ECB Tightening Outlook Supports Euro Against Dollar: BNY
BNY's Geoff Yu highlights that European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel sees further rate hikes as necessary, with Euro area inflation risks still tilted to the upside and growth more resilient than expected. This hawkish stance from the ECB provides support for the Euro against the US Dollar, as the market anticipates continued monetary tightening from the central bank.
European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview with Bloomberg News published on the 26th that interest rates need to be raised further, as the prolonged Middle East conflict and the resilience of the euro zone economy pose upside risks to inflation. She stated, "At the current level of policy rates, it is unlikely that inflation will return to target in the medium term, so further tightening will be necessary."
ECB set to raise interest rates in September to curb inflation from Iran war
The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to raise interest rates at its September meeting to address economic pressures from the Iran war, with the policy rate expected to increase to 2.50% from 2.25%. This follows the first rate hike in nearly three years in June, aimed at preventing soaring energy prices from spilling over into other parts of the economy. The rate increase has been reflected in the ECB's economic projections since June, with policymakers viewing it as necessary to avoid a repeat of the severe inflation seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Key drivers of inflation include surging natural gas prices and persistently high fuel prices at the pump. With inflation near 3% and the conflict in Iran ongoing, coupled with a still-strong eurozone economy, the ECB's Governing Council deemed it necessary and appropriate to raise rates again. However, the ECB has not signaled further hikes beyond the September meeting.
United Overseas Bank analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann maintain a constructive outlook on the euro against the US dollar despite recent consolidation around 1.1660. They still see room for upside toward 1.1725 in the coming weeks as long as support at 1.1630 holds.
ING sees euro positioning supporting gradual gains against dollar
ING's Chris Turner says futures data show asset managers and leveraged funds adding euro exposure, leaving speculators underweight. He notes recovering German IFO and Eurozone PMIs, and sees limited need for EUR/USD to drop sharply below 1.1660/70 unless risk assets suffer.
CTA equity positioning back to pre-Iran levels: BofA
Systematic trend-following funds' equity positioning has climbed back to levels last seen before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, with room to rise further if realized volatility continues to decline, BofA Securities said in a recent note. Faster-moving models could still add exposure in the United States and Japan, while European positioning looks more stretched, sitting at consensus long across trend speeds, according to the bank's Systematic Flows Monitor. A bearish price path could trigger sizable unwinds, with global equity selling potentially exceeding $100 billion, BofA said. For individual indices, the bank sees selling accelerating on declines of roughly 3% in the S&P 500, 5% in the Nasdaq-100, 5% in the Russell 2000, 4% in the Euro Stoxx 50 and 5% in the Nikkei. Most of any selling would come from medium- to longer-term trend followers, BofA said. Elsewhere, CTA positioning in U.S. Treasury futures remains stretched short, while a sharp rise in yields this week gave those positions more breathing room, pushing short-covering triggers further away. The U.S. dollar extended its decline with a sizable move lower on Wednesday, increasing pressure on stretched EURUSD shorts held by slower-moving trend followers. BofA's model shows euro buying from 1.1691 to 1.1853 against Friday's 1.1679 reference. Canadian dollar shorts also caused pain this week, though stop-out risk is more limited, the bank said. CTA positioning against the dollar is not fully one-sided, as trend followers remain long Mexican peso/U.S. dollar, which has supported performance in recent weeks. Oil continued higher on renewed conflict in Iran, and trend followers have been adding to longs, led by medium-term models and followed by longer-term followers. In gold, the rally extended, but CTAs are likely not yet meaningfully involved after the recent flattening of shorts. Medium- and long-term gold trends remain negative, though the fastest-moving models could be starting to accumulate a long. Trend followers remain stretched long copper and soybean oil, BofA said. S&P 500 hedger gamma ended Aug. 20 at $3.2 billion, in the 39th percentile over the last year, slipping modestly from mid-week levels as positive gamma expiries rolled off. Monthly option expiry accounted for a relatively small share, $0.6 billion, of total gamma as of Aug. 20, with hedgers net long about 5,000 contracts between 7550 and 7750. Hedger gamma is positive across every expiry next week, with options expiring during the Jackson Hole conference on Aug. 27 and 28 collectively contributing about $2.8 billion. Hedger vega positioning in options with more than one-month expiry remained net short, in line with last week's levels, BofA said.
Citi sees U.S.-Japan currency alliance behind coordinated intervention
Citi strategists say recent coordinated intervention by the United States and Japan signals an informal currency alliance linking foreign-exchange policy with the countries' wider economic and national-security relationship. Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura described the latest intervention as the culmination of that alliance, which Citi views as policy coordination that may also support Japan's $550 billion U.S. investment programme. The bank does not believe Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is implementing a proposed Mar-a-Lago accord, though dollar-selling intervention through the Federal Reserve's Foreign and International Monetary Authorities facility was one element of that framework. Citi said Bessent appears concerned that prolonged yen weakness could recreate conditions seen before the Asian currency crisis in the late 1990s, and President Donald Trump's description of the intervention as a signal of friendship suggests Washington supported the action. The move may also send a warning to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whose reflationary policies could place renewed downward pressure on the yen, and Citi believes Washington wants Tokyo to moderate that stance. The bank drew a comparison with 1998, when the U.S. initially refused to participate in coordinated intervention as the yen weakened, and USD/JPY later plunged from ¥147 to ¥108 within six months after the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management disrupted financial markets. Another unusual feature of the latest action was U.S. intervention to sell euros and buy yen, which Citi views as a temporary shift by the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund from a historically expensive euro into an undervalued yen. Japan could take similar action if EUR/JPY rises toward ¥185 to ¥186, and European authorities may tolerate limited intervention following Washington's move. USD/JPY is expected to remain the main focus, and intervention could also seek to push EUR/JPY below its recent low near ¥180, at least temporarily. Markets will watch the Jackson Hole symposium from August 27 to 29, followed by G7 and G20 finance meetings in Asheville on August 31 and September 1, for further policy signals.
