United States 30 Year Bond Yield

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh have clearly divergent views on how much policymakers should intervene in setting interest rates and bond yields. Warsh supports the Fed reducing its role in guiding markets and allowing market mechanisms to play a larger role, while Bessent has used various tools, including at least doubling the size of long-term Treasury buybacks, after 30-year bond yields surged to a 19-year high. Many investors see Bessent as addressing the wrong issue, as the pressure on yields stems from a strong economy, sticky inflation, and high budget deficits. Meanwhile, Stanley Druckenmiller criticized the plan as price management rather than liquidity management, potentially undermining the Treasury's credibility. This issue will be closely watched at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole meeting, where Warsh is scheduled to speak on Friday.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of the Treasury's longer-dated bond repurchase program to at least $4 billion, up from about $2 billion, in an effort to ease surging long-term yields, a move that could have unintended consequences for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. The announcement, made two weeks after the quarterly refunding, surprised experts, and the 30-year Treasury yield, which had spiked to 5.32%, was slightly below 5.19% as of Aug. 25. Bessent's plan, potentially funded from the Treasury's $1 trillion general account, aims to reduce supply and lower yields, but it may conflict with Warsh's hawkish stance on inflation and balance-sheet reduction. Economists warn of fiscal dominance, where the Fed takes cues from the Treasury, and a possible weakening of the dollar, which could fuel inflation. The move raises questions about who truly drives policy and may undermine market confidence in Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility.

Citadel Securities has shifted its view on long-term U.S. government bonds, having previously warned of a downtrend last month. Now, it assesses that risks are tilting toward a recovery in bond prices, with long-term yields likely to decline, as investors have accumulated excessive bearish positions and inflation data begins to show improvement. Frank Flight, head of macro strategy at Citadel Securities, said in a report on Tuesday that the firm now sees market odds leaning toward lower long-term bond yields, a reversal from the previous month when he warned investors to brace for a difficult period in the U.S. bond market. Long-term U.S. government bonds have faced heavy selling in recent weeks due to concerns over inflation, budget deficits, and a large volume of debt issuance, particularly from tech companies raising funds for AI infrastructure investments. This selling pushed the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest level in nearly 20 years last week, before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to increase buybacks of 10- to 30-year bonds to help ease market pressure. One key reason for Citadel's change in outlook comes from trend-following investment strategy models, such as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), which found that bearish positions on long-term bonds are relatively stretched compared to historical norms. Flight believes this means that if bond prices fall further, there may be limited additional selling, as many investors have already established short positions. Conversely, if bond prices can recover sustainably, short sellers may need to buy back bonds to cover positions, potentially fueling further price gains and pushing yields down. This latest view marks a clear reversal for Flight, who in early July warned that bond market investors were underestimating the commitment of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to fight inflation. At that time, Flight even predicted the Fed might surprise by raising interest rates at its July 29 meeting, contrary to most economists who expected rates to remain unchanged. Ultimately, the Fed held rates steady, but Warsh's post-meeting statements raised questions in the market about the strictness of inflation control and contributed to the sell-off in long-term bonds. However, Flight now believes concerns about the Fed's credibility may be overblown, as recent economic data, including softer employment and inflation figures, are beginning to support a more accommodative monetary policy approach. Another factor supporting the positive view is Citadel Securities' cross-asset model, which examines historical episodes with similar growth and monetary policy signals. Out of 64 episodes since 2003, bond yields declined over the following 120 days in 71% of cases, with an average decrease of about 0.25 percentage points. Flight therefore assesses that after the heavy sell-off in long-term bonds, the risk-reward is now shifting toward a recovery in bond prices and lower yields.

Prominent investor Stanley Druckenmiller said the U.S. Treasury's expansion of bond buybacks will undermine confidence in the Treasury market and squander an opportunity for debt reform. Druckenmiller, a former colleague of Treasury Secretary Bessent at Soros Fund Management, wrote in an opinion piece published in the Wall Street Journal on the 24th that the market is right to view last week's buyback expansion as price manipulation and a mistake. Before the Treasury's announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield had reached its highest level in about two decades, but after the announcement yields briefly fell before turning higher. Druckenmiller pointed out that long-term Treasury yields are the most important price in the world, and that intervention risks forcing even larger buybacks to sustain the effect, potentially damaging hard-won credibility and hurting market confidence. He also said the buyback expansion coincides with the final stretch of the midterm election campaign, and that debt management that appears to follow the political calendar would erode an asset built over two centuries: confidence in the U.S. Treasury market.

