Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited

CGS International (Thailand) or CGSI stated in its analysis that it maintains a positive view on the Thai refining group. Although China is increasing exports of refined oil products, it is expected to be a gradual easing, as China prioritizes domestic energy security. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict may delay the start of operations at the Huajin Aramco refinery to October-November 2026. Excluding the recovery in refining volumes during the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026, global refining volumes are likely to decline by more than 2 million barrels per day in 2026. Additionally, Iranian and Houthi attacks have reduced refinery utilization rates in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait since March 2026, and Russian refineries have been attacked by drones, turning Russia into a net importer of diesel. Although surging diesel prices may cause demand destruction of about 330,000 barrels per day, the supply reduction of more than 1 million barrels per day supports Asian crack spreads. Tight heavy crude supply pressures heavy distillate production, and Russia's LSFO export ban helps keep crack spreads elevated. Thai refinery stocks have risen significantly and may face profit-taking, but CGSI views any pullback as an accumulation opportunity, especially for TOP, SPRC, and BCP, as strong GRM in the first half of 2026 will generate cash flow and support attractive dividends. However, it maintains a Neutral rating on the Thai oil and gas group due to concerns over downstream petrochemicals.

Mr. Chaiwat Kovavisarach, Chief Executive Officer of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited and President of the Bangchak Group, stated at the event "New Energy for Thailand: Energy Transition, Betting on Thailand's Future" that increasing the share of drop-in biofuels to 20% has the potential to create economic value equivalent to approximately 2% of GDP, driven by an increase in domestic spending of about 153 billion baht and a reduction in oil imports of about 63 billion baht. This would also help create jobs, distribute income, and enhance energy security. The transport sector accounts for 41% of Thailand's final energy consumption and uses about 76% of primary oil consumption. Bangchak Group has continuously developed its biofuel business, now producing HEFA-SPK sustainable aviation fuel with a capacity of 1 million liters per day, HVO or green diesel for road transport, and B24 for the maritime sector.

Shares of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (BCP) rose 7.54% to 53.50 baht after the company announced an interim dividend for the first half of 2026 at 3 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 6.0%. The ex-dividend date is September 7, and the payment date is September 17. Land and Houses Securities maintains a "Buy" recommendation and expects second-half earnings to continue growing strongly year-on-year, albeit lower than the first half which had a high base. This is supported by new businesses such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and oil retail in Hong Kong, which will contribute full-quarter results for the first time in Q3/2026. Meanwhile, EBITDA from the trading business is expected to grow 2.5 times, and OKEA's oil and gas selling prices are expected to rise 30-40%. There is also potential for special gains from the sale of the Mistral petroleum field and BCPG's gas-fired power plant in the United States.

At least eight Thai listed companies announced interim dividend payments following board meetings on August 25, 2026, with most setting the XD date between September 7-9. Leading the way, BCP pays 3.00 baht per share, followed by TISCO at 2.00 baht, RATCH at 0.70 baht, TIPH at 0.50 baht, OR at 0.30 baht, HMPRO at 0.16 baht, TTB at 0.081 baht (up 23% from last year), and CIMBT at 0.0385 baht. RATCH's total payout is approximately 1,522.50 million baht, while OR's total is 3,600 million baht.

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, has unveiled its 5-year strategic plan aiming to become a global energy business group, targeting a doubling of EBITDA by 2030 and generating 1 trillion baht in revenue by 2031. Mr. Chaiwat Kovavisarach, Chief Executive Officer of Bangchak Group and President, stated that the plan prioritizes energy security and resilience to volatility, leveraging strengths from its fully integrated business from upstream to downstream. In the first half of 2026, the company achieved record results with EBITDA of 43.763 billion baht and net profit of 18.383 billion baht. The refining, marketing, and bio-energy business group aims to enhance efficiency across the value chain, with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) as a key business generating approximately 1 billion baht in EBITDA in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the domestic marketing business targets a 33% retail market share by 2031, and BHK will serve as a base for regional expansion, aiming to increase its marine fuel market share from 13% to 25%. The natural resources business group targets increasing production to approximately 100,000 barrels per day by 2031, and the power business group aims to expand capacity by at least 500 megawatts, with an EBITDA target in 2031 of 1.5 times the 2025 base. Financially, the company will maintain capital allocation discipline while generating returns through a 3-year share buyback program and continuous dividend payments. BCP's total shareholder return from the beginning of the year to August 14, 2026, stood at 94%, compared to SET ENERGY's 38.1% and SET50's 32.6%.

