Chicago SRW Wheat Futures

Grain futures closed higher across the board at the CBOT on Wednesday (Aug. 26), led by wheat which surged to its daily trading limit and hit a multi-year high, following reports that Russia is preparing to escalate missile strikes on Kyiv, underscoring the risk of disruption to Black Sea grain exports. Corn and soybeans also rallied to contract highs across all delivery months, supported by wheat's strength. December wheat rose 45.00 cents, or 6.40%, to close at $7.4825 per bushel; December corn rose 13.00 cents, or 2.48%, to close at $5.3650 per bushel; and November soybeans rose 28.25 cents, or 2.28%, to close at $12.6600 per bushel. The surge in wheat was attributed to a Bloomberg report citing sources close to the Kremlin that Russia is considering increasing missile attacks on central Kyiv and key infrastructure across Ukraine, as it assesses that peace negotiations have failed and reached a dead end. Meanwhile, grain loading at Black Sea ports in both countries has nearly come to a complete halt, creating uncertainty over global supplies of wheat from Russia and corn from Ukraine. Corn also drew support from field surveys in the Midwest indicating that this year's yields will be significantly lower than USDA estimates. Soybeans closed strongly higher on continued buying from China, a recovery in crude oil prices, and the U.S. Treasury's announcement of sanctions on 60 individuals, entities, and vessels linked to trade with Iran, though Chinese financial institutions were not included on the list.

India has lifted its four-year ban on exports of wheat and wheat products. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued an official notification that wheat export policy has been changed from prohibited to free with immediate effect. The central government said the country currently has sufficient wheat reserves, and the move is part of efforts to encourage farmers to grow more wheat in the coming years. Official data show India produced nearly 120.65 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 crop year, up about 2.3 percent from the previous year. Sanjeev Chopra, Secretary of the Department of Food and Public Distribution, said that because domestic wheat prices are currently low, allowing exports will help push domestic prices higher, increase farmers' incomes, and encourage farmers to expand planting in the coming season.

Corn and wheat contracts on the CBOT closed higher on Thursday, August 20, while soybean contracts closed lower. December corn rose 5.50 cents, or 1.10%, to settle at 5.0350 dollars per bushel, after the Pro Farmer crop tour in the Midwest found that corn yields in Illinois were likely to come in below expectations. December wheat rose 2.50 cents, or 0.36%, to settle at 7.0000 dollars per bushel, as export restrictions on wheat from Russia and Ukraine led the market to expect that importing countries may have to turn to other, higher-priced sources. Wheat importers around the world are bracing for tighter supply after tit-for-tat attacks between Russia and Ukraine on ports and cargo ships in recent weeks forced several grain terminals to shut down and caused shippers to postpone or cancel dozens of cargoes during the peak export season. November soybeans fell 0.75 cents, or 0.06%, to settle at 12.3650 dollars per bushel, pressured by prospects for good US yields, weak old-crop export sales, and the likelihood of higher soybean production from Brazil.

Global wheat prices have jumped more than 17% since the start of July after attacks on grain infrastructure in the Black Sea between Russia and Ukraine disrupted shipments. Chicago wheat futures have climbed, driven mainly by reduced wheat supply from the Black Sea region, while physical wheat prices from rival exporters such as Argentina, Australia and the United States have also risen. Asian grain processors have contracted around 2.0 to 2.5 million tonnes of Black Sea wheat for delivery from July to September, accounting for roughly 30 to 50% of their import needs, but concerns are growing that many shipments may not arrive on time. Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, sourced more than 82% of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine combined in the first half of 2026. Indonesia, the world's second-largest importer, has contracted around 600,000 tonnes of wheat from former Soviet Union exporting countries for delivery from July to September. Turning to other suppliers is far more costly, with Australian Premium White wheat offered at around 315 to 320 dollars per tonne including freight to Asia, while the cheapest US wheat is around 305 dollars per tonne, compared with Black Sea wheat mostly at about 260 to 280 dollars per tonne.