The options market expects Nvidia shares could see sharp volatility after the company reports second-quarter results on Wednesday, with the stock potentially moving up or down about 5.4% the next day. That would represent a change in market value of roughly $280 billion, more than the market capitalization of about 90% of companies in the S&P 500. The expected volatility is still below the 6.5% level priced in before Nvidia reported results in May, and below the average post-earnings stock move over the past 12 quarters of about 7.4%. Analysts say the lower expectations reflect that investors are starting to see Nvidia's results as more predictable. Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna, said the early phase of the AI era, when Nvidia often surprised with results far above expectations and drove the stock up 10 to 20% after earnings, may have passed. Nvidia shares closed lower for a seventh straight session on Monday, though the stock is still up about 11.7% year to date, close to the S&P 500's 11.8% gain, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged as much as 61%. Sentiment ahead of the earnings report is also being pressured by concerns about higher energy prices and rising US government debt, which have pushed long-term Treasury yields higher. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in 19 years last week. Reports that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may use money from the Treasury General Account, which holds nearly $1 trillion, to support bond buybacks instead of increasing new bond issuance helped push the 30-year yield slightly lower on Monday, but it remains above 5%. The rise in yields is putting pressure on growth and technology stocks and has the market focused on remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole this week. For Nvidia's results, investors will focus on revenue guidance, chip demand, profit margins, and whether AI spending by major cloud providers continues to increase, since Nvidia is still seen as a key barometer of the broader AI investment cycle. Nvidia has also recently partnered with six major financial institutions to establish a capital-raising platform for AI infrastructure with a total target value of more than $500 billion, reflecting the enormous sums that companies and governments around the world are pouring into building data centers and AI computing systems. Investors are therefore not only watching whether Nvidia's results beat or miss expectations, but also seeking answers on whether major hyperscaler companies will continue investing in AI at high levels, because that direction will determine both Nvidia's revenue and broader confidence in AI stocks.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the Treasury will proceed with bond auctions as originally planned, avoiding any additional signals about changes to debt management strategy, following reports that it may draw funds from the Treasury General Account, or TGA, to buy back older bonds with high yields. Bessent told reporters that the Treasury has not bought a single bond and that no changes will be made before the next quarterly debt management announcement in early November. Earlier, CNBC reported, citing senior Treasury sources, that the department may use funds from the TGA, which had a balance of 935 billion dollars as of August 20, to buy back bonds instead of issuing additional short-term Treasury bills. Last week, the Treasury announced an expansion of its buyback program for 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year bonds from 2 billion dollars to 4 billion dollars per operation between September 9 and November 4, after the 30-year bond yield surged to 5.34 percent, its highest level in nearly 20 years. Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that the Treasury may have surplus cash of around 80 billion to 200 billion dollars available to increase bond buybacks, while Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and other financial institutions view the measure as likely to ease pressure on yields only modestly, with new macroeconomic factors needed to help push bond yields lower.

Goldman Sachs warns that the US Treasury's bond buyback program is only a short-term first-aid measure, and the only sustainable way to push down the 30-year US Treasury yield, which has surged to 5.25 percent, the highest since 2007, is continued signs of slowing inflation. Strategist Friedrich Schaper says the root of the problem is not liquidity, but investors' structural concerns about record-high public debt burdens, the risk of accelerating inflation, and competition for capital from corporate bond issuance. If inflation eases, it would reduce worries about purchasing power and open the door for the Fed to end rate hikes or cut rates in the future, which would directly support the bond market. Recent data favorable to the bond market include weaker-than-expected US retail sales, slowing employment figures, and July core inflation that was not as hot as feared.

Gold and Bitcoin surged after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the Treasury would at least double its liquidity-support purchases of longer-dated Treasury securities from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. Gold climbed almost 7% to roughly $4,730 an ounce, while Bitcoin jumped more than 24% to nearly $80,000 since the announcement. Two senior Treasury officials told CNBC the department is considering using its Treasury General Account, estimated at around $950 billion, to finance expanded buybacks, which could put cash back into the financial system while Treasury purchases longer-dated securities. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.70% and the 30-year yield slipped toward 5.24%, reducing the opportunity cost of owning gold and supporting demand for scarce, supply-limited assets outside the Treasury system.

