Copper Futures

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed at a record high on Tuesday and continued to rise on Wednesday amid tight supply, with prices up about 16% since the start of the year. This is due to traders shipping large amounts of copper to the United States, reducing stocks in other markets, while global mines are not producing enough to meet demand. Most recently, copper prices rose 0.5% to $14,415.50 per ton, near the all-time high of $14,527.50 per ton set in January. Although the spread between spot and futures copper has narrowed from over $500 per ton, it remains at about $156 per ton, indicating that supply pressures have not yet subsided.

COMEX copper futures for December delivery closed up 10.85 cents, or 1.62%, at $6.8155 per pound on Tuesday (Aug. 25), amid concerns that the U.S. may impose import tariffs on copper, prompting traders to rush shipments into the U.S. and drawing supply away from other markets, tightening stocks outside the U.S. Meanwhile, withdrawal orders from LME warehouses added to global supply worries. The U.S. is considering tariffs on copper imports, with Trump to decide after receiving a report from the Commerce Department. If imposed, the tariff would start at 15% in 2027 and rise to 30% in 2028.

Copper prices are rising again as the International Copper Study Group reports a significant June deficit and a sharply reduced year-to-date surplus. Commerzbank's Barbara Lambrecht notes the supply setbacks have pushed the market into deficit. The data indicate a tightening in global copper balances.

The Export-Import Bank of the US has issued a preliminary project letter outlining possible debt financing of $1.1 billion to advance Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz Copper Project in Arizona. The letter increases the proposed financing from the $825 million outlined in US EXIM's previous letter of interest issued in April 2025. Ivanhoe Electric submitted its application through US EXIM's Make More in America Initiative, and the preliminary project letter is not a commitment to finance, with any funding subject to further review and final approval. The company expects US EXIM's board to consider the financing application in the spring of 2027, and an updated preliminary feasibility study for the project is expected in September 2026. Ivanhoe Electric executive chairman Robert Friedland said the company is building a modern American copper mine capable of producing 99.99% pure copper metal without a smelting process.

Societe Generale's Commodity Compass Analytics team, led by Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem, argues that copper has been increasingly driven by AI-related demand, arbitrage flows and US trade policy since February 2025.

New York copper futures closed higher on Friday, August 21, supported by a weaker dollar and tight supply prospects. COMEX copper for September delivery rose 11.80 cents, or 1.82%, to settle at 6.5870 dollars per pound. The dollar index fell to 98.801 amid concerns that the U.S. Treasury's long-term bond buyback plan could pressure the dollar. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, expects output to fall 2.6% this year, while the Las Bambas mine in Peru operated by MMG suspended operations after an accident killed two workers, and Canada's Lundin Mining Corp cut its production target at the Caserones mine in Chile by 10,000 metric tons due to storms.

Poland has announced a new economic strategy called Poland Economy 2.0 to move up from a cheap-labour base to a high-value-added economy, after GDP surpassed 1 trillion dollars and the country was invited to join the G20 summit later this year. The government wants to attract foreign direct investment in advanced technology industries including AI, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and critical metals such as copper. A key project reflecting this strategy is the plan by Lumina Metals, a Canadian metals company, to invest 6.4 billion dollars to develop a copper and silver mine in the town of Nowa Sól, which could become the largest FDI project in Poland's history and is expected to create 6,000 direct jobs in a town of only 36,000 people. Meanwhile, a Taiwanese company is considering developing a Technology Park on the site where Intel had planned to build a 4.6 billion dollar semiconductor plant before cancelling the project, and the new project could be worth as much as 20 billion dollars. Foxconn, the major Taiwanese electronics manufacturer, plans to produce electric vehicles in the southern Polish city of Jaworzno under a preliminary agreement under which Poland would receive knowledge and technology transfer. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański said the quality of investment matters more than its value, and a senior adviser at the Polish Economic Institute called this type of investment Poland 2.0 Investment, which would help the country escape its role as an assembly-plant base and build its own technological capabilities. However, Lumina's mining project still needs a mining licence, which could take about five years, and the company wants the government to cut copper taxes to make the project economically viable, while the Polish government is facing a record budget deficit.