CBOT wheat futures closed up more than 3% on Friday, as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war raised concerns that global wheat supply will shrink. September wheat rose 22 cents, or 3.37%, to settle at 6.7475 dollars per bushel. December corn gained 11.25 cents, or 2.38%, to 4.8325 dollars per bushel, while November soybeans added 10.25 cents, or 0.86%, to 11.9250 dollars per bushel. Analysts at Blue Line Futures said traders are building a larger risk premium into wheat prices because Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, and most of those shipments move through Black Sea ports. The US Department of Agriculture also lowered its forecast for US wheat production in the WASDE report. Soybean futures were supported by news that China bought an additional 136,000 metric tons of US soybeans, and by oil prices rising more than 1% after reports of an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Wheat futures rallied sharply on Friday after Russia rejected a Ukrainian proposal for a ceasefire covering civilian vessels and port infrastructure in the Black Sea region. Chicago SRW contracts rose 11 3/4 to 22 cents, with a weekly gain of 35 cents, while KC HRW futures led the advance with gains of 15 to 33 cents and September up 40 1/4 cents on the week. MPLS spring wheat closed 9 to 10 3/4 cents higher, though September was 1 1/4 cents lower for the week. Recent strikes on export infrastructure have limited shipments from key Black Sea ports during the post-harvest period when wheat exports typically ramp up. CFTC data showed managed money added 7,615 contracts to their CBT wheat net short position in the week of August 11, reaching a net short of 31,401 contracts, while in KC wheat they cut 5,432 contracts from their net long to 27,662 contracts. Total wheat sales for 2026/27 stand at 7.538 million metric tons, 36% of the USDA export estimate and below the 44% average pace, and Taiwan flour mills purchased 97,200 metric tons of US wheat in a tender overnight.

Wheat futures rallied sharply across all three U.S. exchanges on Thursday, with Chicago SRW contracts closing 13 ¾ to 22 ½ cents higher, KC HRW up 14 ½ to 21 ¾ cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat up 13 to 15 ¼ cents. The gains followed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk port that halted operations at the country’s largest port, and Russia’s retaliatory strike on a vessel in Ukraine’s Odesa port. USDA data showed 2026 wheat production at 1.531 billion bushels, down 5 million from July, and 2026/27 ending stocks at 717 million bushels, also down 5 million. World ending stocks were raised by 0.41 million metric tons to 273.25 million metric tons, with increases for Canada and Ukraine offsetting a cut for the EU.

Corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade surged to their highest level in two weeks on Wednesday, August 12, while soybean and wheat contracts also rose after the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for corn ending stocks for the 2026-2027 season to 1.653 billion bushels from 1.790 billion bushels, and cut its soybean yield estimate to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53.0 bushels per acre. December corn futures rose 20.25 cents, or 4.40 percent, to settle at 4.8075 dollars per bushel. September wheat futures gained 22.50 cents, or 3.57 percent, to close at 6.5275 dollars per bushel, and November soybean futures advanced 14.50 cents, or 1.24 percent, to settle at 11.8325 dollars per bushel. The market also drew support from supply disruption concerns after Ukraine sent drones to attack the port of Novorossiysk, Russia's main wheat export port on the Black Sea, forcing the two largest grain transshipment terminals to temporarily suspend operations.

Global food prices rose in July to their highest level in more than three years, amid concerns over production volumes and key grain export routes. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that its world food price index increased 0.6 percent from the previous month, reaching the highest since January 2023, driven mainly by higher prices for cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils. A major risk stems from the Black Sea region after attacks between Russia and Ukraine intensified, raising concerns over grain exports and helping push wheat prices to a two-year high in June. Meanwhile, Europe is facing one of its most severe drops in grain production on record due to extreme heat, and key growing areas in the United States are experiencing drought, increasing risks to corn and soybean output. Food price risks could rise further in the near term due to the prospect of an unusually strong El Niño, coupled with fertilizer supply issues and still-high energy costs.

Wheat futures are trading higher across most contracts at Wednesday's midday, with Chicago SRW up 8 cents, Kansas City HRW front months up 12 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat up 4 to 5 cents. The gains come amid heightened concerns over Black Sea export flows as the Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated attacks on vessels and ports in recent weeks. Algeria purchased an estimated 300,000 to 720,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender on Wednesday, providing additional support. December CBOT wheat reached $6.65 1/4, December KCBT wheat hit $7.36 1/2, and December MIAX wheat traded at $7.13 1/2.

CBOT grain futures closed higher across the board on Monday, with September wheat surging 11.75 cents, or 1.84 percent, to settle at 6.5100 dollars per bushel, driven by concerns that escalating fighting between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt exports from the Black Sea region. December corn rose 8.50 cents, or 1.83 percent, to close at 4.7250 dollars per bushel, while November soybeans added 4.75 cents, or 0.40 percent, to end at 11.9225 dollars per bushel, supported by worries over US growing conditions and news of fresh soybean export sales totaling 488,000 metric tons to China and another 136,150 metric tons to unknown destinations. However, falling crude oil prices and rains in parts of the US Midwest pressured corn and soybeans for much of the trading session.