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, announced an interim dividend payment from retained earnings at 3 baht per share, with the ex-dividend date (XD) set for September 7, 2026, and the dividend payment on September 17, 2026. The dividend yield for this payment is 6.03%, based on the closing price of 49.75 baht per share on August 25, 2026, which is higher than market expectations.

Bangchak Group announced a 5-year strategic plan targeting EBITDA to double by 2030 and revenue of 1 trillion baht by 2031, aiming to become a global energy business group with an investment-grade international credit rating. Chaiwat Kovavisarach, Chief Executive Officer of Bangchak Group and President, said first-half 2026 results were the highest on record, with EBITDA of 43.763 billion baht and net profit of 18.383 billion baht, supported by all business groups including SAF, trading, upstream, and power and infrastructure. The plan covers five business groups: refinery and marketing and bioenergy, which targets a 33% retail market share by 2031 and a tripling of EBITDA from non-oil and Inthanin businesses; oil trading targets EBITDA of about 5 billion baht by 2031; natural resources targets production of about 100,000 barrels per day by 2031; power and infrastructure targets additional capacity of at least 500 megawatts and 2031 EBITDA of 1.5 times the 2025 base; and new business and holdings will incubate future businesses. Financially, the company will maintain capital allocation discipline while delivering shareholder returns through a 3-year share buyback program and continuous dividend payments. Total shareholder return for BCP from the start of the year to 14 August 2026 was 94%, compared with 38.1% for SET ENERGY and 32.6% for SET50.

Yuanta Securities stated that Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, has set a high-growth target, expecting EBITDA to reach 100 billion baht in 2030 and revenue to reach 1 trillion baht in 2031. The company assesses that the next one to two years will remain a period of tight refining supply because production capacity in Russia and the Middle East has been damaged, and Teapot refineries in China have reduced output. Looking ahead to 2027, the market will remain tight because building new refineries takes a long time. The trading business targets EBITDA of 5 billion baht in 2031, up from 1 billion baht in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, the upstream business OKEA plans to increase production volume to 100 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2031, from the current 29 to 32 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, and will begin drilling its first exploration well in the G2/65 project with Chevron in 2026. The company has committed capital expenditure of 9.2 billion baht per year, with 66 percent allocated to the refining, marketing, and bio-products businesses, and 24 percent to the upstream business. In the short term during the second half of 2026, the refining rate is expected to be around 260 thousand barrels per day, compared with 276 thousand barrels per day in the first half of 2026, supported by a tight refined oil market, expansion of the trading business, higher natural gas prices in Europe, and an increase in capacity revenue from power plants in the United States, as well as the start of recognizing Bangchak Hong Kong's operating results after the deal closed at the end of June. On a full-year basis, this would contribute revenue of 40 billion baht and EBITDA of 2 billion baht, along with recognizing a full quarter of operating results from the SAF project. Most recently, in the second quarter of 2026, the production rate was high at 6.8 thousand barrels per day and generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht per quarter. Yuanta Securities maintains its 2026 net profit estimate at 26 billion baht and has switched to a target price at the end of 2027 of 58.00 baht, based on a ten-year historical average price-to-book value of 0.9 times. The current price offers upside gain of 13.2 percent and a high 2026 dividend yield of 8.8 percent. The recommendation remains buy.