Wall Street heads into one of the biggest weeks of the late summer, with Nvidia earnings, a key inflation reading and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole appearance all likely to shape the outlook for stocks and bonds heading into September. Nvidia reports earnings Wednesday after the closing bell, with options traders pricing in a roughly 6% move and the chipmaker forecast to report more than $92 billion in quarterly revenue. The core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is due Wednesday morning, with Deutsche Bank tracking a 0.18% monthly increase, equivalent to annual growth of around 3.22%. Warsh is scheduled to speak Friday at Jackson Hole, and Deutsche Bank believes he may use the speech to outline his broader vision for the central bank rather than offer specific policy signals. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.27% last week, while Brent crude ended above $94 per barrel and Bitcoin surged 22% to above $77,000.

The Treasury General Account has ballooned to around $950 billion, nearly double the Biden administration's $550 billion to $600 billion target, giving Secretary Scott Bessent firepower to fund expanded bond buybacks. CNBC reported Monday, citing two senior Treasury officials, that the balance is considered available for the department's recently doubled long-bond buyback program, now at least $4 billion. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.23% last week, a level not seen since 2007, though it was down 4 basis points on Monday. Draining the account would thin the debt-ceiling cushion, estimated around winter or early spring, and restoring it would require selling additional bonds.

The Treasury Department's efforts to calm the bond-market selloff haven't yet worked as well as hoped, with long-term yields remaining near multi-decade highs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined plans to buy more long-dated Treasurys this fall and promised to use the agency's large tool kit to support the market, but the 30-year Treasury yield was at 5.24% Monday, still near its 19-year high, and the 10-year yield was at 4.71%, near its one-year high. Portfolio manager Tracy Chen of Brandywine Global said Bessent failed to cap long-term Treasury yields and that bond vigilantes still don't believe him. The Treasury's buybacks can help ease pressure by improving liquidity, but they won't address the core issue of financing a massive and growing debt load, with the nearly $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit so far this fiscal year reinforcing the borrowing need. Net interest payments on the national debt are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year, while higher oil prices and more military spending brought on by the Iran war have fueled renewed inflation anxiety.

US government bond yields fell after reports that the US Treasury may use funds in the Treasury General Account, or TGA, to buy back government bonds. As of 7:36 p.m. Thailand time, the 10-year yield stood at 4.704% and the 30-year yield at 5.235%. CNBC reported, citing a senior Treasury official, that the TGA currently holds about 950 billion dollars in cash, and using funds from this account would give the Treasury the ability to influence long-term bond yields. Last week, the Treasury announced it would increase the size of its long-term bond buybacks from 2 billion dollars to at least 4 billion dollars to boost market liquidity. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the operation could exceed 4 billion dollars. The sources did not specify how much TGA money would be used or when it would be announced, but even a small use of TGA funds, or simply market awareness that the Treasury is ready to use them, could affect bond yields and help ease concerns that the Fed might be asked to step in and help the Treasury buy back government bonds.

TMBThanachart Bank expects the baht to move in a range of 32.20 to 33.00 baht per US dollar this week, from the current level of around 32.74 baht per dollar. The market continues to closely watch economic data and monetary policy direction of major central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as well as developments in international trade. The preliminary US composite purchasing managers' index for August rose to 56.0 from 54.5 in the previous month, while import prices fell 0.4 percent and industrial and manufacturing production rose 0.2 percent. Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting indicated that most officials still supported keeping the policy rate unchanged at the July meeting, but some members saw a possible need for further rate hikes if inflation remained high. The US Treasury announced an increase in the buyback amount for long-term government bonds from 2 billion US dollars to 4 billion US dollars per operation, covering bonds with maturities of 10 to 30 years. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the United States and Canada increased after the US announced a 50 percent tariff on imports from Canada, worth around 20 billion US dollars, and Canada prepared to introduce retaliatory measures of a similar value. Last week, the baht strengthened and traded below 33.00 baht per dollar, supported by a weaker dollar and higher gold prices.