Wheat futures are trading higher across all three U.S. exchanges at midday Thursday, supported by a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian grain export terminal in Taman on the Kerch Strait. Chicago SRW contracts are up 8 to 9 cents, KC HRW futures are 12 to 13 cents higher, and MPLS spring wheat is up 10 to 11 cents in the front months. Weekly export sales data showed 285,165 metric tons of 2026/27 wheat sold in the week of July 23, a marketing year low that was less than half of the same week last year and near the low end of trade expectations. September 2026 CBOT wheat is at $6.69 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents, while December 2026 CBOT wheat is at $6.86 3/4, up 9 cents.

Wheat futures are showing mixed action early Thursday, with winter wheat contracts posting modest gains while spring wheat edges lower. On Wednesday, the wheat complex led a grain rally, with Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures surging 21 to 30½ cents to their highest spot level since August 2023, and Chicago soft red winter wheat climbing 21 to 27¾ cents to the highest front-month continuation since 2024. Minneapolis spring wheat gained 16 to 24¾ cents. Traders await weekly export sales data, with expectations for net 2026/27 sales between 200,000 and 550,000 metric tons. Russia has paused nighttime shipments from the major export hub of Novorossiysk due to recent Ukrainian drone strikes. The annual spring wheat tour showed a yield of 48.1 bushels per acre for north-central and northwest North Dakota, 1.9 bushels above last year.

Wheat futures on the CBOT surged to their highest level in two years after another attack on grain export ports in the Black Sea. September wheat futures rose 27.75 cents, or 4.09 percent, to settle at 7.0575 dollars per bushel. December corn futures gained 9.50 cents, or 2.00 percent, to close at 4.8475 dollars per bushel, while November soybean futures added 16.25 cents, or 1.33 percent, to end at 12.3900 dollars per bushel. Analysts at ADM Investor Services noted that wheat prices were supported by war and weather risk factors. Russia's Defense Ministry stated that Russian forces attacked port and military infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region, a hub handling more than 90 percent of Russia's grain and vegetable oil shipments. Additionally, a crop survey in North Dakota projected hard red spring wheat yields in the southern area at 46.0 bushels per acre, down 8 percent from last year and only slightly above the five-year average. Meanwhile, hot weather expected to return to western U.S. growing areas and the Great Plains poses a risk to corn and soybean production. Higher crude oil prices also lent support to the soybean and corn markets through demand for biofuel feedstocks, amid Middle East tensions affecting key global energy shipping routes.

Wheat futures are posting modest gains of 2 to 5 cents in early Monday trading, building on last week's strong rally driven by escalating Black Sea conflict that has disrupted exports through strikes on ports and vessels. Chicago SRW contracts closed Friday 4 ¾ to 9 ½ cents higher, with September up 42 ½ cents for the week, while KC HRW futures surged 10 ½ to 15 ¾ cents on the day and September gained 56 cents on the week. MPLS spring wheat rose 6 ½ to 11 ½ cents on Friday, with September rallying 39 ¼ cents. Managed money sharply reduced their net short in CBT wheat futures and options by 25,527 contracts to 36,798 contracts in the week ending July 14, and added 5,730 contracts to their net long in KC wheat, reaching 17,494 contracts. The USDA reported 2026/27 wheat sales at 2.057 million metric tons as of July 9, representing 10% of the export projection and ahead of the five-year average pace of 9%. In France, the AgriMer rated 65% of the wheat crop as good to excellent, with harvest 92% complete, while Argus estimated the French wheat crop at 30.8 million metric tons, a 7.6% decline from last year.

Wheat futures are rallying through Friday's midday, reversing Thursday's losses. Chicago SRW contracts are up 6 to 7 cents, KC HRW futures are surging 13 to 14 cents, and MPLS spring wheat is gaining 6 to 8 cents in front months. The strength is tied to escalating Black Sea conflict, with strikes moving toward ports and vessels, fueling supply concerns. The USDA's weekly export sales report showed 2026/27 wheat sales at 2.057 million metric tons as of July 9, representing 10% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the five-year average pace of 9%. In France, the AgriMer agency rated the wheat crop at 65% good to excellent, unchanged from the prior week, with harvest 92% complete as of July 13.

Wheat futures surged on Wednesday driven by escalating tensions in the Black Sea region and resulting export concerns. Chicago SRW contracts closed 26 to 32 1/2 cents higher, while KC HRW front months rose 23 3/4 to 42 cents after briefly hitting the 45-cent limit. MPLS spring wheat gained 22 to 27 1/4 cents. The rally followed Russian strikes on port locations in Odesa, Ukraine, in retaliation for recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian tankers, and ongoing restrictions on Russian exports through the Kerch Strait. Taiwan importers purchased 98,150 metric tons of US wheat overnight, and traders await the weekly USDA Export Sales report expected to show wheat sales between 250,000 and 600,000 metric tons for the week of July 9.

