US Midwest hot-rolled coil steel futures (CME, USD). Counterpart to HRC_CN (Shanghai SHFE, RMB).
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Industry Minister to propose Cabinet elevate four coated steel sheet standards to controlled goods
The Ministry of Industry is preparing to propose to the Cabinet that four coated steel sheet standards be elevated from voluntary standards to controlled goods, in order to block cheap, low-quality imported steel and address dumping that affects Thai producers. The measures are expected to take effect by early 2027. Mr. Warawut Silpa-archa, Minister of Industry, said the four standards are TIS 2131-2567 for pre-painted hot-dip galvanized steel, or PPGI; TIS 2753-2567 for pre-painted hot-dip 55 percent aluminium-zinc alloy-coated steel, or PPGL; TIS 2981-2567 for ZAM steel; and TIS 3059-2567 for zinc-aluminium-magnesium alloy-coated steel. They will apply to both imported and domestically produced goods, which must pass strict quality tests such as salt spray resistance of up to 2,000 hours, paint strength and adhesion, impact resistance, solar reflectance, as well as tensile strength and yield stress. Operators with existing licences can switch immediately from a Form 2 licence to a Form 4 licence without factory inspection or new sampling, to reduce burdens and avoid affecting those already complying with the standards. Mr. Warawut insisted this is not blocking imports, but creating the same rules so that all parties compete on quality.
Yuanta Securities says HPG jumps on steel recovery, 46% upside
Yuanta Securities stated that HPG, one of the largest steel producers in Southeast Asia, is benefiting from reduced Chinese steel supply following the Anti-Involution policy, while hot-rolled coil prices in Vietnam have begun to rebound, creating positive sentiment and short-term speculative interest. Profit in 2026 is expected to grow 60% year on year, according to Bloomberg Consensus, driven by the opening of the Dung Quat 2 plant and a full year of capacity recognition, lifting steel production capacity by 40% from the previous year. The current price trades at a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of only 7.9 times, with Bloomberg Consensus giving a target price of 4.08 baht per DR, implying 46% upside.
Watch for the new TIS steel standard hearing on 17 August; Prawit champions a single standard
Mr Prawit Horrungruang, a director of the Standard Long Steel Association, said that on 17 August there will be a public hearing on the new draft steel standard of the Thai Industrial Standards Institute, or TISI. He stressed that revising the standard is not about blocking operators, but about creating a single standard to raise the country's long-term competitiveness. He also pointed out that the key issue for induction furnace, or IF, smelting plants should not be which country the technology comes from, but the ability to control quality, product consistency, and safety, especially for steel used in building structures and infrastructure that affect people's lives. Mr Prawit also cited lessons from the steel crisis during the 1997 IMF period, saying Thailand should not let history repeat itself, and that raising the standard for IF steel is a major challenge for the Thai steel industry. A good standard, he said, must give the public confidence that every bar of steel leaving a factory comes from a reliable production and quality-control system, not just from a few samples that pass testing.
JFE Targets Growth Markets in the U.S. and India, Differentiating with High-Grade Steel
JFE Holdings is focusing its steel business on the United States and India. In the U.S., it operates two joint ventures with Nucor, the largest electric arc furnace steelmaker, and President Yoshihisa Kitano highlighted high-grade steel categories such as electrical steel sheets and automotive steel sheets as key areas. In India, JFE invested 270 billion yen in a subsidiary of JSW Steel, fully participating in the operation of a steel plant with an annual crude steel production capacity of 4.5 million tons, and is eyeing expansion to 10 million tons by 2030 and further to 15 million tons. India's per capita steel consumption is around 100 kilograms per year, and President Kitano sees future motorization and electrification as the keys to growth.
US and Mexico Schedule Fourth Round of USMCA Talks for Early September
The United States and Mexico are set to hold a fourth round of negotiations to review and update the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, in early September. This follows the third round of talks this week, which made progress on some issues, but both sides still have differences on key points that could prolong negotiations into next year. The latest round took place between US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard. Ebrard said the discussions were constructive and advanced on steel and aluminum trade, as well as approaches to reduce reliance on imports from Asia. One unresolved issue is the US proposal that cars qualifying for tariff preferences under USMCA must have at least 50 percent of parts made in the United States, which Mexico firmly rejects. Meanwhile, Mexico is calling on the US to ease national security tariff measures under Section 232, which currently impose a 25 percent tariff on auto imports from Mexico and Canada, and a 50 percent tariff on steel and aluminum.
Wellington-Altus strategist says U.S. capitalism shifting from buybacks to real economy
James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus, argued that the center of gravity in U.S. capitalism is shifting from financial engineering back to the real economy. He said the post-2008 playbook of low capex and high buybacks is colliding with a new reality built around reshoring, energy security, supply-chain resilience and AI infrastructure. Thorne pointed to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s view that every nation should control the essentials of national supply, emphasizing resilience over autarky. The investment implication is that capital is moving into physical capacity such as concrete, steel, copper, power, logistics and machinery, rather than pure balance-sheet engineering. Thorne warned that investors clinging to the low-capex, high-buyback model are betting on a shrinking productive base, and the better opportunity lies in companies and sectors building the real economy.
VanEck Steel ETF Hits 52-Week High on AI Infrastructure Demand
The VanEck Steel ETF reached a new 52-week high earlier this month, driven by surging demand for steel in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The fund returned an average of 47.2% annually in 2025 and attracted $81.41 million in inflows over the past year, pushing assets under management above $203 million. AI data centers require heavy structural steel for server racks, reinforced flooring, and cooling systems, with 831 data center projects under construction globally as of March 2026. Despite a 0.3% year-over-year drop in global crude steel production in May 2026 and projected excess capacity of 745 million tons by 2028, the fund's top holdings like Nucor and Steel Dynamics operate modern electric arc furnaces that can adjust output while commanding premium prices for AI-grade steel. Near-term quantitative models assign a 65% probability of SLX outperforming the broader ETF universe, though risks include easing trade tariffs or a slowdown in AI capital spending.