Sugar No.11 Futures

World sugar prices have recovered to over 17 cents per pound, up from a low of around 13 cents per pound in April 2026, due to tight supply from El Niño drought and India's plan to consider reducing or abolishing its 100% sugar import tax to increase domestic supply. Analysts at Innovest X Securities are positive on sugar stocks, especially KSL, KBS, and KTIS, which will benefit from higher selling prices. Meanwhile, BRR expects cane crushing volume for 2026/27 to increase to 2.5-2.6 million tons from 2.2 million tons last year, and expects the second half of the year to continue growing from the first half, supported by expanding demand and a weaker baht.

KTIS Group reported nine-month results for 2026 with total revenue of 12.55 billion baht, with the ethanol business growing the most as revenue rose 227%. Chief Executive Officer Praphan Siriviriyakul said the company expects support from global raw sugar prices rising to their highest level of the year, which will boost revenue and profitability for the rest of this year and continue into 2027.

Shenwan Hongyuan Research noted that the probability of a super El Niño event has recently risen to 95%, and extreme weather could significantly disrupt global agricultural supply. A strong El Niño will cause drought and lower output in major natural rubber and palm oil producing areas in Southeast Asia, while sugarcane production in India and Thailand will come under pressure, supporting expectations of higher sugar prices. Core blueberry producing regions in Peru and Chile also face output reduction risks, pushing prices higher in the fourth quarter. Historical experience shows that such climate events often reshape the supply and demand landscape for some tropical cash crops through weather premiums, thereby lifting inflation expectations. As of 10:41 a.m. on August 20, 2026, the China National Grain Industry Index tracked by the ChinaAMC Grain ETF was down 2.47%, but the ETF had seen four consecutive days of net capital inflows.

Intercontinental Exchange announced that its global sugar markets hit record open interest of over 2.3 million contracts on August 14, 2026, up 43% year-over-year and surpassing the previous record set in February 2010. The record was driven by ICE Sugar No. 11, the global benchmark for raw cane sugar, with record open interest of 2.2 million contracts, and ICE White Sugar, the benchmark for refined sugar, with record open interest of 188,000 contracts. Matthew Ryan, Senior Director of Soft Commodities at ICE, attributed the surge to shifting supply and demand balances, a strong El Niño forecast through January 2027, and uncertainty around major producing regions. Open interest across ICE's broader agricultural complex is up 46% year-over-year, with cocoa up 65%, cotton up 76%, canola up 68%, and coffee up 8%, while average daily volume across the complex is up 28% year-to-date.

Sugar stocks moved higher across the board this morning, with KTIS up 5.35 percent to 1.97 baht, KSL up 4.21 percent to 1.98 baht, and KBS up 2.40 percent to 6.40 baht, after India prepared to cut its 100 percent sugar import duty to curb record-high domestic prices. Meanwhile, global sugar supply is tight and faces drought risk from El Nino, supporting a higher outlook for world sugar prices. Innovest X Securities is positive on the shares of all three sugar producers.

Buriram Sugar Public Company Limited, or BRR, said global sugar prices are beginning to show signs of recovery, which will support its business direction in the second half of the year. In the second quarter of 2026, the company posted revenue from sales and services of 1.745 billion baht, up 11.54 percent from the same period last year. However, the average selling price of sugar per tonne fell 21.60 percent and the average selling price of molasses fell 26.44 percent, resulting in a net loss of 2.83 million baht for the second quarter of 2026. For the first six months, BRR still recorded a net profit of 238.62 million baht. Chief Executive Officer Anan Tangtrongvechakit said operating results from the power plant business and a higher proportion of refinery products helped support performance. The company will continue to manage costs, expand non-sugar businesses including power plants, alternative energy, fertiliser, and packaging from bagasse, while upgrading the sugar business through its refinery to add value and reduce reliance on sugar revenue alone.

Sugar prices rallied on continued weather-related supply concerns, with October NY world sugar #11 up 2.38% and October London ICE white sugar #5 up 1.99%. Drought and hot weather in Europe are expected to cut EU and UK sugar production to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest in 11 years, according to S&P Global Energy. India's cumulative monsoon rainfall was 12% below normal as of August 13, and Brazil's Center-South June sugar production fell 26.3% year-over-year to 3.903 MMT. Analysts including Covrig Analytics, Green Pool Commodity Specialists, StoneX, and Czarnikow have shifted to projecting global sugar deficits for 2026/27, citing El Niño risks and lower output in major producers.

Sugar prices fell back on long liquidation pressure after the sharp August rally, with October NY world sugar #11 down 0.35 and October London ICE white sugar #5 down 4.10. Before falling back, both contracts posted new 1.25-year nearest-futures highs. The recent rally was sparked by concern about a weather-related decline in global sugar production, with drought and hot weather in Europe set to cut EU and UK sugar production to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to S&P Global Energy. Lower sugar output in Brazil is also bullish after Unica reported Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell 26.3% year-over-year to 3.903 MMT. Since posting a 5.25-month low on July 30, sugar prices have surged on the outlook for tighter future supplies, with Covrig Analytics now expecting a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus, Green Pool Commodity Specialists raising their global 2026/27 sugar deficit to -3.3 MMT from a June estimate of -1.76 MMT, and StoneX raising its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT.

