaking in the fourth quarter, and if the company maintains cost discipline similar to the second quarter of 2026, cost savings could be a positive factor for earnings estimates. Analysts at Krungsri Securities expect 2026 net profit of 5.538 billion baht, up 10% from the previous year, maintaining a buy rating and raising the 2027 target price to 33 baht per share. Phillip Securities Thailand trimmed its 2026 earnings estimate slightly to 5.6 billion baht due to higher-than-expected provisioning, but still sees 11.9% growth from the prior year, keeping a buy rating with a 2027 base-case price of 30 baht and assessing that the share price still offers a relatively wide margin.

Phillip Securities maintains a buy recommendation on MTC and SAWAD after second-quarter 2026 profits grew both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with 2027 target prices of 42 baht for MTC and 30 baht for SAWAD. MTC's profit continued to set new highs, driven by higher interest income as lending accelerated across all categories, even though non-performing loans also rose. SAWAD's profit reached a new high broadly in line with expectations, helped by lower funding costs, provisions, and expenses, with lending turning positive across all categories and non-performing loans held steady from the previous quarter. Phillip raised its 2026 profit forecast for MTC and trimmed it slightly for SAWAD, while shifting to 2027 base-case prices and still expecting continued solid results, though asset quality needs to be monitored.

Land and Houses Securities assesses that the retail sector faces short-term challenges, with CPAXT's second-quarter profit falling 18 percent year-on-year despite higher total revenue, as selling and administrative expenses rose from accelerated branch expansion and Lotus's same-store sales declined nearly 4 percent due to indirect impacts from the Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme. Analysts expect the retail and wholesale sector to recover in the fourth quarter, which is the high season, and may get support from short-term stimulus measures such as increasing the state welfare card limit, which will benefit TNP. BJC is expected to see profit recovery in the second half, supported by its packaging business. Meanwhile, the tourism sector is viewed as the most attractive for long-term investment, as the government prepares concrete tourism stimulus measures in the fourth quarter, with recommended stocks including ERW, CENTEL, and MINT. The finance sector is a laggard with earnings poised to surge, with SAWAD expected to post quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter and stand out in the second half, while MTC is worth accumulating as its price has not risen much.

Analysts from leading securities firms forecast second-quarter 2025 earnings for three financial sector companies: SAWAD, TIDLOR, and MTC. Overall, net profit is expected to grow from the same period last year, supported by loan portfolio expansion and higher interest income. For SAWAD, FSS analysts project net profit of 1.43 billion baht, up 12.6 percent year-on-year, and recommend buying with a target price of 35 baht. Meanwhile, TNITY estimates net profit at 1.401 billion baht, up 10.34 percent year-on-year, and maintains a buy rating with a target price of 35 baht. For TIDLOR, YUANTA forecasts net profit of 1.455 billion baht, growing 12.2 percent year-on-year but declining 9.8 percent from the previous quarter, while keeping a buy recommendation with a new target price of 23 baht. KGI projects net profit of 1.4 billion baht, up 8 percent year-on-year, and upgrades its recommendation from sell to hold, raising the target price to 19.20 baht. For MTC, TNITY expects net profit of 1.883 billion baht, up 14.4 percent year-on-year, and recommends buying with a target price of 43 baht. FSS estimates net profit at 1.89 billion baht, up 14.7 percent year-on-year, and maintains a buy rating but lowers the target price to 40 baht.

Bualuang Securities assesses that SAWAD is an attractive stock, with this year's earnings trend set to hit a new record, asset quality remaining stable, and valuation still compelling at a PER of just 7.4 times. The research team expects earnings per share this year to grow 13 percent compared to the previous year, and maintains a buy recommendation with a new 2027 target price of 37 baht. The research team notes that SAWAD has tightened lending for over two years, particularly reducing motorcycle hire-purchase loans by as much as 28 percent over the past two years, leading to better asset quality for new customers and a continuous decline in losses from repossessed vehicles. Adjusted credit cost, which includes losses from repossessed vehicles, is expected to fall from 4.5 percent in the third quarter of 2023 to 2.6 percent in 2028. In addition, asset quality in the retail loan segments of KKP and TISCO remains sound, and NCAP, a motorcycle hire-purchase provider similar to SAWAD's subsidiary, has also reported improved asset quality, indicating that SAWAD's asset quality direction is likely to remain positive. The research team forecasts SAWAD's second-quarter 2026 profit at 1.4 billion baht, reaching a quarterly high, growing 10 percent year-on-year and 4 percent quarter-on-quarter, driven by loan growth, NIM expansion, and a lower cost-to-income ratio, while asset quality is expected to be stable compared to the previous quarter at the end of the second quarter of 2026. Third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to continue setting new records at 1.4 billion baht, up 8 percent year-on-year and 3 percent quarter-on-quarter, supported by loan and NIM expansion. The research team has raised its 2026 to 2027 net profit estimates by 6 percent, reflecting better-than-expected trends in repossessed vehicle losses and NIM, with 2026 profit forecast to grow 13 percent year-on-year to a new high, and views the current valuation as attractive, with the market having an opportunity to re-rate the stock.