YLG recommends investors open long positions in gold when the price pulls back to the $4,527 to $4,500 per ounce area, with a stop loss if the price breaks below $4,500. Domestic 96.5% gold bullion was quoted at 70,750 baht per baht-weight, up 1,000 baht from the previous day. Gold closed on Thursday, August 20, 2026 at $4,571 per ounce, up $26.10 or 0.57%, after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the government bond buyback program could be worth more than the announced $4 billion and that the Treasury would intervene in longer-dated bonds. Earlier, the Treasury had announced it would at least double buybacks of 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective from September 9 through November 4, 2026. However, yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries rebounded again on Thursday even after the Treasury announced the doubling of buyback size, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 700 points. The latest CME Group FedWatch tool assigns a 67.4% probability to rates being held steady at the September 15–16, 2026 meeting, while Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that under the assumption the Fed holds rates, gold could break above $5,000 per ounce by 2027 or possibly sooner. On geopolitics, President Trump announced the toughest economic measures ever imposed on Iran and warned that countries allowing their financial institutions or businesses to support Iran would face massive economic consequences. Iran's central bank governor acknowledged that Iran currently has no oil exports and that oil sales revenue has fallen to zero. China, which buys more than 90% of Iran's total oil exports, has opposed the economic-war approach and called for a return to diplomatic processes. YLG's investment strategy is to open long positions if the price consolidates down to the $4,527 to $4,500 area, cut losses if it breaks below $4,500, and take profit if the price fails to clear $4,596. If it clears $4,596, delay profit-taking to $4,627 to $4,660.

Bond investors will focus on Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, with a further selloff in long-dated Treasuries at stake as markets look for clues on the Federal Reserve chairman's response to persistent inflation and fiscal concerns. Long-term US bonds have come under pressure in recent weeks, with traders pushing the yield on 30-year bonds to the highest level since 2007 at one point. The Treasury Department responded by announcing plans to at least double the size of buybacks of longer-dated securities, providing only temporary relief from the selloff. Warsh himself has provided little forward guidance since taking the post in May, and his appearance after the last policy meeting sparked a massive selloff, underscoring the market sensitivity surrounding Friday's remarks. In the run-up to Jackson Hole, investors will get a fresh look at price pressures with the release of the personal consumption expenditures index for July on Wednesday.

J.P. Morgan has warned that the Treasury's surprise doubling of long-bond buybacks lacks credibility and could push term premiums higher. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent responded the way an activist Treasury chief does. He stepped in. The bank's rates team told clients the intervention may be read as lacking credibility, while co-head of global fundamental research James Sullivan compared the swap of longer-dated bonds for bills to paying a mortgage with a credit card. The Treasury market is worth roughly $32 trillion, making the increase to at least $4 billion per operation nearly invisible, and the 30-year yield finished the week around 5.27%, higher than before the intervention.

Bitcoin had its best week in more than three years, surging roughly 23% while stocks fell, gold jumped about 5%, and the dollar declined. The move came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of planned buybacks for some longer-dated Treasurys on Wednesday, briefly knocking the 30-year yield down 9 basis points. By Friday, the 30-year yield had clawed back almost its entire drop, but bitcoin had surged more than 10% and gold tacked on another 2%. This week marked the first time since 2015 that bitcoin gained more than 15% while stocks fell, gold rose, the dollar declined, and the 30-year yield rose, according to Yahoo Finance data. Coinage founder Zack Guzman said the rally was mostly spot-driven rather than leveraged, suggesting it may have legs.

Gold prices surged past the $4,500 level after long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, as the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would increase buybacks of 10- to 30-year bonds to at least $4 billion per operation, up from $2 billion, to boost liquidity in the long-term bond market. This pushed the 30-year yield down nearly 10 basis points to 5.18%, after it had hit its highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened to near a three-month low, helping gold climb more than 3%. Analysts at G-Cap assessed that gold's price structure has turned more positive after breaking through key resistance around $4,450 and testing the $4,500 level. In the short term, they are watching support around $4,425 to $4,405, or roughly 68,500 to 68,300 baht for Thai gold. If prices can hold above that zone, there is a chance of a rebound to test $4,500 to $4,520, or about 69,800 to 70,200 baht for Thai gold.

