RBOB Gasoline Futures

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's economic symposium, the Jackson Hole Meeting, will be held from the 27th to the 29th in Wyoming, where newly appointed Fed Chair Warsh will deliver his first speech on the 28th. The latest July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4%, slowing for the second consecutive month, but the Trump administration's intensified sanctions on Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept gasoline prices elevated, fueling early rate hike speculation. Additionally, concerns over fiscal deficits and prolonged inflation, along with increased funding demand from the AI boom, pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of over 5.3% last week. Bank of America warned that if the speech does not address measures to curb inflation, the 30-year yield could surge to 5.5%. With the focus on whether a September rate hike will occur, Warsh's remarks have added to policy uncertainty, and the market is watching whether he will mention a review of communication methods.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 95,000 barrels last week, while analysts had expected a rise of 1.6 million barrels. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for US crude futures, rose by 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels, more than the 700,000-barrel decline analysts had forecast. Distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, decreased by 2.2 million barrels, versus an expected drop of 1.6 million barrels.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi indicated on the 25th that the government will continue to keep gasoline prices at around 170 yen per liter. She revealed that she has instructed Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Ryosei Akazawa to consult with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama in order to secure the necessary financial resources. She made the remarks to reporters at the Prime Minister's Office.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the global oil market is bearish for crude but bullish for refined products, speaking at the ONS conference in Stavanger, Norway. Crude shipments continue to move through the Strait of Hormuz without issues, but higher shipping costs have stopped all refined product flows through the waterway, he said. Ukrainian drone strikes have reduced fuel supplies from Russia by 3 million to 3.5 million barrels per day. Pouyanne noted that shipping a very large crude carrier with capacity for 2 million barrels through Hormuz costs about $20 million, while for smaller vessels that transport refined products, this additional expense is too high, resulting in no product tankers moving through Hormuz. Benchmark crude oil trades near $90 per barrel in London, below levels seen at the start of the war, while the premium for products such as diesel compared to crude reached near its highest level in over 15 years.

China increased fuel exports by 6.7% in July compared with June, even as annual exports fell 12.9%, according to Chinese customs data cited by Reuters. Refiners shipped 4.65 million tons of refined products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and bunkering fuel, with diesel exports surging 88% to 810,000 tons amid a global diesel squeeze caused by the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Gasoline exports jumped 320% from June but remained 55.3% lower than a year earlier, while jet fuel exports rose 42% month-on-month but fell 33% annually, after Beijing relaxed fuel export curbs imposed in March following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The latest easing, announced earlier this month, allows 2.7 million tons of refined products to be exported through the end of August, with some volumes rollable to September, prompted by abundant domestic stocks that analysts say helped prevent a sharper oil price spike.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed this week that oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to 15 million barrels per day and even topped the pre-war average of 20 million bpd on Sunday, but vessel-tracking services and commodity analysts are struggling to reconcile these numbers with their observations. Ship-tracking data shows oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are, at best, half the volume cited by Secretary Wright, with most vessel-tracking companies estimating only about 9 million bpd leaving the region via all its export channels so far this month, according to data compiled by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell. Kpler data showed earlier this week that vessel traffic at the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline as last week's hopes of negotiations of a U.S.-Iran deal began to fade, and even the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook that traffic at Hormuz remains severely constrained and assumes this would be the case throughout August. Secretary Wright doubled down on his claim, posting that the U.S. Department of Energy maintains the best available data and that many private businesses undercount ships due to covert movement, but he did not reveal how the data is compiled. Analysts note the next five to six weeks will show how accurate the U.S. claim is as exports now leaving the Middle East begin appearing in import data in various countries, while the national average price of gasoline remained above $4 per gallon this week, the highest August on record.