KGI Securities Thailand maintains its 2026 dividend per share forecast for BCP at 5.30 baht, up 405% from 1.05 baht in 2025, expecting record profit of 31.4 billion baht and applying a conservative payout ratio of 25%. Management has confirmed a policy of paying at least 30% of net profit after required reserves, depending on economic conditions, cash flow, and investment plans. BCP also has a share buyback program worth up to 3.8 billion baht during 2025-2028, with the first phase completed on 15 June 2026, repurchasing 9.67 million shares, or 0.66% of outstanding shares, worth 336 million baht from a maximum approved amount of 1.1 billion baht. Third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to decline from the previous quarter because refining margins fell due to higher crude premium costs, insurance, and freight, even though gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel spreads remained strong at 30.0, 62.3, and 67.8 US dollars per barrel, respectively. Refining utilization is expected to fall 2%-6% to 260-270 thousand barrels per day because middle distillate storage tanks are nearly full after the Energy Ministry banned diesel exports from 6 March. However, profit from the SAF project, in which BCP holds 80% and BBGI holds 20%, is expected to nearly double because this is the first quarter of full recognition after commercial operations began on 18 May. Bloomberg consensus recommendations are 19 buys, 2 holds, and 0 sells, with an average target price of 53.50 baht as of 25 August. The share price is expected to be supported by strong refining margins, a dividend yield of 10.3%, and SAF profit, making BCP the top pick in the refining sector, followed by SPRC and TOP.

Morgan Stanley has raised its target prices on six Thai energy and refinery stocks: PTT to 44.90 baht from 39.40 baht, TOP to 87 baht from 70 baht, PTTGC to 59 baht from 43 baht, OR to 14.60 baht from 14.30 baht, BCP to 65.70 baht from 51 baht, and SPRC to 19.70 baht from 12.90 baht. The moves reflect a positive view on the outlook for Thailand's energy and refinery sector, especially for SPRC, PTTGC, TOP and BCP, which received significant target-price increases. Sorachai Pittayapruek, director of analysis at Krungsri Securities, assesses that the petrochemical industry is entering the early stage of a new recovery cycle after facing oversupply pressure since 2023. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is acting as a catalyst for faster market rebalancing, because some plants that already had plans to reduce or halt production can use the situation as a reason to stop operations and cut product deliveries, removing a large amount of supply from the market during the crisis. However, once the Hormuz closure situation eases, product spreads may correct in the short term in the third quarter of 2026, but they are unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2025, because not all of the old plant capacity that has been gradually shut down can come back to the market. Sorachai estimates that the petrochemical industry has a chance to reach balance sooner than previously expected. He had earlier estimated that the market could reach equilibrium in 2029, assuming plastic resin demand grows by an average of 1 to 2 percent per year and no severe economic recession hits. Once excess supply declines to the point of balance, producers' pricing power will increase, opening the opportunity for product spreads to sustainably stand above 500 US dollars per tonne. His recommended standout stocks are PTTGC and SCC in the petrochemical group, with BCP as the top pick in the refinery group, along with a buy recommendation on IVL and hold recommendations on SPRC and TOP.

Mr. Chaiwat Kovavisarach, Chief Executive Officer and President of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, purchased 100,000 ordinary shares of the company on 19 August 2026 at an average price of 47.75 baht, according to Form 59 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. After the purchase, Mr. Chaiwat holds a total of 3,100,000 BCP shares. The transaction was executed on the stock exchange through auto matching via Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Public Company Limited.

PTT Oil and Retail Business, or OR, and Bangchak Corporation, or BCP, have raised retail prices for benzene, gasohol, and diesel by 0.85 baht per litre, effective from 5 a.m. on 19 August onwards. As a result, retail fuel prices in Bangkok, excluding local maintenance tax, are now benzene 95 at 46.68 baht per litre, gasohol 95 at 37.69 baht per litre, gasohol 91 at 37.32 baht per litre, E20 at 32.69 baht per litre, E85 at 28.63 baht per litre, diesel at 38.39 baht per litre, diesel B20 at 33.39 baht per litre, and premium diesel at 50.05 baht per litre.