The 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.33% on Tuesday, its highest level in 19 years, creating a roughly 2.2 percentage point advantage over the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF's 3.1% yield. The last time the long bond yielded this much was June 2007, when it peaked at 5.35%, and the subsequent financial crisis saw the yield collapse to 2.69% by the end of 2008, rewarding bondholders with price gains. On the equity side, Standard & Poor's counted 110 negative dividend actions in 2007, 606 in 2008, and 804 in 2009, with indicated dividend payments falling by a net $43.8 billion in the first quarter of 2009 alone. General Electric cut its quarterly dividend from $0.31 to $0.10 per share in February 2009, preserving about $9 billion a year, and dividend increases across U.S. stocks did not return to their prior pace until 2012. The Schwab fund, which launched in late 2011 and tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 index, screens for companies with at least 10 consecutive years of dividend payments and financial-strength measures, and its shares have returned about 27% this year.

Rep. Thomas Massie said Wednesday that the growing burden of interest payments on the national debt is the direct result of policies he opposed in Congress, a stance that he says cost him his re-election bid. Massie said in a post on X that every American is paying $4,000 per year in interest on the debt to banks and foreign countries, and that a family of four owes $16,000 per year for nothing but interest. He lost his Kentucky primary in May to President Donald Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein after Trump campaigned against him for opposing his tax legislation and other party priorities. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley separately warned that Social Security could go bankrupt within five years, affecting 75 million Americans, as the national debt crossed $40.05 trillion this week. Interest payments on the debt have reached nearly $1.2 trillion this year, now the largest federal expense after Social Security and Medicare, as the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to a 19-year high this week.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced on August 19 that it will double its purchases of long-dated Treasury bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion, a surprise intervention that complicates the Federal Reserve's inflation fight. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's move aims to push down yields on 10-, 20-, and 30-year bonds, which have surged to near multidecade highs amid above-average inflation, the removal of forward guidance by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and U.S. debt crossing $40 trillion for the first time. The intervention could lower corporate borrowing costs and mortgage rates, but it may force Warsh and the FOMC to raise the federal funds target rate to maintain price stability, especially as core PCE inflation shows the Iran war's price pressures have become entrenched. Warsh, sworn in on May 22, faces a dilemma: act against sticky inflation and risk angering President Donald Trump and halting the AI-driven stock rally, or do nothing and let inflation accelerate.

The yield-suppressing effect of the expanded long-term Treasury buyback measures announced by the U.S. Treasury on the 19th faded in just one day. The Treasury unveiled an unusual step of raising the per-operation cap for buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasuries to at least more than double, at 4 billion dollars, or about 640 billion yen. On the day of the announcement, buying of long-term bonds swelled and yields fell sharply. However, inflation concerns remained persistent amid fiscal anxiety and higher crude oil prices caused by worsening conditions in the Middle East, and from the 20th onward rates turned higher. Concerns are growing that there is no way to prevent the expansion of the federal debt, which has topped the 40 trillion dollar mark, or about 6.4 quadrillion yen, for the first time. The fact that the buybacks, running from September through November, are merely a stopgap measure is also seen as a factor. Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned on U.S. television on the 20th the possibility of further raising the cap, but some in the market are critical, saying it would instead reveal the dire situation and prove counterproductive. Securing the funds needed for the buybacks is expected to involve issuing short-term bills, which carries the risk of pushing up short-term rates and worsening financial institutions' funding conditions. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, who took office in May, is opposed to supporting Treasury prices for fiscal assistance purposes, but market speculation is emerging that the Fed could become the buyer to avert a surge in short-term rates.

The US Treasury announced it will more than double the size of its buybacks of 10-year to 30-year government bonds, from 2 billion dollars to 4 billion dollars per operation, in an effort to pull down yields that had surged because of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The program will run from September 9 to November 4, 2026. After the announcement, US stocks recovered, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 jumping while the Nasdaq was slightly lower. The 30-year bond yield eased to 5.196 percent after touching its highest level since June 2007, while the 10-year yield stood at about 4.647 percent. The move came amid concerns that the Fed could raise interest rates, after minutes from the July 2026 FOMC meeting showed three members supported a quarter-point rate increase. Goldman Sachs, however, said a Fed rate hike in this cycle is highly unlikely and expects rate cuts to be delayed until 2027.

