PBF Energy Inc

U.S. ethanol blending credit prices plunged Monday to their lowest levels in more than four months after the Environmental Protection Agency extended a September 1 compliance deadline for refiners and ruled on long-pending small refinery exemption requests by the end of August. Conventional ethanol RINs traded as low as $1.75, down $0.34 from Friday and their lowest level since April 15, according to data from Argus Media, after the credits had traded as high as $2.50 on July 7. RIN prices lost substantial value again during Monday's session in response to the EPA's impending small refinery exemption decisions, after falling 5% on Friday. Market participants expect the EPA's rulings to free up a significant number of credits, with refining and ethanol industry analysts estimating that the exemptions could free up 1.2 billion to 1.8 billion RINs that small refiners could use to meet their 2025 compliance obligations, after the EPA had previously indicated it could reallocate 990 million RINs associated with exemptions. Extending the compliance deadline is seen as signaling some form of RIN relief for refiners' 2026 and 2027 obligations as well, University of Illinois agricultural economist Scott Irwin told Reuters.

PBF Energy has earned a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) following significant upward revisions to its earnings estimates. The current-quarter consensus estimate has risen 42.74% over the last 30 days to $5.01 per share, while the full-year estimate has climbed 27.92% to $10.94 per share. Two analysts raised their current-quarter estimates and three raised their full-year estimates, outweighing one negative revision in each period. The stock has already gained 51.2% over the past four weeks, and the improving earnings outlook suggests further upside may remain.

Second-quarter 2025 earnings for US refiners stood out on surging refining margins. Valero Energy posted a net profit of 3.7 billion US dollars, a more than fivefold increase. HF Sinclair reported net profit of 892 million US dollars, up nearly four times, while PBF Energy swung to a net profit of 915 million US dollars from a net loss a year earlier. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum are also expected to report strong results. For Thai refiners, although they too benefit from refining margins, each company's performance will differ, depending on refinery configuration, crude oil quality, production efficiency, price risk management, and inventory gains or losses in each period. In addition, refiners must shoulder rising hidden costs, such as crude oil premiums, freight rates, and higher insurance premiums driven by Middle East risk, which could add as much as 3 to 6 baht per litre. They also face risks from oil inventory losses, higher financing costs from increased working capital, pressure from government and social measures, and the need to invest in the clean energy transition under Net Zero targets and ESG standards. Key listed Thai companies with core oil refining operations include Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, and IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, while PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, has a refining business as part of its integrated structure.

PBF Energy reported second-quarter 2026 earnings and revenue well above consensus expectations, driven by stronger refining margins and higher throughput volumes. The stock has surged 50.46% over the past month and delivered a very large five-year total shareholder return. The most followed narrative values the company at $49.62 per share, suggesting the stock is 45.7% overvalued relative to its last close of $72.28. However, PBF trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 times, compared with a peer average of 13.2 times and an estimated fair ratio of 9.7 times, indicating potential upside if business risks ease. Key risks include reliability questions at the Martinez refinery and exposure to changing fuel demand.

Zacks Equity Research identifies Delek US Holdings, PBF Energy, and Valero Energy as well-positioned to benefit from tight fuel supplies and steady transportation demand. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining & Marketing industry ranks in the top 8% of 247 Zacks industries, with aggregate 2026 earnings estimates up 102.8% over the past year. The industry has gained 60.9% in the past year, outperforming the broader sector's 26.9% rise and the S&P 500's 18.7% gain, and trades at an EV/EBITDA of 6.25X versus the S&P 500's 18.24X. Delek US Holdings carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) with a 2026 earnings growth estimate of 25.9% and shares up 174.3% in a year. PBF Energy, also a Zacks Rank #1, has an expected three-to-five-year EPS growth rate of 56% and shares up 147.6% in a year. Valero Energy, a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with a market capitalization of more than $90 billion, has a 2026 EPS growth estimate of 243.6% and shares up 114.4% in a year.

U.S. refiner margins shattered records this week as low stockpiles and supply disruptions from escalating U.S.-Iran attacks threaten fuel shortfalls. The 3-2-1 crack spread, a key profitability benchmark, settled at a record $69.66 per barrel on Nymex Thursday. Diesel has been the main driver, with disruptions to Middle Eastern exports and a temporary Russian export ban tightening an already-strained market, while gasoline supplies are also a growing concern as refiners shift yields toward diesel and jet fuel. U.S. diesel inventories are down nearly 11 million barrels and gasoline inventories down more than 42 million barrels from pre-war levels, and both are well below their five-year seasonal averages. National average retail gasoline prices reached $3.99 per gallon on Saturday, up nearly $0.84 from a year ago, and analysts warn that depleted inventories and damaged Middle East refineries will keep prices elevated, benefiting refiners whose shares have surged this year.

Shares of petroleum refiner PBF Energy rose 10.5% in the week to Friday morning, driven by widening crack spreads amid escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. The 3-2-1 crack spread, a key profitability metric for refiners, climbed by double digits over the last week to close to $69, up from nearly $43 at the start of June and just $20 at the beginning of 2026. The increase followed the collapse of a memorandum of understanding with Iran, which has restricted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global crude oil flows and a major source of refined products. PBF benefits because it can secure domestic crude and profit from the wider spreads, and the longer the disruption persists, the more the company stands to gain.

Seeking Alpha's quantitative model has identified the highest- and lowest-rated large-cap energy stocks ahead of the second-quarter earnings season. The five highest-rated stocks, all with Strong Buy ratings, are National Energy Services Reunited with a quant score of 4.96, PBF Energy at 4.94, Par Pacific at 4.92, Neste Oyj at 4.90, and Frontline at 4.87. The five lowest-rated stocks are Energy Fuels with a Strong Sell rating and a score of 1.21, Centrus Energy at 1.27, Comstock Resources at 1.42, Peabody Energy at 1.69, and Technip Energies at 1.91. The analysis indicates top-rated names are driven by growth, momentum, and earnings revisions, while low-rated names show sharp deterioration in revisions and momentum, particularly in construction-linked and clean-energy segments. The energy sector is expected to post the strongest earnings growth of all eleven S&P 500 sectors in Q2 2026, with year-over-year earnings rising 122.9%, according to FactSet, as WTI crude averaged $92.55 per barrel, about 45% higher than a year earlier.

Valero Energy is well-positioned to benefit from elevated refining margins and strong fuel demand, supported by constrained global refining capacity and tightening product flows. The 3-2-1 crack spread, a key indicator of refining profitability, has risen significantly since the start of the Middle East conflict and remains elevated. Management highlighted a sharp increase in export demand, especially for jet fuel and distillates, which has contributed to declining U.S. product inventories. Valero's strategically located Gulf Coast refining system and extensive logistics network position it to capture increased export volumes while capitalizing on resilient domestic demand. Low product inventories in key markets are expected to support refining fundamentals and keep margins steady.

PBF Energy has seen a significant improvement in its earnings outlook, with analysts raising estimates for the current quarter and full year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter has increased 15.85% over the last 30 days to $3.39 per share, while the full-year estimate has risen 14.72% to $7.69 per share. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), reflecting the positive estimate revisions. PBF Energy shares have gained 11% over the past four weeks.