Bualuang Securities reported second-quarter 2026 results for eight energy companies under its coverage, with combined net profit of 109 billion baht, up 195% year-on-year and 35% quarter-on-quarter. Core profit totaled 127 billion baht, up 237% year-on-year and 49% quarter-on-quarter. The refinery group was the main driver, boosted by higher revenue and margins from selling prices and elevated GRM and GIM amid the war situation. BCP, PTT and SPRC beat expectations, while IRPC, PTTEP and TOP were in line. BANPU and OR came in below expectations. The group's overall financial position remains strong, with SPRC in a net cash position, OR near net cash, and PTTEP holding net debt to equity of only 0.1 times, followed by TOP and PTT. BCP stood at 0.7 times, while BANPU and IRPC were higher than the group at 1.0 times and 0.9 times respectively. On cash flow, PTT and PTTEP have posted positive operating cash flow and free cash flow for six consecutive quarters, while BANPU is the only company that has not yet generated positive free cash flow during that period. For the third-quarter 2026 outlook, most management teams are cautious but still positive. Oil prices and GRM are expected to decline from the previous quarter as supply increases after Middle East tensions ease, but they should remain high compared with a year earlier. OR is more positive, expecting oil sales volume and marketing margin to improve from the previous quarter. The research team views BCP, PTT, PTTEP and SPRC as having potential to pay high dividend yields of around 6 to 10 percent in 2026, and around 5 to 7 percent over the medium term. PTT remains the top pick on strong earnings momentum and an attractive dividend yield.

Asia Plus Securities' research team said profits of 283 Thai listed companies out of 682 that have reported second-quarter results came in 11.9% above market expectations. Combined with estimates for the remaining companies, which cover 93% of market capitalisation, it assesses that total second-quarter profit could reach 355 billion baht, up 6.7% from the previous quarter and 8.2% from a year earlier. This raises expectations that second-quarter profit for fiscal 2026 may set a record high, continuing from the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The main growth drivers are petrochemicals, packaging and energy. Including commodity-linked groups such as energy, petrochemicals, food and agriculture, they would account for 44% of total market profit, compared with a normal level of about 30%. The research team views that first-half profit already represents 60% of the full-year target, reducing pressure in the third and fourth quarters and opening upside to the market-wide earnings per share estimate of 95 baht per share, which gives room for the index target to be revised upward. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows into the Thai stock market slowed clearly in August, with cumulative net selling of nearly 10 billion baht, while retail investors were net buyers supporting the index. The research team recommends three stock groups: companies with better-than-expected results such as IRPC, TCAP, KCE and CENTEL; companies benefiting from commodities and geopolitics such as TASCO, RCL, BCP and PTTGC; and companies expected to recover in the second half such as THAI, ERW and BCH. Its top three picks are PTT, BDMS and CENTEL.

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, reported a second-quarter 2026 net profit of approximately 12,200 to 12,239 million baht, surging over 99 percent from the previous quarter and swinging from a loss in the same period last year. The performance was driven by strong refining margins of 18.4 to 23.0 US dollars per barrel, supported by tight oil product supply, particularly in diesel and jet fuel, as well as tensions in the Middle East. The marketing business saw net marketing margin improve to 1.23 to 1.26 baht per litre, and the company began recognising commercial revenue from its sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, business in May, contributing EBITDA of around 1.0 billion baht. Meanwhile, hedging losses narrowed to approximately 538 to 879 million baht. As a result, several analysts have raised their full-year 2026 net profit forecasts to a range of 26,300 to 32,100 million baht, with the highest target price of 62 baht from Krungsri Securities, mostly accompanied by buy recommendations.