Iran has confirmed it still controls the opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz, while oil shipments have nearly ground to a halt, and U.S. President Donald Trump has warned Americans to accept higher oil prices amid no sign of the United States and Iran returning to peace talks. Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's deputy foreign minister, said in a post on X that the Strait of Hormuz will open and close only under Iran's orders, and that as long as the United States does not accept defeat, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade of the strait. Trump said at a political rally in Garden City, New York, that Americans should accept paying slightly more for fuel to ensure Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons. Data from the American Automobile Association shows the average U.S. gasoline price is about 4.08 dollars per gallon, up 29 percent from the same period last year. Data from ship-tracking analytics firm Kpler shows that on Friday only two vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, with no crude oil shipments observed, compared with more than 130 vessels per day before the war. The near-total blockade of the strait has pushed crude oil futures prices up by about 1 dollar per barrel, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude on track to rise 6 percent and 5.4 percent respectively this week.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday, August 14, that he will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz to be US territory, as the war between the United States and Iran has dragged on for nearly six months with no end in sight. Speaking at a police academy in New York state, Trump said that after the United States defeats Iran, which is suffering heavy losses, he will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz to be US territory. Trump claimed that the United States still maintains strong control over this vital shipping route through a naval blockade of Iranian ports, describing the blockade as an unstoppable measure and an iron wall. He also called on Americans to accept higher gasoline prices during the war in order to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, saying that what the United States is doing is a great service to the world. The war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, which began in late February, along with Iran's subsequent closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil and other commodity prices worldwide. Iran has repeatedly insisted that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, until the United States lifts its naval blockade. Iran also maintains that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iranian control and management, while Trump faces growing domestic pressure to end the war.

September WTI crude oil closed up 1.15 dollars, or 1.42 percent, on Friday, while September RBOB gasoline closed up 0.0561, or 1.79 percent. Crude oil saw support after reports that Iran on Thursday night attacked two Abu Dhabi oil vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting Iran intends to continue threatening vessel traffic to impose long-term control over the Strait. However, oil prices were still down from Tuesday's two-week high as the Trump administration pivots to economic pressure rather than fresh US military attacks, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying the administration will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains slow, with Energy Aspects reporting only an average of five vessels transiting, down from 14 ships a day seen after the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding in June. The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that the global oil supply deficit will worsen, with global oil inventories falling in the third quarter at twice the previously estimated rate due to ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran war. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, attacking Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second-highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022. As a bearish factor, OPEC delegates on August 2 approved their final increase of 188,000 barrels per day in crude production for September, restoring all of the 1.65 million barrels per day supply cutback made in 2023. Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels, the largest increase in more than three years, mainly due to a sharp drop in US crude oil exports, while gasoline inventories fell by 968,000 barrels. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended August 14 rose by one to a 1.25-year high of 455 rigs.

Crude oil prices rose on continued tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. September WTI crude oil is up 0.63, or 0.78 percent, and September RBOB gasoline is up 0.0316, or 1.01 percent. Crude oil saw some support overnight after reports that two Abu Dhabi oil vessels were attacked by Iran on Thursday night while moving through the Strait of Hormuz. However, oil prices are down from Tuesday's two-week high as the Trump administration pivots to economic pressure rather than fresh US military attacks to try to force Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent said today that the administration will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran that have never been seen in the history of economic isolation of a country. The economic measures would add to the current US naval blockade of Iranian ports. There have been no signs of progress toward a US-Iran agreement to fully open the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian military spokesperson said Thursday that no ship can safely pass the Strait of Hormuz without Iran's authorization and supervision and that President Trump's claims of control over the Strait are nothing more than lies. The Iranian statement was in response to President Trump's comment late Tuesday that the US has total control over the Hormuz Strait and that we own it. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains slow, tightening global crude supplies and boosting oil prices. Energy Aspects said on Monday that only an average of five vessels are transiting through the Strait, down from 14 ships a day seen after the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding in June. In a supportive factor, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report, released on Wednesday, that the global oil supply deficit will worsen, even as oil demand is taking a hit from the war and high prices. The IEA said global oil inventories will fall in Q3 at twice the previously estimated rate because of ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran war. Crude prices have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Ukraine has attacked Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second-highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates on August 2 approved their final increase of 188,000 bpd in crude production for September. The group has now restored all of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to hold output steady for the rest of the year after the September hike. The production increases by OPEC+ might prove difficult to achieve amid renewed US-Iran military attacks in the region. OPEC's July crude production rose by 1.16 million bpd to 19.44 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell 0.7 percent week over week to 119.28 million barrels in the week ended August 7. Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels, the largest increase in more than three years. The increase was mainly due to a sharp drop in US crude oil exports. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories fell by 968,000 barrels, slightly less than the expected 1.15 million barrel decline. Wednesday's EIA report showed that US crude oil inventories as of August 7 were 1.8 percent below the seasonal five-year average, gasoline inventories were 5.8 percent below the seasonal five-year average, and distillate inventories were 11.9 percent below the five-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending August 7 rose 0.01 percent week over week to 13.805 million barrels per day, just below the record high of 13.862 million barrels per day posted in November 2025. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended August 7 rose by 3 to a 14-month high of 454 rigs.

