Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited

Analysts at DAOL Securities Thailand give a positive view on the banking group, which will announce interim dividend payments earlier than last year and with a greater chance than expected, because first-half 2026 profit was higher than estimated. Interim dividends will be announced starting from 25 August to 4 September 2026. They expect KKP, KTB, TCAP and TTB have a chance to pay higher first-half 2026 dividends than in first-half 2025. For first-half 2026 dividend yields, TTB is highest at 2.4%, followed by TISCO at 1.6% and TCAP at 1.55%. The dividend yield for 2026 remains high at around 6%, above the market average of 3%. At the same time, a new investment cycle will help support total loans in 2026 with a chance to beat expectations, mainly from large corporate and government loans. They maintain their 2026 net profit estimate for the banking group at 221 billion baht, down 1.5% because NIM has declined along with the recent downtrend in interest rates, but fee income is growing well from wealth management and provisions have decreased. They maintain an overweight rating because the banking group's average dividend yield is around 6%, higher than the stock market average of 3%. Valuation is still not expensive, trading at only 0.98 times price-to-book value, with KTB and KBANK as top picks.

Asia Plus Securities' research team said profits of 283 Thai listed companies out of 682 that have reported second-quarter results came in 11.9% above market expectations. Combined with estimates for the remaining companies, which cover 93% of market capitalisation, it assesses that total second-quarter profit could reach 355 billion baht, up 6.7% from the previous quarter and 8.2% from a year earlier. This raises expectations that second-quarter profit for fiscal 2026 may set a record high, continuing from the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The main growth drivers are petrochemicals, packaging and energy. Including commodity-linked groups such as energy, petrochemicals, food and agriculture, they would account for 44% of total market profit, compared with a normal level of about 30%. The research team views that first-half profit already represents 60% of the full-year target, reducing pressure in the third and fourth quarters and opening upside to the market-wide earnings per share estimate of 95 baht per share, which gives room for the index target to be revised upward. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows into the Thai stock market slowed clearly in August, with cumulative net selling of nearly 10 billion baht, while retail investors were net buyers supporting the index. The research team recommends three stock groups: companies with better-than-expected results such as IRPC, TCAP, KCE and CENTEL; companies benefiting from commodities and geopolitics such as TASCO, RCL, BCP and PTTGC; and companies expected to recover in the second half such as THAI, ERW and BCH. Its top three picks are PTT, BDMS and CENTEL.

Asia Plus Securities has upgraded its recommendation on TCAP to Buy, with a target price of 105 baht, after second-quarter 2026 net profit came in at 2.64 billion baht, up 25% from the previous quarter and 28% from a year earlier. The increase was driven mainly by non-interest income, including dividend income, share of profit from associates, and investment gains. Net interest income fell 5% from the previous quarter and 12% from a year earlier, as THANI tightened lending, causing net loans to decline 4.2% from the previous quarter and 5.7% from the start of the year. Interest expenses rose due to financial restructuring, but provisions fell 79% from a year earlier on better asset quality, representing a credit cost of 0.5%. The cost-to-income ratio was 12.3%, down from 13.0% in the previous quarter and 13.9% a year earlier. For the first six months of 2026, net profit was 4.77 billion baht, up 26% from a year earlier, equal to 52% of Asia Plus Securities' full-year net profit estimate. Asia Plus Securities raised its 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts by 16% and 20% to 9.23 billion baht, up 19% from a year earlier, and 9.6 billion baht, up 1% from a year earlier, respectively, on better-than-expected non-interest income, especially a significant increase in dividend income and improved insurance income, as well as a smaller-than-expected decline in provisions, implying a full-year credit cost of 0.6%. It also raised its dividend payout ratio to 57.5% from 50%, equal to a dividend of 5.06 baht per share, and expects an interim dividend of 1.35 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 1.5%. The share buyback program of up to 7.5 billion baht, covering 104.86 million shares or no more than 10% of paid-up shares, from 17 August 2026 to 16 February 2027, will help lift shareholder return by 1% to 10.4% by the end of 2027, supporting the share price and limiting downside risk. The target price of 105 baht is based on a price-to-book value of 1.17 times, assuming return on equity of 10.2% and cost of equity of 9.2%. Although the share price has already risen more than 48% from the start of the year and hit a new 30-year high, it still offers a high dividend yield of 5.7% to 6.1% per year during 2026 to 2028. On technical factors, the price has formed a double bottom and is holding clearly above the 5-day moving average. In the short term, it made a new high with a long white candle. Intraday support is at 88.25 to 88 baht. The trend is to continue rising within an uptrend channel, with resistance at 90 and 93 baht.

Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited, or TCAP, reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 2.641 billion baht, up 27.8% from a year earlier and 24.4% from the previous quarter, beating market expectations by 24.9%. The main driver was non-interest income, which rose 28.8% from the prior quarter after dividend income jumped to 797 million baht from just 68 million baht in the first quarter. Yuanta Securities raised its 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts by 10.7% and 12.9% respectively, while maintaining a trading recommendation and setting a new 2027 target price of 85 baht. It noted that downside risk is limited by a 7.5 billion baht share buyback program running from 17 August 2026 to 16 February 2027, and expects a further dividend yield of 4.7%.

TCAP shares continued to climb more than 7% after the board approved a share repurchase program for financial management, with a budget not exceeding 7.5 billion baht. The company will buy back up to 104.86 million shares, representing no more than 10% of total outstanding shares, through the Stock Exchange of Thailand's automatic matching system between 17 August 2026 and 16 February 2027. Analysts at Krungsri Securities upgraded the stock to buy and raised the target price to 85 baht from 60 baht, citing a 5% dividend yield and the buyback program as supportive factors. Meanwhile, Dao Securities Thailand lifted its target price to 82 baht from 68 baht and forecast second-quarter 2026 net profit of 2.15 billion baht, above its previous estimate.

Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited, or TCAP, has announced a share repurchase program for up to 104.86 million shares, representing 10% of total issued shares, with a budget not exceeding 7.5 billion baht. The buyback will run from 17 August 2026 to 16 February 2027, using the automatic matching method through the Stock Exchange of Thailand's trading system. The move is modeled on the success of TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited, or TTB, in which TCAP holds a 24.37% stake. TTB's share buyback program significantly boosted its return on equity, earnings per share, and dividend payout ratio. In the first half of 2026, TTB posted a return on equity of 9.0% and earnings per share of 0.12 baht, compared with 0.10 baht in the same period a year earlier. As for TCAP's financial position as of 31 March 2026, it had unappropriated retained earnings of 71.724 billion baht, liquid assets of 9.079 billion baht, and liabilities due within six months of 2.33 billion baht. Analysts at Dao Securities assess that the buyback will support the share price and limit downside, raising their target price to 82 baht from 68 baht, and expect TCAP to pay a 2026 dividend of 3.60 baht per share, implying a dividend yield of about 5%. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities has the highest target price at 85 baht. Following the announcement, TCAP's share price surged, hitting an intraday high of 79.00 baht before closing at 78.25 baht, up 7 baht or 9.82%, on turnover exceeding 1.844 billion baht.

The SET index closed on 31 July up 25.53 points at 1,623.64 points, with turnover of 89.032 billion baht. Buying came from foreign investors at 3.516 billion baht, funds at 2.037 billion baht, and broker portfolios at 493 million baht, while retail investors were net sellers of 6.046 billion baht. DELTA and electronics stocks such as HANA, KCE, and CCET were key drivers that pushed the index to close above 1,600 points. Meanwhile, THAI, which exits its trading suspension on 4 August, has up to 19 billion shares eligible for sale. An estimated 8 billion shares could be sold in the first minute by retail investors, funds, and insurance companies, while cooperatives and commercial banks that converted debt to equity at a cost of 2.50 baht are still weighing their decisions. TCAP closed at 78.75 baht, up 7 baht or 9.82%, hitting a 30-year high after the board approved a 7.5 billion baht share buyback programme between 17 August and 16 February 2026.