The U.S. Treasury said this week it would at least double bond buybacks for 10-year and 30-year notes as public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time. The 30-year yield fell as much as 10 basis points after the announcement, and the dollar fell against every major peer, with Korea's won and Japan's yen among the strongest gainers. The announcement arrived without advance discussion from the Treasury's own borrowing advisory committee, a procedural choice that dealers are now pricing. Bloomberg short-term rates reporter Alex Harris framed the move as a confrontation the Treasury cannot afford to keep repeating, saying each surprise buyback raises the premium markets demand next time, making the tool progressively more expensive and less effective. Bloomberg MLIV strategist Mark Cranfield argued the dollar weakness has room to run, while Franklin Templeton's 2026 outlook sees a weaker dollar and steeper yield curves as favorable for emerging debt and equity markets, European equities, and U.S. smaller-capitalization stocks.

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warns that if the US Treasury's plan to tame long-term bond yields fails, the dollar will weaken and investors will increase short bets against riskier assets ahead of November midterm elections. Hartnett says if Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cannot drag the 30-year yield below 5%, he foresees a dollar slump and more short selling against AI hyperscalers, private credit, and financials. He describes the Treasury's proposal to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds as quasi quantitative easing and the latest in a series of Bessent puts to protect US government and AI financing. The 30-year yield was around 5.2% on Friday after reaching its highest in almost two decades, and the S&P 500 is down 1.9% since Monday. BofA's bull-and-bear indicator still shows an extreme bull reading, with US stock funds attracting almost $29 billion in the week through August 19, while semiconductor outflows extended for a third week to $6.3 billion.

YLG recommends opening a long position in gold if the price pulls back to the 4,450 to 4,400 dollar per ounce area, with a stop loss if the price breaks below 4,285 dollars. Gold closed on Wednesday night, 19 August 2026, at 4,545.30 dollars per ounce, up 124.70 dollars, or 2.82 percent, from the previous day, marking one of the strongest gains this year. The main support came from the US Treasury announcing it would buy back bonds with maturities of 10 to 20 years and 20 to 30 years, expanding the maximum size to at least double, from 2 billion dollars to at least 4 billion dollars, effective from 9 September to 4 November 2026. As a result, the yield on the 10-year US government bond fell to 4.647 percent and the 30-year yield fell to 5.196 percent, while the dollar index dropped 0.83 percent to 98.833. The yen strengthened from 159.6 yen per dollar to 158.32 yen, and the euro strengthened from 1.1576 dollars to 1.1674 dollars. Total US public debt outstanding surpassed 40 trillion dollars for the first time in history, standing at 40.047 trillion dollars as of 18 August 2026, split between debt held by the public of 32.266 trillion dollars and intragovernmental debt of 7.782 trillion dollars. On monetary policy, the minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that policymakers were more concerned about inflation, and several saw that the Fed may need to raise interest rates if inflation does not fall toward the 2 percent target. However, CME Group's FedWatch tool indicated that investors assigned a 65 percent probability that the Fed will hold rates at its meeting on 15 to 16 September 2026, after US economic data came in weak. The market therefore chose to place more weight on economic data than on Fed officials' remarks. For investment strategy, YLG recommends taking profit if the price fails to break above 4,527 dollars, but if it breaks above 4,527 dollars, delay profit-taking to the 4,575 to 4,596 dollar area.

The US Treasury announced on the 19th that, to curb the rise in long-term interest rates, it will raise the per-operation cap on liquidity-support buybacks of long-term nominal coupon Treasuries to at least double, at 4 billion dollars. In a television interview, Treasury Secretary Bessent cited the reason for the measure as the particularly thin market for 30-year bonds and yields not matching fundamentals, and also suggested the possibility of expanding buybacks depending on the situation. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Warsh supports a policy of reducing the number of FOMC meetings from eight to six per year and limiting communication with the market, indicating a stance that the market should lead policy. JPMorgan warned that the Treasury's measure is not a fundamental solution and could eventually push up the term premium and yields on long-term bonds. Concerns about a downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating have also emerged, and a downgrade could accelerate dollar selling. The dollar index has fallen below its 200-day moving average, suggesting a shift to a medium-term downtrend. Chair Warsh is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech at the 2026 Jackson Hole annual economic policy symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed on August 28.