The United States has suffered a strategic debacle in its war with Iran, allowing Iran to enhance its position in the Gulf region through a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. While benchmark crude prices have settled around 90 dollars per barrel, the crack spread, which reflects the price difference between crude oil and petroleum products, has surged by about 40 dollars per barrel since late February. This means the real economic cost for consumers and businesses is rising even more than crude prices suggest. The widening spread reflects reduced refining capacity in the Gulf due to the Hormuz blockade, on top of diminished Russian refining capacity. Iran continues its attacks using cheap drones and missiles, while the U.S. is depleting its stockpile of expensive Patriot missiles. For Gulf states, U.S. military bases are now seen as a risk rather than a deterrent. As long as Iran remains in power, free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will not return, and Iran is expected to impose transit fees, effectively raising the real benchmark price of crude oil.

The Fuel Fund Executive Committee has resolved to increase retail prices for all fuel types by 0.85 baht per litre, effective 12 August 2026, due to escalating tensions in the Middle East where negotiations between the United States and Iran appear to have reached an impasse, dashing hopes for the reopening of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, while global oil prices continue to climb. On 11 August, diesel prices in the Singapore market surged past 160 US dollars per barrel, and gasoline prices exceeded 116 US dollars per barrel. As a result, the Fuel Fund has been shouldering a compensation burden of approximately 343 million baht per day, necessitating a reduction in this burden to preserve liquidity for long-term price stabilisation. New retail prices in the Bangkok area, excluding local maintenance taxes, are as follows: benzene 95 at 45.83 baht per litre, gasohol 95 at 36.84 baht per litre, and diesel at 37.54 baht per litre.

The United States expects oil supply disruptions from the US-Iran war to reach approximately 600,000 barrels per day through the end of next year as the conflict continues to restrict shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil transported through the waterway averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, a sharp decline from an average of 21.6 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2025 before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran. The Energy Information Administration raised gasoline and diesel price forecasts for 2026 by 3.7% and 5.4% respectively and increased its 2027 forecast for retail gasoline prices by 6.5% from its estimates a month earlier. The agency estimates that Middle East production shut-ins eased to average about 5.5 million barrels a day in July, compared to 7.5 million barrels a day in June, but the volume of oil shut in is expected to increase again to 6.6 million barrels a day in the third quarter. The report assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi Arabian crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not resulted in additional production shut-ins, and if that holds, most production and trade flows are expected to return to pre-war levels by early 2027.

President Donald Trump has ordered a 90-day extension of the Jones Act waiver, effective until mid-November, and limited its scope to cover only vessels transporting certain energy resources. This is the second extension since Trump first issued a 60-day waiver on March 17, after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, and later extended it by 90 days in mid-May. A White House official told CNBC that this round of waivers will be considered on a voyage-by-voyage basis by the Department of Defense and the U.S. Maritime Administration. Since the initial waiver, 210 voyages have been approved, mostly by tankers carrying gasoline and crude oil, totaling nearly 55 million barrels of oil, according to Maritime Administration data and Cato Institute estimates. The extension comes amid the ongoing Iran war that continues to roil the economy, with oil prices rising and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling by 6.1 million barrels to 298.7 million barrels, the lowest level since January 1983, after Trump released 172 million barrels in March.