BHP and SiTration, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology spin-out, are planning two pilot programmes of copper recovery technology at BHP's site in the Globe-Miami district of Arizona. The initial phase will be a small-scale trial running over one month, followed later this year by a larger deployment expected to produce up to two tonnes of commercial-scale copper cathodes over two months. The companies aim to extract copper from legacy mining water at the historic Copper Cities site, which produced nearly 400,000 tonnes of copper between the 1950s and early 1980s. SiTration has already conducted bench-scale tests on feedstock from Copper Cities that reportedly produced LME Grade A copper without chemicals, without new waste products, and with energy consumption below 3–4 kilowatt-hours per kilogram. Both companies have signed an agreement to collaborate on the pilot programme and evaluate future opportunities if results are positive.

The copper supply tightness continues to solidify, with LME inventories falling for 42 consecutive trading days and spot premiums breaking above 400 dollars per tonne. On the supply side, the export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chile's output hitting a near 20-year low for the same period, global miners collectively lowering production guidance, and a consensus on production cuts amid deeply negative domestic treatment and refining charges are all reinforcing the global supply squeeze. On the inventory side, deliverable supply outside the United States remains tight. The market expects the global refined copper supply deficit could reach 420,000 tonnes in 2026. Long mine expansion cycles and high capital investment, combined with sustained electrification demand, mean supply response is slower than demand growth, pushing the copper price center higher. On August 19, China's A-share major indices fell across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45 percent, the Shenzhen Component Index down 4.88 percent, and the ChiNext Index down 6.09 percent. The CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index, tracked by the ChinaAMC Nonferrous Metals ETF with code 516650, fell 3.16 percent.

Copper prices on the LME are close to record highs, with an unusually large cash–3-month spread driven by falling LME stocks and tariff-related pre-emptive buying in the US, according to Commerzbank's Barbara Lambrecht.

BHP delivered sharply higher full-year earnings as rising copper prices and improved operational performance boosted margins, while the mining giant outlined plans to direct billions of dollars toward expanding its copper business over the coming decade. Underlying EBITDA rose 27% to $32.9 billion for the year ended June 30, from $26.0 billion a year earlier, while underlying attributable profit climbed 30% to $13.2 billion. The company declared $8.7 billion of dividends for the year, equivalent to 172 U.S. cents per share, including a final dividend of 99 cents per share. Copper has now become the center of gravity of BHP's portfolio, with the segment accounting for 54% of group EBITDA in fiscal 2026 and delivering an EBITDA margin of 70%, compared with 61% for iron ore. BHP expects copper demand to rise from around 34 million tons per year currently to more than 50 million tons by 2050, and sees the potential for a copper supply deficit of as much as roughly 10 million tons annually during the next decade. The company approved about $500 million of pre-commitment funding for a new concentrator at Chile's Escondida mine, a project estimated to require $5.4 billion to $6.3 billion of capital and produce 230,000-270,000 tons of copper annually, with a final investment decision targeted for 2027-2028 and first production expected in 2031-2032. BHP plans to spend roughly $11 billion annually on capital projects over the medium term, including about $4 billion per year on growth, with more than 55% of growth spending expected to target copper.

Copper's sharpest supply squeeze since 2021 is raising infrastructure costs for Bitcoin miners and AI data centers. The London Metal Exchange's cash copper contract traded as much as $478 per ton above the three-month contract on Monday, the widest backwardation since 2021, while LME inventories fell for a 42nd consecutive day to 204,975 tons with almost half already earmarked for removal. Jefferies expects a 442,000-ton copper deficit in 2026, widening to 782,000 tons by 2030, and forecasts average prices of $13,380 per ton in 2026 rising to $17,637 by 2030. Higher copper costs could increase capital expenses for Bitcoin mining facilities requiring transformers, substations, and cabling, and intensify competition with AI data centers for grid connections and electrical equipment.

Freeport-McMoRan is emerging as the standout among copper stocks as an AI-fueled supply squeeze grips the copper market. The largest US copper miner trades near $66.50 after a sharp year-to-date run, with a bullish continuation pattern pointing toward $87 and a Strong Buy consensus from Wall Street. Copper hit an all-time high on COMEX on August 12, while the London Metal Exchange front-month spread blew out to a $370-a-ton premium, the widest since 2021, with inventories down for 42 straight days. A single one-gigawatt AI data center needs roughly 50,000 tonnes of copper, and data centers alone are projected to add hundreds of thousands of tonnes of fresh demand a year. Freeport's first-half net income rose 65% year over year, and analysts including Barclays and Stifel have lifted price targets, with an average 12-month target of $75.33.