Bangchak Corporation, or BCP, reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 12 billion baht, up 99 percent from the previous quarter and a turnaround from a loss a year earlier, marking a new quarterly record. The strong performance was driven by its Sustainable Aviation Fuel project, or SAF, which began commercial operations in May. Core profit stood at 12 billion baht, rising 32 percent from the prior quarter and surging 1,493 percent year-on-year. The refinery and marketing business saw profit increase 40 percent from the previous quarter, despite a slight dip in refining margins, thanks to high SAF price spreads and higher sales volumes. The natural resources business posted a 64 percent profit increase, supported by higher average selling prices in line with global energy prices. Analysts have raised their full-year 2026 net profit forecast to 26 billion baht and the 2027 estimate to 12 billion baht, while lifting the target price to 51.00 baht and maintaining a buy recommendation. The expected dividend yield for 2026 is as high as 9.9 percent.

Finansia Syrus Securities, Kingsford Securities, and Dao Securities assessed the outlook for the Thai stock market today. Finansia Syrus expects the SET Index to move sideways up within a range of 1,605 to 1,625 points, supported by positive sentiment from lower-than-expected US employment data. Kingsford sees support at 1,600 points and resistance at 1,620 to 1,630 points, while Dao forecasts this week's range at 1,590 to 1,655 points. For stock picks, Dao noted that BCP posted a net profit of 12.2 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, swinging from a loss year-on-year and rising 99 percent quarter-on-quarter, beating market expectations by 31 percent. The broker upgraded its recommendation to buy and raised the target price to 50.00 baht after significantly lifting its 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates.

Several brokers have summarized their top fundamental stock picks. Maybank Securities notes that SAPPE is expected to deliver the strongest profit growth in its sector at 16% in 2027, compared to the sector average of 9.4%, while its 2027 price-to-earnings ratio is only 12.2 times, the lowest in the group. CGS International reports that MINT's core earnings per share for the second quarter of 2026 rose 6% year-on-year and 1,282% quarter-on-quarter to 0.55 baht per share. BCP reported a strong net profit of 12.24 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026, exceeding estimates by 60%, driven by robust market gross refining margins and the start of sustainable aviation fuel production, which added approximately 1.0 billion baht to EBITDA. For TIDLOR, Finansia Syrus Securities expects a second-quarter 2026 profit of 1.49 billion baht, down 8% quarter-on-quarter but up 15% year-on-year, while DBS Vickers Securities forecasts a net profit of 1.48 billion baht, up 14.4% year-on-year but down 8.1% quarter-on-quarter, with full-year 2026 net profit projected to expand by 19.2%. As for PTT, Krungsri Securities expects normalized profit to surge 225% year-on-year and 80% quarter-on-quarter, better than previously estimated, thanks to the gas separation plant and the refining and petrochemical businesses.

Krungsri Securities states that Bangchak Corporation reported a second-quarter 2026 net profit of 12.239 billion baht, a strong recovery from a loss of 2.56 billion baht in the second quarter of 2025 and a 99% increase from the previous quarter. Core profit came in at 12.761 billion baht, up 2,035% from a year earlier and 27% from the prior quarter, driven by tight energy supply conditions following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This pushed the refinery business's gross refining margin to 18.4 dollars per barrel, a 314% increase year-on-year, while EBITDA at the OKEA resources business rose 102% from a year earlier and 64% from the previous quarter. The research team has raised its 2026 core profit forecast by 215% to 37.803 billion baht, and its 2027 forecast by 87% to 17.364 billion baht, while lifting the 2027 target price to 62.00 baht and maintaining a buy recommendation. It views BCP as a refinery that stands to benefit significantly from the tight supply cycle, expects 2026 profit to grow 257% year-on-year, with a substantial increase in cash flow and a high dividend yield of 8 to 10%.