Khon Kaen Sugar, or KSL, expects its cane crush for the 2026/27 production season to rise to 8.5 to 9 million tonnes, up from 8.3 to 8.4 million tonnes in the current season, supported by improved mill efficiency, particularly at the Sa Kaeo plant which has a capacity of around 1 million tonnes. CEO Chalush Chinthammit said the company is beginning to see positive signals from global sugar prices, which have risen to 16 cents per pound with a chance of moving to 17 cents per pound, prompting it to defer some sales to next year. The benefits are expected to clearly boost profits from the fourth quarter of 2026 onwards. Meanwhile, KSL is in talks with new partners in industries that use sugar as a key raw material, such as ice cream and sweetened condensed milk, to extend its business and generate growth from existing resources and by-products.

Global food prices rose in July to their highest level in more than three years, amid concerns over production volumes and key grain export routes. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that its world food price index increased 0.6 percent from the previous month, reaching the highest since January 2023, driven mainly by higher prices for cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils. A major risk stems from the Black Sea region after attacks between Russia and Ukraine intensified, raising concerns over grain exports and helping push wheat prices to a two-year high in June. Meanwhile, Europe is facing one of its most severe drops in grain production on record due to extreme heat, and key growing areas in the United States are experiencing drought, increasing risks to corn and soybean output. Food price risks could rise further in the near term due to the prospect of an unusually strong El Niño, coupled with fertilizer supply issues and still-high energy costs.

Sugar prices settled higher on Wednesday, with London sugar posting a 4-week high, as the outlook for tighter future supplies lifted the market. Covrig Analytics now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 metric tons, compared to a June forecast for a +100,000 metric ton surplus. Green Pool Commodity Specialists raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit estimate to -3.3 million metric tons from a June estimate of -1.76 million metric tons, and StoneX raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 million metric tons from a May estimate of -550,000 metric tons. Concerns over India’s sugar crop and the potential for an El Niño weather pattern to disrupt production in Brazil, India, and Thailand are also supporting prices.

Sugar prices extended their rally, with NY sugar hitting a three-and-a-half-week high and London sugar a four-week high, as analysts raised deficit forecasts for the 2026/27 season. Covrig Analytics now sees a global sugar deficit of 300,000 metric tons, reversing its earlier surplus call, while Green Pool Commodity Specialists widened its deficit estimate to 3.3 million metric tons and StoneX raised its deficit forecast to 1.7 million metric tons. Concerns over India's monsoon rainfall and the potential impact of a strong El Niño on top producers Brazil, India, and Thailand are also supporting prices. Brazil's sugar output has been curbed as mills shift more cane to ethanol, with Unica reporting a 2% year-on-year drop in Center-South production through May. The International Sugar Organization projects a global deficit of 262,000 metric tons for 2026/27, citing El Niño risks, while the USDA forecasts a 6.5% decline in world sugar production to 184.854 million metric tons.

Sugar prices settled sharply higher on Friday, with October NY world sugar #11 closing up 2.70% and October London ICE white sugar #5 up 3.37%, as soaring crude oil prices triggered short covering. WTI crude oil surged more than 4% to a one-month high, boosting ethanol prices and potentially prompting global sugar mills to divert more cane toward ethanol production, curbing sugar supplies. The rally reversed Thursday's three-week lows driven by improving Indian monsoon rains, though cumulative rainfall remained 24% below normal as of July 17. Funds held a record net-long position in London sugar of 58,847 contracts as of July 14, which could amplify any downturn. Broader bullish factors include El Niño threats to production in Brazil, India, and Thailand, with Brazil's Center-South sugar output down 2% year-on-year through May as mills prioritized ethanol, and Czarnikow flipping its 2026/27 global balance to a deficit of 100,000 metric tons.

Sugar prices settled higher on Tuesday after Brazil approved a higher ethanol blend in its gasoline, which could potentially boost ethanol demand and prompt Brazil's sugar mills to boost ethanol output at the expense of sugar. October NY world sugar #11 closed up 0.13, or 0.88%, and August London ICE white sugar #5 closed up 0.30, or 0.06%. Brazil's National Energy Policy Council approved a resolution that raises the mandatory blend of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline to 32% from the current 30%. Prices had tumbled to two-week lows on Monday amid an improvement in India's monsoon rains, with cumulative rainfall 19% below normal as of July 13, a substantial improvement from 42% below normal on June 30. Support also came from strength in crude oil prices, with WTI crude oil rising more than 1% to a one-month high, which benefits ethanol prices and could persuade global sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus curbing sugar supplies.

Sugar prices surged today as weak monsoon rains in India threatened the sugarcane harvest in the world's second-largest producer. NY sugar hit a two-week high and London sugar reached a 2.75-month high after India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall 42% below normal as of June 26, with the Earth Science Ministry warning this could be the weakest monsoon in 11 years. Adding support, Brazil's 2026/27 Center-South sugar production through May fell 2% year-on-year to 6.838 million metric tons as mills shifted more cane to ethanol, and trader Czarnikow revised its global 2026/27 sugar balance to a deficit of 100,000 metric tons from a prior surplus estimate. The rally was also underpinned by El Niño concerns, with Japan's Meteorological Agency confirming the weather pattern's formation, which is likely to reduce rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the top three sugar-producing regions.