XRP surged over 20% in 24 hours to $1.24, overtaking USDC to become the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market value at $77.47 billion. The rally was triggered by the US Treasury's announcement on Wednesday that it would at least double long-end bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation starting September 9, which pushed the 30-year Treasury yield down from a 2007 high of 5.34% to 5.196% and weakened the dollar. The move sparked roughly $3.3 billion in crypto short liquidations, the largest single-day total this year, with Bitcoin clearing $72,000 for the first time since early June. President Trump met with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and other crypto executives at the White House and pressed the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act on crypto regulation. XRP now holds a $5.20 billion lead over USDC, though its relative strength index remains below the 60 level needed to confirm a buy signal.

Bitcoin has traded through two US market interventions in under three weeks, moving opposite ways each time, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that buybacks could exceed $4 billion per issue and would become routine. The first intervention, Japan's estimated $53 billion yen purchase in early August, pushed Bitcoin down 1.25% toward $63,000 because it did not lower long-dated US yields, while the second, the Treasury's August 19 doubling of long-end buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation, lifted Bitcoin 8.8% to near $69,803 within an hour as roughly $1.23 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated. Bessent also said 30-year liquidity is particularly poor and yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals, though he denied that rates drove the decision, and he added that the deficit has probably peaked under this administration. The rally's threat is that both interventions have faded, with the 10-year yield back near 4.692% and the 30-year at 5.237%, and the added buyback scale of roughly $14 billion against a market worth more than $30 trillion does not start until September 9.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the maximum size of liquidity-support buyback operations in the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year sectors from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, effective September 9 through November 4. The 30-year Treasury yield fell 8 to 10 basis points, gold rose as much as 4.3% to $4,525 an ounce, and silver climbed between 5% and 6.4% to near $68. Silver outpaced gold because industrial demand from solar panels and green tech gives it higher sensitivity when yields fall and risk-on conditions emerge. The additional buybacks through November amount to low-to-mid tens of billions of dollars, a rounding error against a Treasury market north of $28 trillion, and the rally is a narrative response to fiscal concern rather than monetary easing.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on the 20th that it is too early to judge the impact of the Treasury Department's bond market support measures on the Federal Reserve's operations. In an interview with Bloomberg, when asked whether the Treasury's bond support measures could affect the Fed's ability to achieve its goals, Daly said, "It's still in the early stages, so I don't want to rush to a discussion before we've had a chance to fully examine it." She stressed that what matters is not the "mechanism" for achieving the Fed's goals, but the commitment to bringing inflation back to 2 percent. On the 19th, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double the size of its liquidity-support purchase operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities from 2 billion dollars to at least 4 billion dollars per operation, prompting the 30-year Treasury yield to plunge from near its highest level in 19 years.

Bank of America's latest survey of global fund managers shows they have 56% of their portfolios in equities, the highest proportion since November 2021, even as a disorderly rise in bond yields is seen as the second-largest threat to the equity market after concerns about an AI bubble. The jump in yields is the elephant in the room that threatens to derail an equity market that has had trouble staying near records, according to Tyler Richey, editor of the Sevens Report Technicals newsletter. Strategists largely conclude yields haven't climbed high enough to derail the bull case for stocks, with JC O'Hara of Roth Capital Partners saying investors should be bullish or at least opportunistic given stronger earnings expectations and better economic outlooks. The US Treasury unexpectedly said it would ramp up buybacks of long-dated government debt, sending the 10-year yield down six basis points to 4.65% and the 30-year yield down nine basis points to 5.19%. Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research said the equity market is in a sweet spot of the yield curve, with the 10-year about 49 basis points higher than the two-year, a range that has historically produced average annual S&P 500 returns of roughly 11% since 1976.

Some investors say the dollar will be the biggest casualty after the US Treasury announced on the 19th that it would at least double the planned buyback amount for outstanding 10- to 30-year bonds. Gerald Gunn, chief investment officer at Reed Capital, said Treasury Secretary Bessent will deliberately push down real long-term interest rates to curb the rise in long-term yields and send a signal that he is willing to tolerate a weaker dollar to support the economy. Andrew Canobi, director of fixed income at Franklin Templeton, also said Bessent is effectively saying he is prepared to sacrifice some dollar strength if that helps keep term rates somewhat contained. Bloomberg's dollar index fell 0.8 percent on the 19th and extended its decline on the 20th to a three-month low, while in the options market bearish dollar positions against major currencies were added immediately after the announcement. Mohit Kumar of Jefferies International said any form of yield control would be a dollar-negative factor, and that the best way to reflect this view is to take positions in commodities and Asian currencies.