Dao Securities Thailand expects the SET Index to move in a range of 1,590 to 1,655 points this week, as the Thai stock market enters the final stretch of second-quarter 2026 earnings announcements, which could trigger buying interest in stocks with strong results. External factors remain uncertain due to US-Iran negotiations and US inflation data. The strategy recommends trading stocks expected to report good earnings. Top picks today include BCP, which posted a second-quarter 2026 net profit of 12.2 billion baht, swinging from a loss a year earlier and rising 99 percent from the previous quarter, beating market expectations by 31 percent, and ADVICE, whose second-quarter 2026 profit is expected to hit a new record of 123 million baht, up 63 percent from a year earlier.

CGS International Securities Thailand estimates the SET index frame today at 1,600 to 1,620 points, noting that weaker-than-expected US employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, supporting risk assets. However, recovering oil prices due to uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are a drag. The firm recommends MINT and BCP. MINT's core earnings per share for the second quarter of 2026 rose 6 percent year-on-year and 1,282 percent quarter-on-quarter to 0.55 baht per share, driven by better-than-expected performance in its food business. BCP reported a net profit of 12.239 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026, 60 percent above estimates, thanks to lower-than-expected stock losses, strong market gross refining margins, and the start of sustainable aviation fuel production, which added around 1.0 billion baht to EBITDA.

Second-quarter 2025 earnings for US refiners stood out on surging refining margins. Valero Energy posted a net profit of 3.7 billion US dollars, a more than fivefold increase. HF Sinclair reported net profit of 892 million US dollars, up nearly four times, while PBF Energy swung to a net profit of 915 million US dollars from a net loss a year earlier. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum are also expected to report strong results. For Thai refiners, although they too benefit from refining margins, each company's performance will differ, depending on refinery configuration, crude oil quality, production efficiency, price risk management, and inventory gains or losses in each period. In addition, refiners must shoulder rising hidden costs, such as crude oil premiums, freight rates, and higher insurance premiums driven by Middle East risk, which could add as much as 3 to 6 baht per litre. They also face risks from oil inventory losses, higher financing costs from increased working capital, pressure from government and social measures, and the need to invest in the clean energy transition under Net Zero targets and ESG standards. Key listed Thai companies with core oil refining operations include Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, and IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, while PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, has a refining business as part of its integrated structure.

Asia Plus Securities' research unit says new US tariff measures under Section 301, one of the risks to Thai exports in the second half of the year, will slow exports because Thailand faces a 12.5% levy, higher than some ASEAN peers like the Philippines and Malaysia, potentially reducing competitiveness. Thailand also runs a growing surplus with the US, and markets must watch for surplus-production tariffs the US has yet to announce, which will pressure the Thai economy's export sector. Product groups hit by the 12.5% tariff include pet food, processed food, and beverages, covering stocks such as AAI, ITC, PLUS, TU, and COCOCO, as well as electronics, including HANA, DELTA, KCE, and CCET. Major Thai goods exempted from the 12.5% tariff are oil, gas, and fertiliser, which the US imports heavily, easing pressure on refinery and oil stocks like PTT, PTTEP, TOP, IRPC, and BCP, and goods already under Section 232, such as automobiles, steel, aluminium, and copper, which eases pressure on processed steel and steel pipe stocks like PAP, TMT, and SAM, and auto parts stocks like AH and SAT. The Commerce Ministry reported that Thai exports in June 2026 grew 20.8% year-on-year, above the market forecast of 15.2%, while imports rose 50.3%, above the 35.8% forecast, resulting in a trade deficit of 6.565 billion US dollars. Standout products included pet food, up 22.3%, expanding for a tenth straight month; rubber, up 12.5%, returning to growth for the first time in 14 months; and processed chicken, up 6.1%, expanding for a seventh consecutive month.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, says global investment conditions are highly volatile due to geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, and interest rates that may stay high longer than expected. It suggests coping strategies by increasing liquidity, reducing portfolio risk, and investing in stocks that benefit. It recommends three standout stocks: PTTEP, BCP, and RCL. ASPS estimates that Brent crude oil prices in July 2026 rose about 38 percent since the start of the month and surpassed 100 dollars per barrel, making the oil price trend in the third quarter of 2026 significantly higher than the second quarter. Meanwhile, the trade war has shifted to the US Section 301, which may add pressure on supply chains and exports. Prolonged high interest rates could pressure stock valuations, especially for companies with high debt. ASPS recommends four main strategies: increase cash holdings, use gold as a hedge, select energy, refinery, and shipping stocks, and shift into defensive stocks like CPALL and BDMS. It views PTTEP as benefiting from sustained high oil prices with outstanding dividends, BCP supported by recovering refining margins and reduced oil stock loss risk, and RCL gaining from rising freight rates.