Prairie grain will move on the Hudson Bay Railway to the Port of Churchill later this week, marking the first grain movement through the northern corridor since 2020. Beginning Friday July 17, the grain will travel north through Manitoba from The Pas to the Port of Churchill for export, with multiple vessels shipping the grain later this summer to global markets. Arctic Gateway Group, the Indigenous and northern community-owned company that operates the railway and port, said this year’s exports will also include critical minerals, potash, and industrial goods to Nunavut, representing the most diversified mix in the port’s history. The company acknowledged support from the Government of Canada, the Province of Manitoba, and the Province of Saskatchewan in revitalizing the corridor.

U.S. wheat futures rallied after the Department of Agriculture lowered its wheat production forecast, projecting the smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1970. In its monthly WASDE report, the USDA estimated 2026 U.S. wheat output at 1.536 billion bushels, down 7 million bushels from the June forecast. The report also projected corn production at 16 billion bushels and soybean production at 4.48 billion bushels, with ending stocks for 2026 pegged at 1.79 billion bushels for corn, 310 million bushels for soybeans, and 722 million bushels for wheat. Analysts noted additional support for wheat futures from rumors that Russia would close the Azov-Don canal and the Kerch Strait in response to Ukrainian drone strikes, potentially trapping around 20 million tons of Russian wheat exports. CBOT September wheat settled up 3.2% at $6.39 1/4 per bushel, December corn rose 1.8% to $4.60 1/4 per bushel, and November soybeans added 0.7% to $11.89 1/4 per bushel.

U.S. wheat futures posted gains across all three exchanges on Thursday. Chicago soft red winter wheat futures rose 4 to 4 ½ cents, Kansas City hard red winter wheat contracts were up 4 ¼ to 7 ¼ cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat rallied 4 ¼ to 8 cents. Taiwan purchased 78,200 metric tons of U.S. origin wheat in a tender, while the International Grains Council left world wheat production unchanged at 798 million metric tons but trimmed carryout by 1 million metric tons to 266 million metric tons. Export sales data for the week ended October 10 will be released Friday morning, with traders expecting 250,000 to 550,000 metric tons of 2024/25 sales and up to 50,000 metric tons for 2025/26.

Wheat futures are posting strong midday gains on Thursday, leading the broader grain complex. Chicago SRW contracts are up 8 to 11 ½ cents, with July CBOT wheat at $6.11, up 11 ½ cents, and September at $6.18 ¼, up 10 ½ cents. KC HRW futures are 6 to 9 ¼ cents higher, while MPLS spring wheat is up 6 to 7 cents. USDA export sales data showed 313,103 metric tons of wheat sold in the week of July 2, near the low end of trade estimates and down 45.86% from the same week last year. Ahead of Friday’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, a Bloomberg poll expects all wheat production at 1.527 billion bushels, down 17 million from last month, with winter wheat at 1.004 billion bushels and spring wheat at 458 million bushels. Taiwan issued a tender for 98,150 metric tons of US wheat, while Ukraine raised its 2026/27 production estimate by 1 million metric tons to 23 million, Argentina increased its forecast by 0.5 million to 20.5 million, and the EU trimmed its figure by 0.9 million to 128.3 million metric tons.

Wheat futures posted double-digit gains on Monday despite weaker export data, supported by spillover strength from corn and soybeans. Chicago SRW contracts rose 11 3/4 to 15 1/2 cents, KC HRW futures were up 7 1/2 to 12 3/4 cents, and MPLS spring wheat gained 8 1/2 to 11 1/4 cents. The USDA reported 59% of the US winter wheat crop harvested, 8% ahead of normal, with conditions steady at 26% good to excellent. Weekly export inspections showed wheat shipments of just 133,652 metric tons, a 66.38% drop from the prior week and 74.44% below the same week last year. Saudi Arabia purchased 661,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender, while the French wheat crop was rated 68% good to excellent, down 6% from the previous week.

U.S. wheat futures rose sharply after the USDA released reports showing tighter supply. The annual Acreage report revealed total wheat acreage declined 6% year-over-year to 42.7 million acres, below expectations, while the Grain Stocks report showed old crop wheat inventory at 920 million bushels as of June 1, also lower than forecast. CBOT wheat for September delivery jumped 2% to $6.01 per bushel, with corn and soybeans also gaining. Analysts noted the small acreage and struggling winter wheat crop, with only 26% rated good or excellent, create a friendly supply-and-demand setup for wheat.