The Export-Import Bank of Korea is set to provide a $1 billion loan to Glencore, the commodities giant, in exchange for copper supplies to South Korean companies amid surging demand driven by the artificial intelligence boom. South Korea's state-run Eximbank said today it will allocate the loan to Glencore International AG, a wholly owned Swiss-based subsidiary of Glencore, with the funds to be used for general corporate purposes. Glencore has agreed to deliver copper to South Korean companies throughout the loan period. Glencore has not yet commented. South Korea relies on imports of copper, a key metal used in power grids, data centers, and renewable energy equipment. The growth of AI data centers and rising electricity demand have pushed copper demand higher, lifting copper prices by about 15% this year and bringing them close to record highs.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange climbed for a seventh straight week and are heading toward a record high, with the spread between spot copper and three-month delivery contracts surging to 478 dollars per tonne, the widest since the major squeeze in 2021, reflecting intensifying competition for near-term supply. Three-month copper rose 1.2 percent to 14,331 dollars per tonne, near the intraday high of 14,527.50 dollars per tonne set in late January. Copper has gained more than 15 percent this year as large inflows of metal into the United States, driven by expectations around the Trump administration's tariff decisions, have left other markets with less metal. Meanwhile, copper inventories tracked by the LME have fallen to just over 200,000 tonnes, the lowest level since February.

Furukawa Co. announced on the 13th that it has revised its consolidated net profit forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 upward to 14.5 billion yen, up 13.5% from the previous year, compared with the previous forecast of 5.1 billion yen. The revision reflects solid first-quarter sales from April to June, and the company also booked a gain on sale of fixed assets of about 6 billion yen as extraordinary income following the completion of the transfer of a former smelter site in Australia held by a subsidiary. Net profit for the April-June quarter rose 68.2% year on year to 4 billion yen. In the metals business, in addition to the weaker yen, higher copper prices contributed, driven by supply concerns after China halted sulfuric acid exports and the possibility of U.S. tariffs on refined copper. The chemicals business posted higher revenue on increased demand for package substrates for artificial intelligence.

McEwen Mining reported second-quarter operational shortfalls driven by lower production and elevated costs at its Gold Bar mine, where unexpected carbonaceous ore caused preg-robbing and reduced recoveries. Management is revising geological models, mining sequences, blending strategies, and processing methods to improve recoveries over time, while Gold Bar expansion permitting is expected to take about two more years. The company is advancing the Los Azules copper project toward a final investment decision in the fourth quarter, evaluating approximately $4 billion in financing with a potential 60% debt and 40% equity structure, and targeting an IPO later this year to help fund an estimated $1.6 billion equity requirement. Separately, the San José joint venture is not expected to pay another dividend this year, with distributions currently anticipated to resume next year.

President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. government is preparing to invest three billion dollars in critical mining projects to reduce dependence on supply chains dominated by China. One key project is a 1.4-billion-dollar loan agreement with Sila Nanotechnologies from the Office of Strategic Capital under the U.S. Department of Defense, aimed at expanding production of silicon anodes for batteries and lithium-ion battery cells. The Department of Defense is also set to invest 400 million dollars in Sunrise Energy Metals to expand scandium production in Australia, and another 150 million dollars in Niron Magnetics, a magnet manufacturer based in Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Export-Import Bank of the United States is working to secure over one billion dollars in financing for Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper mine in Arizona, along with a 25-million-dollar investment to kick-start a graphite mine in Alabama. The U.S. government also plans to spend more than 180 million dollars to support educational programs for the mining industry, with the goal of training a new generation of American mine workers. Trump stated that these efforts will help the United States avoid relying on hostile foreign nations for the resources needed to build the country's strength in the future.

Copper has surged back near record highs as traders accelerate shipments into the US ahead of potential import tariffs, tightening physical markets and draining LME inventories, according to ING Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey. The strategist highlights that the tariff-driven rush is creating tightness in the physical market while drawing down London Metal Exchange stockpiles.