US stock futures steadied on Thursday after President Trump vowed to squeeze Iran economically and the US Treasury's surprise move to intervene in the bond market caused Treasury yields to retreat and cryptocurrencies to surge. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline, while those on the S&P 500 traded higher, and contracts for the Nasdaq-100 led gains, rising 0.2% after all three major indexes notched winning sessions on Wednesday. The 10-year yield fell by 5 basis points to 4.65%, while the 30-year yield declined by 9 basis points to 5.19%, and Bitcoin surged over 9% to reach the $70,000 level for the first time since early June. Attention also turned to the United States' financial health as the national debt surpassed $40 trillion, having more than doubled in less than a decade. Walmart earnings highlight the calendar on Thursday, with analysts expecting strong earnings but anticipating slowing sales growth.

The US Treasury announced it is doubling the buyback size for 10- to 30-year bonds to at least 4 billion dollars per operation, up from 2 billion dollars, effective from September 9 through November 4. The move came after the 30-year bond yield surged to 5.34 percent, its highest level in 19 years, amid selling pressure and concerns over the government's fiscal position. The yield later eased to 5.184 percent following the announcement. On the same day, the Treasury disclosed that total public debt outstanding surpassed 40 trillion dollars for the first time, reaching 40.047 trillion dollars as of August 18. Of that, debt held by the private sector and investors outside the government stood at 32.266 trillion dollars, while intragovernmental holdings amounted to 7.782 trillion dollars. Federal debt has more than doubled in less than a decade, up from 19.95 trillion dollars in 2017.

The US Treasury's unexpected announcement of expanded bond buybacks has put a brake on the rise in global long-term interest rates. The department said it will double the size of its liquidity-support purchase operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities from 2 billion dollars to at least 4 billion dollars per operation. While that amount is tiny in the 32.2 trillion dollar US Treasury market, the move came shortly after the Treasury conducted yen-buying intervention in currency markets, and analysts see it as a sign of the administration's sensitivity to rising long-term yields and its willingness to intervene in markets. JPMorgan analysts said the announcement immediately eased borrowing costs somewhat, but noted that, like Japan's recent intervention, the Treasury's action masks underlying structural issues rather than addressing them. They added that over the longer term it could raise risk premiums, reflecting a Treasury that is stepping into markets and moving away from the principle of being regular and predictable. The 30-year US Treasury yield fell 9 basis points in overnight trading to 5.19 percent and was little changed in Tokyo trading on the 20th.

Metaplanet's share price rose sharply on August 20, driven by a surge in Bitcoin. According to Yahoo Finance, as of 10:52 a.m. the stock was at 253 yen, up 16.06% from the previous close of 218 yen, and shortly after the open it was bought up to 258 yen, with the gain briefly reaching about 18.3%. That was also about 8% above the high of 239 yen set the previous day, August 19, when the company announced plans for its US Bitcoin treasury business, Superplanet. Following the previous day's corporate announcement, the sharp rise in Bitcoin prices on this day may have been seen as a fresh buying catalyst. On August 18, Metaplanet announced a plan to make Nasdaq-listed Super League Enterprise a consolidated subsidiary through an investment, using it as the base for its US Bitcoin treasury business, and Super League is scheduled to change its name to Superplanet, Inc. after the transaction closes. Meanwhile, Bitcoin was trading around 69,500 dollars on the morning of August 20, up about 8% over 24 hours, and at one point approached the 70,000 dollar level. Behind Bitcoin's rise was the US Treasury's announcement on August 19 of an expansion of long-term government bond buybacks, saying it would at least double the per-operation cap for liquidity-support buybacks targeting 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year bonds from the current 2 billion dollars to 4 billion dollars. The change takes effect on September 9. Expanding bond buybacks is a measure by which the US Treasury increases the amount of government bonds it purchases from the market, boosting liquidity in the bond market, and after the announcement 30-year bond yields also fell. This shift in market conditions is seen as having spurred buying in risk assets such as Bitcoin.