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, assesses that the Thai stock market is in a consolidation phase, with resistance framed at 1,650 and 1,665 points and support at 1,630 and 1,626 points. This comes amid pressure from Brent crude oil prices surging past $100 per barrel, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing to test 4.7%, its highest in 1 year and 7 months, and the baht weakening to a 15-month low of 33.82 per dollar. Also weighing are US import tariff measures under Section 301 at rates of 10 to 12.5% on 60 countries, effective from 24 July 2026, though the impact on Thailand is limited as key exports like electronic parts and semiconductors are not covered. KSS expects stocks in the energy, energy security, and commercial banking sectors to be the main pillars supporting the index. It recommends standout energy stocks including PTT, PTTEP, BCP, TOP, and SPRC. In banking, it recommends KBANK and KTB. In telecoms, it recommends ADVANC and TRUE. In construction, it recommends STECON, PYLON, and INSET. In industrial estates, it recommends AMATA and WHA.

Shares in the refinery and petrochemical sector posted strong gains in morning trade today, with SPRC leading the pack, up 8.63 percent to 10.70 baht. TOP rose 1.56 percent to 65.00 baht, IRPC added 1.77 percent to 2.30 baht, BCP gained 1.67 percent to 45.75 baht, and PTTGC edged up 0.25 percent to 40.75 baht. Krungsri Securities' research unit expects SPRC to report a core operating profit of approximately 6.71 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, a jump of 3,386 percent from the same period a year earlier and a 314 percent increase from the previous quarter. That core profit came in above the research team's earlier estimate, as crude premiums were lower than expected while global supply of crude oil and petroleum products was tighter than assessed. Meanwhile, Land and Houses Securities estimates TOP will post a core profit of around 16 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 479 percent year-on-year, supported by strong refining margins despite extraordinary losses from oil stockpiles. Krungsri Securities has raised its 2026 core profit forecast for SPRC by 303 percent to 14.87 billion baht and maintains a buy rating with a target price of 11.50 baht. Land and Houses Securities recommends a speculative buy on TOP with a target price of 66 baht.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, has unveiled an investment strategy to cope with volatility from the Middle East conflict, the trade war, and the technology war, recommending two main themes. The first theme consists of stocks expected to deliver profit growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, including IVL, PTTGC, BCP, TRUE, SCGP, DOHOME, PTTEP, ADVICE, SC, ADVANC, PTT, and MASTER. The second theme covers stocks with growing profits but lagging share prices, namely BCPG, AMATA, DELTA, and CRC. At the same time, ASPS has designated DELTA, BDMS, and CPALL as standout picks due to their safety from wartime conditions and lack of negative impact. The firm also recommends investing in foreign securities depositary receipts such as MICRON01 to capture strong earnings momentum from memory chip demand, and OIL03 to benefit from the US-Iran conflict boosting oil prices. Another noteworthy point is that since April 2026, the earnings per share estimate for the Thai stock market has been revised up by 3.8 percent, the second highest in the world, trailing only the Dow Jones index and bucking the trend of downward revisions in regional markets.

Asia Plus Securities says the stock market is facing pressure from three major wars: the Middle East conflict, the trade war, and the technology war. Its research team scored 20 industry groups on which would survive or benefit. The winning groups, with scores between 0 and +2, are energy, insurance, healthcare, petrochemicals, and retail. Recommended stocks in these groups include TOP, BCP, BLA, TLI, BDMS, BH, PTTGC, IVL, CPALL, and COM7. The standout stocks of the day, chosen from groups with non-negative scores, are DELTA, BDMS, and CPALL.