Copper is trading comfortably above $14,000 per tonne, close to record highs, supported by tariff-related stockpiling into the US and tight physical markets elsewhere, according to ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey. They flag low inventories, constrained mine supply and ongoing disruptions as key supports.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange surged and are on track to close at an all-time high, rising 0.6% to $14,193.50 per tonne, surpassing the previous record close from mid-May. Since the start of 2026, copper prices have jumped about 14% and are heading for a sixth consecutive weekly gain, the longest such streak since 2020. The rally is supported by tight global supply after massive volumes of copper were shipped to the US ahead of clarity on President Donald Trump's import tariffs, while increased buying from China has intensified competition for supply. Demand from data centers and power grid investment remains robust. The spread between cash copper and three-month futures has surged more than $150 per tonne, reflecting severe supply tightness.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has issued an administrative order banning the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, triggering a sharp rally in cobalt mining stocks. Huayou Cobalt responded that its products in the DRC are crude cobalt hydroxide and electrowon copper, and it does not export concentrates, adding that the situation is similar for other Chinese companies. Tianfeng Securities noted that in the short term, cobalt raw material supply is tight but not scarce, and cobalt prices are fluctuating with a weak bias. CITIC Securities believes the ban has limited impact on Chinese copper companies, but could intensify concerns over copper supply tightness and push LME copper prices to accelerate toward fifteen thousand dollars per tonne and above.

Copper surged to a record high Thursday, with U.S. futures touching around $6.90 a pound before retreating. The rally reflects constrained supply, heavy grid investment, and rising electrification demand rather than broad economic growth. Supply disruptions in Chile and a new export ban on copper and cobalt concentrates from the Democratic Republic of Congo have tightened availability. China's grid investment rose 13% year over year in the first half, and the country plans to invest approximately $574 billion in power grid upgrades. Analysts note that data center and power grid demand for AI expansion is a key driver, while potential U.S. Section 232 tariffs and China's scrap copper crackdown further strain global supplies.

New York copper futures closed higher on Wednesday, with the COMEX copper contract for September delivery rising 8.40 cents, or 1.26%, to settle at 6.7275 dollars per pound, supported by tight global supply. Traders are rushing to ship copper to the United States and draw down inventories in other regions ahead of the Trump administration's decision on import tariffs. Copper arrivals at US ports in July exceeded 200,000 tonnes, the highest monthly import volume in over a decade. Meanwhile, copper stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouse networks have fallen to a five-month low due to accelerated exports to China to ease domestic supply shortages. Prices also drew support from a strong long-term demand outlook, driven by the global clean energy transition and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers.

FireFly Metals has announced another batch of high-grade drilling results from its Green Bay Copper-Gold Project in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, which will feed into an imminent mineral resource update and economic studies. The latest underground infill drilling returned exceptional intersections from the upper volcanogenic massive sulphide zones, including 11.5 metres at 13.2% copper equivalent, 18.9 metres at 8.2% copper equivalent, and 13.5 metres at 11.1% copper equivalent. Drilling of the high-grade Core Zone, which currently hosts 8.8 million tonnes at 3.9% copper equivalent in the measured and indicated categories and an additional 10.9 million tonnes at 3.8% copper equivalent inferred, delivered 65.3 metres at 4.3% copper equivalent. The company said the results demonstrate strong continuity and will support conversion of inferred resources to higher-confidence measured and indicated categories, with the upcoming preliminary economic assessment targeting at least 70% measured and indicated material in the mine plan. FireFly remains well funded with approximately A$196.4 million in cash and liquid investments as at 30 June 2026, and six underground rigs continue to operate at the Ming Mine while three surface rigs test regional targets.

New York copper futures edged lower on Friday, after prices jumped nearly 2.6 percent on Thursday on hopes for strong copper demand. COMEX copper for September delivery fell 0.90 cents, or 0.14 percent, to settle at 6.4655 dollars per pound. The slight decline came after the Federal Reserve voted to hold short-term interest rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent at its meeting on Wednesday, marking the fifth consecutive hold and easing investor concerns about borrowing costs. In addition, the US personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.7 percent in June from a year earlier, slowing from 4.1 percent in May. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.3 percent, down from 3.4 percent in May. Investors also expect copper prices to be supported by a strong long-term demand outlook, driven by the global transition to clean energy and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers, which will underpin future copper demand.