Drought caused by extreme heat is worsening on Germany's Rhine River, making it difficult for cargo ships to navigate. At the Kaub gauging station near Koblenz, the water level fell below 20 centimeters on August 5, setting a new record low. Cargo ships are either reducing their loads to about a quarter of normal capacity or becoming unable to sail. Supplies of oil and chemical products are being disrupted, leading to further rises in gasoline prices. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy has indicated that this could shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off the growth rate, with wide-ranging impacts on industry. The German government held an emergency meeting with industry leaders on the 6th, deciding to lift the ban on Sunday truck transport and simplify the use of rail freight, but the effects are seen as limited.

Crude oil prices rose on Friday as uncertainty over a proposed plan by Iran and Oman to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz supported the market. September WTI crude settled up 0.89 at 1.15 percent and September RBOB gasoline gained 0.0468 at 1.59 percent. A joint statement from the two countries is under review, with the route potentially active for two to four months, though Iranian officials said a full reopening depends on the US lifting its blockade on Iranian ports. Gains were limited after President Trump said negotiations are moving along, while the Wall Street Journal reported Arab negotiators are concerned Iran may not guarantee compliance. Additional support came from Houthi attacks on a Saudi oil tanker and intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, which have pushed Russian crude-processing rates to a 24-year low of 3.51 million barrels per day in July. Bearish factors include robust Chinese crude inventories, stronger Russian exports with a four-week average above 4 million barrels per day, and OPEC's approval of a final 188,000 barrel per day production increase for September.

Phillips 66 expects soaring refining margins will last through the next quarter and into 2027, as supply disruptions from the war in Iran continue to weigh on fuel markets. Executive VP Brian Mandell said on the company's earnings call that markets are short 7 million barrels per day of refined products from the Middle East and Asia, and another 1.4 million barrels per day from Russia, setting up stronger margins through the third quarter and perhaps the rest of next year. The company reported a four-fold increase in second-quarter earnings to $3.85 billion, or $9.55 per share, with its refining segment's adjusted earnings jumping to $3.09 billion and realized margins more than doubling to $24.08 per barrel. Refining utilization rates edged up to 96% in the second quarter, and the company plans to operate in the mid-90% range in the third quarter. Net debt fell nearly 25% quarter-over-quarter to $16.5 billion, putting Phillips 66 on track to reach its $17 billion debt target by the end of 2026, a year ahead of schedule.

The US Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 1.5 million barrel decline. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for US crude futures rose by 2.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels, more than the 1.3 million barrel drop analysts had forecast. Meanwhile, distillate fuel inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, decreased by 3.5 million barrels, against expectations of a 206,000 barrel increase.

Stephen Schork, principal and editor at The Schork Group, says refiners have virtually no ability to increase capacity and deliver more gasoline and diesel products to lower costs for consumers. His comments come after President Donald Trump scolded ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. and Chevron Corp. Monday for making too much money as oil prices surged amid the war in Iran.

President Donald Trump scolded ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. and Chevron Corp. for their soaring profits, as oil prices surged amid the war in Iran he launched in February alongside Israel. Trump on Monday said the biggest US oil companies are making too much money, urging them to give some of that back to the public and cut retail gasoline prices. ExxonMobil and Chevron more than doubled their second-quarter net income on the heels of global energy market disruptions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, and instead of using the money for investor proceeds, the supermajors put it toward lowering their debts. Americans are now paying more than $4 per gallon of regular gasoline on average, and voters have given Trump increasingly poor marks over his handling of the economy and the war, imperiling his fellow Republicans' chances in November's midterm elections. Trump in June ordered the Justice Department to investigate why gasoline prices had not fallen, suggesting companies could be engaged in price gouging.

Exxon Mobil and Chevron warned that global supplies of diesel and other refined products will likely remain tight, leading to persistently high fuel prices in the coming months. Both companies reported large jumps in second-quarter refining profits, with Exxon's refining unit collecting $5.5 billion in earnings, up from $1.4 billion a year earlier. Nearly 10% of the world's refining capacity is effectively offline due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, and China's export ban, according to Melius Research. Exxon CEO Darren Woods said available capacity relative to demand is the lowest he has ever seen, while Chevron CEO Mike Wirth expects upward pressure on product pricing into the third quarter and beyond. Refined product inventories are approaching historical lows, causing gasoline prices to disconnect from oil prices and trade on storage levels instead.