The Fuel Oil Fund Executive Committee has approved an increase in subsidies, yet retail prices for all fuel grades are still rising by 0.90 baht per litre. The renewed and prolonged fighting in the Middle East, combined with a new wave of widening attacks and tensions in the Red Sea involving the Houthis, has driven diesel prices in the Singapore market to as high as 163.59 US dollars per barrel and gasoline to 124.92 US dollars per barrel on 22 July 2026. This has forced the Fuel Oil Fund to shoulder compensation costs of approximately 651.31 million baht per day. The committee therefore adjusted the fund rate, raising the subsidy for regular high-speed diesel to 8.57 baht per litre, resulting in a retail price of 36.69 baht per litre, and increasing the subsidy for gasohol 95 to 2.89 baht per litre, bringing its retail price to 36.69 baht per litre. The new rates take effect from 23 July 2026. Meanwhile, PTT Oil and Retail Business and Bangchak Corporation have raised retail prices for all fuel grades by 0.90 baht per litre, effective from 05:00 on 22 July 2026 onwards.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

PTT Oil and Retail Business and Bangchak Corporation have raised retail prices for petrol, gasohol, and diesel by 0.85 baht per litre, effective from 5 a.m. on 22 July onwards. As a result, retail prices in Bangkok, excluding local maintenance tax, are as follows: petrol 95 at 44.78 baht per litre, gasohol 95 at 35.79 baht per litre, gasohol 91 at 35.42 baht per litre, E20 at 30.79 baht per litre, E85 at 26.73 baht per litre, diesel at 35.79 baht per litre, and diesel B20 at 30.79 baht per litre. Meanwhile, super power GSH95 and GSH99, as well as premium diesel, high premium diesel plus, and high premium 98 plus, remain unchanged.

Kasikorn Securities notes that President Donald Trump shows no sign of negotiating with Iran anytime soon and warns of retaliation if the Houthis disrupt shipping in the Red Sea. As fighting enters its tenth day and mediators still try to revive talks, Brent crude oil prices hold steady around 90 dollars per barrel amid supply risk concerns following attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats to blockade shipping. The research team views this as positive for upstream energy and refinery stocks such as PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, BCP, and PTTGC, driven by higher oil prices, but negative for stocks reliant on energy and transport costs, including airlines and logistics, if the situation drags on.

Analysts assess that second-quarter 2026 results for the refining group — TOP, BCP, SPRC, and IRPC — will weaken from the previous quarter, but expect this to be the year's low point before a gradual recovery in the second half. Supporting factors include still-strong Singapore refining margins, government policy risks that the market has largely priced in, and a return to full production capacity after maintenance shutdowns. The stock with the most buy recommendations is TOP, with a target price of 55.00 to 59.50 baht, followed by BCP with a target of 54.00 to 61.00 baht, and SPRC with a target of 8.80 to 10.00 baht. IRPC still receives only hold or speculative buy ratings, with a target price of 1.80 to 2.10 baht, as its petrochemical business continues to face oversupply and high debt.

BCP shares closed the morning session up 3.45% at 45.00 baht, after Asia Plus Securities forecast second-quarter 2026 net profit of approximately 10 billion baht, a 66% increase from the previous quarter. The gain was supported by normalised operating profit, which is expected to grow 25.4% to around 12 billion baht, and net extraordinary items narrowing to about 2.2 billion baht from 3.7 billion baht in the prior quarter. Hedging losses fell to roughly 2.1 billion baht, and no inventory loss is expected to be booked this quarter. The research team raised its full-year 2026 net profit estimate to about 21 billion baht and its 2027 forecast to around 14 billion baht, while lifting the end-2026 target price to 48 baht per share from 43 baht, and maintained a buy recommendation.