Bualuang Securities assesses that SAWAD is likely to see its profit this year reach a new record high, with asset quality remaining stable and no worrying signals. The firm recommends a buy with a new 2027 target price of 37 baht, based on three reasons. First, it has been tightening loan approvals for over two years, especially reducing motorcycle hire-purchase loans by as much as 28 percent over the past two years, leading to better asset quality for new customers. Adjusted credit cost, which includes losses from repossessed vehicles, is expected to decline from 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 2.6 percent in 2028. Asset quality in the retail loan segments of KKP and TISCO remains sound, and NCAP, a motorcycle hire-purchase provider similar to SAWAD's subsidiary, has also reported improving asset quality, reflecting a positive trend for SAWAD. Second-quarter 2026 profit is forecast at 1.4 billion baht, hitting a quarterly high, growing 10 percent year-on-year and 4 percent quarter-on-quarter, driven by loan growth, expanding net interest margin, and a lower cost-to-income ratio. Asset quality is expected to be stable from the previous quarter as of the end of the second quarter of 2026. Third-quarter 2026 profit is projected to continue making new highs at 1.4 billion baht, up 8 percent year-on-year and 3 percent quarter-on-quarter, supported by loan and net interest margin expansion. Bualuang Securities has raised its 2026 to 2027 net profit estimates by 6 percent due to better-than-expected trends in repossessed vehicle losses and net interest margin. Full-year 2026 profit is expected to grow 13 percent year-on-year to a new record. Meanwhile, the current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 7.4 times, making the valuation attractive and offering potential for a market re-rating.

Analysts at Trinity Securities, or TNITY, estimate that Srisawad Corporation, or SAWAD, will post a net profit of 1.401 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 10.34 percent from the same period last year and up 4.42 percent from the previous quarter. The growth is driven by continued expansion in interest income, an improved loan yield, and gradually declining credit risk costs. Net interest income is projected at around 9.4 billion baht, rising 3.39 percent year-on-year and 1.25 percent quarter-on-quarter. The loan yield is expected to edge up to 15.95 percent from 15.70 percent in the first quarter. On asset quality, the non-performing loan ratio is forecast at 4.05 percent, while credit risk costs ease to 2.25 percent from 2.27 percent in the prior quarter. For the full year 2026, the research team expects the loan portfolio to grow 10 to 15 percent, with the company targeting loan expansion to 56 billion baht, while keeping non-performing loans within a 3 to 4 percent range and maintaining credit risk costs at 1.8 to 2.0 percent. The research unit maintains a buy recommendation with a 2026 target price of 35.00 baht.

Leasing stocks rose across the board in morning trading today. SAWAD gained 3.06% to 25.25 baht, MTC added 3.76% to 34.50 baht, TIDLOR increased 1.05% to 19.30 baht, THANI rose 1.87% to 2.18 baht, MICRO jumped 11.11% to 1.40 baht, AEONTS edged up 1.44% to 105.50 baht, and SGC advanced 1.16% to 1.75 baht. Analysis from KGI Securities Thailand indicated that the positive factor came from government bond yields trending lower in line with the pullback in crude oil prices, coupled with the recovery of the Thai economy as the Ministry of Finance raised its GDP target, which will benefit asset quality in the sector. KGI set a base-case target price for SAWAD at 26.00 baht, viewing the stock as consolidating and testing its 200-day moving average, with support at 24.10 baht and resistance at 25.00 to 26.00 baht. If it breaks through this range, the next resistance is at 28.00 baht, with a stop loss set at 23.80 baht. The firm noted that the stock's valuation is not expensive, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8 times, which is below the minus one standard deviation level of around 9 times.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.