Oil and gasoline prices face continued uncertainty as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran enters its sixth month with no resolution in sight. President Donald Trump said on July 31 that U.S. forces would attack Iran over the weekend, while a drone attack on Egypt's Damietta Port set two ships ablaze. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, with only two tankers passing on July 31 compared to a pre-war daily average of 120. U.S. gasoline prices hovered around $4.10 a gallon, up 45% year-to-date, and trader John Kilduff sees them reaching $4.25 to $4.50 in August. Light sweet crude ended July at $84.67 a barrel, up 22% for the month, and Brent rose 24% to $87.93.

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods warned that US consumers should not expect relief at the gas pump anytime soon, despite crude oil prices retreating from their peak. In a post-earnings interview with CNBC, Woods pointed to a disconnect between crude costs and gasoline prices, driven by global refinery constraints rather than raw crude prices. The ongoing US-Iran conflict has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing global refining capacity by nearly 9% and pushing crack spreads to historically elevated levels of $50–$60 per barrel. Exxon’s refining business earned $5.5 billion in the second quarter, helping total company profits more than double year-over-year to $14.5 billion on revenue of $116 billion. Woods noted that even after a ceasefire, normalization of oil flows would take considerable time, with analysts estimating four to six months after a durable ceasefire for full normalization, likely not until early 2027.

In a blog post dated the 31st, the European Central Bank pointed out that oil refining margins widening to near record levels are one factor behind rising fuel prices in the euro area. The refining margin embedded in diesel retail prices rose from 0.10 euros per litre before the Iran conflict to 0.35 euros in the first three weeks of July, while for petrol it widened from 0.04 euros in February to 0.23 euros in July. Global fuel supply is tight due to disruptions at Middle Eastern refineries and reduced Russian refining volumes, and Russia has extended its ban on diesel and petrol exports until 31 January 2027. The blog said margins are likely to rise further in August, but based on futures prices on the 20th of this month, it projected a decline to 0.16 euros by the end of 2027. The content of the blog does not necessarily represent the official views of the ECB.

The National Development and Reform Commission of China has announced an increase in the retail prices of gasoline and diesel, effective tomorrow. The price of gasoline will rise by 685 yuan per tonne, and the price of diesel will rise by 655 yuan per tonne. This price adjustment follows the mechanism under which China adjusts fuel prices every 10 working days in response to changes in global crude oil prices.

Petrol shortages are worsening in Russia, one of the world's largest oil producers, with queues of up to 39 hours forming at filling stations and sales restrictions imposed in at least 56 of the country's 83 federal subjects. The main cause is the loss of more than 25 percent of domestic refining capacity due to Ukrainian drone strikes on oil infrastructure. In Crimea, sales to the general public have been effectively halted entirely, and some regions have introduced odd-even number plate rationing for refuelling days. The government has extended the ban on petrol exports until the end of the year and is scrambling to respond by importing fuel from countries such as India and relaxing quality standards, but the situation remains severe in Siberia and public discontent is growing.

The Russian government has announced an extension of the full ban on gasoline exports until January 31, 2027. The new measure will take effect from August 1, 2026, to maintain stability in the domestic fuel market. The ban on exports of diesel fuel, marine fuel, and kerosene will only be in force until September 1, 2026, after which direct producers will be allowed to resume exports of these three fuels. The government will still permit exports under intergovernmental agreements and for humanitarian assistance as per government resolutions.

Crude oil prices surged on Wednesday as the US-Iran conflict intensified, threatening global energy supplies. September WTI crude closed up 5.20 dollars, or 6.56 percent, and September RBOB gasoline closed up 0.0815 dollars, or 2.59 percent. Gains accelerated after President Trump said the US will “hit Iran hard” following an Iranian ballistic missile attack on a US base in Jordan, and after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have halted three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Weekly EIA crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 7.17 million barrels to a 7.75-year low, while crude supplies at Cushing sank to a nearly 12-year low. The US and Saudi Arabia also launched a joint attack on Iran-aligned terrorists in Iraq, and diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain at an impasse.