Buenaventura Mining reported second-quarter revenue rose 43% year over year to $529 million, while net income surged 165% to $261 million. Gold production increased 12% to 30,500 ounces, silver production rose 2% to 3.6 million ounces, and copper production grew 2% to 13,500 tons, supported by favorable metal prices and improved operations. The San Gabriel project produced its first 2,800 ounces of gold and began commercial sales, though tailings-filtration issues and low recoveries may require $20 million to $25 million in additional investment, with management targeting stable operations by mid-2027. Yumpag received approval to increase throughput to 1,200 tons per day, which could lift production by about 10% and reduce operating costs by 15% to 17% by year-end. The company also expects $350 million to $380 million in 2026 dividends from its Cerro Verde investment.

COMEX copper futures for September delivery closed up 2.58 percent at 6.4745 dollars per pound, after investors welcomed the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady, even though three committee members dissented and favored a rate hike. The Fed chair stressed that holding rates does not signal a slowdown in monetary policy. The market is also watching China's Politburo meeting this week, which is expected to focus on pushing existing fiscal measures rather than announcing major new stimulus. Copper prices also drew support from long-term demand prospects tied to the clean energy transition and the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers.

On overseas commodity futures markets, the most active NYMEX crude oil contract settled at 83.59 dollars a barrel, down 0.87 dollars from the previous day. Meanwhile, the most active COMEX gold contract surged 124.30 dollars to 4,160.60 dollars, a sharp gain of 3.08 percent. The three-month LME copper contract finished 33.50 dollars higher at 13,768.50 dollars, and three-month LME aluminum ended 20.00 dollars higher at 3,198.25 dollars.

Nuode Shares disclosed its half-year report, showing first-half operating revenue of 6.433 billion yuan, up 113.33 percent year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 103 million yuan, compared with a loss of 72.4329 million yuan in the same period last year, swinging to profit. Basic earnings per share were 0.0598 yuan. The company said the supply-demand pattern in the lithium battery copper foil industry has completely reversed, with low-end backward capacity continuously eliminated and new capacity additions slowing down. Coupled with the release of demand from both power batteries and energy storage, copper foil processing fees have bottomed out and rebounded. Relying on its differentiated product layout of ultra-thin lithium battery copper foil and high-end electronic copper foil, the company's overall profitability has improved significantly both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.

Ivanhoe Mines reported a second-quarter 2026 profit of $46 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $179 million, driven by a $152 million attributable EBITDA contribution from the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex. The company tightened Kamoa-Kakula's full-year production guidance to between 290,000 and 310,000 tonnes of copper, narrowing the upper end from 330,000 tonnes, while Kipushi achieved a record 70,177 tonnes of zinc output at a cash cost of $0.90 per pound. Kamoa-Kakula's smelter operating costs were largely offset by high-strength sulphuric acid sales, with third-quarter contract prices surging over 100% year-on-year to approximately $840 per tonne. Ivanhoe also advanced its 2027 Kamoa-Kakula life-of-mine plan, commissioned Platreef's Shaft #3, and expects a significant Western Forelands mineral resource update in September.

Sandfire Resources America has filed an independent Preliminary Feasibility Study for its Black Butte Copper Project. The technical report, dated July 28, 2026, covers the Johnny Lee and Lowry deposits and was prepared by a team including Deepak Malhotra of DM Consulting and Berkley Tracy of SRK Consulting. The study is available on the company's website and on SEDAR+.

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say copper has extended its July gains as easing Middle East tensions lift sentiment. They point to tight physical conditions, low inventories and firm Chinese import demand as key supports.

New York copper futures closed higher on Friday after US economic data came in stronger than expected. The preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing and services in July surged to an eight-month high of 53.6, and new home sales in June rose 1.6% to 628,000 units, above analysts' forecast of 609,000 units. COMEX copper for September delivery gained 1.40 cents, or 0.22%, to settle at $6.3575 per pound.