The euro strengthened against the US dollar, supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone August PMI data and broad dollar weakness, according to Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad. The composite PMI hit a nine-month high, driven by manufacturing.
Nomura sees euro outperforming pound, dollar and yen
Nomura strategists expect the euro to outperform the British pound, US dollar and Japanese yen. They see greater fiscal vulnerabilities in the United Kingdom than in the euro area. Strong foreign inflows into euro area bonds and comparatively better debt dynamics support the view.
Eurozone consumer inflation expectations fall for third straight month
According to the July consumer expectations survey released by the European Central Bank on the 21st, eurozone consumers' inflation expectations declined for the third consecutive month. The median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months fell to 2.9 percent from 3.0 percent in June, and the median expectation for three years ahead also declined to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent. The five-year outlook was unchanged at 2.4 percent. Inflation is still expected to remain above the ECB's 2 percent target. The ECB raised interest rates in June in response to inflation driven by factors such as energy stemming from the Middle East situation, and a Reuters survey of economists expects an additional rate hike next month.
Eurozone composite PMI hits highest since last November in August, led by manufacturing
S&P Global reported on the 21st that the flash eurozone composite purchasing managers' index for August came in at 52.1, up from 52.0 in July and the highest since last November. It also beat the Reuters consensus forecast of 51.7, with new orders growing at the fastest pace in 40 months and export orders, including those within the eurozone, rising for the first time since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 from 51.9, the highest in more than four years, and output growth reached its strongest in 54 months, while the services PMI was unchanged at 51.7. Employment increased for the first time this year, with manufacturing resuming hiring after more than three years and services posting the fastest growth in eight months. Price pressures remained elevated but were easing, with input cost growth at a six-month low and output price inflation slowing to a five-month low. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that given solid business sentiment, a recovering labour market and sticky inflation, the European Central Bank is likely to maintain a hawkish bias and cannot rule out a rate hike in the near term.
Scotiabank sees euro bullish trend targeting upper 1.17s
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that EUR/USD gains are being driven mainly by broad US Dollar weakness, with front-end spreads narrowing since late June and supporting Euro fundamentals. They see the bullish trend eyeing the upper 1.17s against the US Dollar.
EUR/JPY gains above 185.00 as Japan GDP disappoints
EUR/JPY rose to around 185.20 in early European trading on Thursday after Japan's second-quarter GDP expanded 0.3%, below the 0.5% consensus and prior reading. The softer yen came despite growing market bets that the Bank of Japan could raise rates as early as September 2026, with overnight index swaps pricing an 80% chance of a hike at the next policy meeting. Danske Bank reiterated it expects only one further 25 basis point rate hike from the European Central Bank. Technically, the cross holds a bullish bias above the 100-day simple moving average at 185.10, with resistance at 186.32 and the upper Bollinger Band near 187.50.
Euro spikes against US Dollar on Treasury buybacks
The euro jumped against the US dollar after the US Treasury increased buyback volumes of longer-dated US Treasuries, flattening the bond curve and pulling the 10-year yield below Tuesday's peak, according to Danske Bank's research team.
Dollar weakens after US increases Treasury buybacks
The dollar weakened against major currencies after the US Treasury announced it would more than double the size of its Treasury buybacks to boost market liquidity. The dollar index fell 0.72% to 98.935, while the dollar slipped 0.71% to 1.166 against the euro and dropped 0.75% to 158.42 yen. The US Treasury will raise the maximum buyback size for 10-20 year and 20-30 year bonds from 2 billion dollars to at least 4 billion dollars, effective from September 9 through November 4. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to 4.647%, and the 30-year yield dropped to 5.196%. Investors are watching for the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting, due for release today.
ECB's Lane says eurozone inflation of 3% is too high
European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said on the 18th that a eurozone inflation rate of 3% is too high for the ECB. Speaking at an event in Ireland, he noted that the current inflation rate is one percentage point above the 2% target, and while it may look modest compared with the double-digit readings of 2022, it is still quite high by the usual logic of adjusting policy rates to shocks.
Dollar steadies near multi-month lows as rate hike bets dwindle
The U.S. dollar rose slightly on Tuesday but remained near multi-month lows as traders scaled back expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, while the threat of escalation in the Middle East war kept sentiment fragile. The euro eased from two-month highs to $1.157, sterling dipped 0.1% to $1.352 on weak UK labour data, and the dollar index traded 0.1% higher at 99.62. Traders now see a 35% chance of a September rate increase, down from 52% a week ago, and no longer fully price in a hike by year-end. Bond yields rose globally, with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields hitting their highest since 2007, as investors focused on inflation risks from the Strait of Hormuz closure and increased fiscal borrowing. Iran said it would shift to a fully offensive military posture after ceasefire talks stalled, while Brent crude touched $91.10 a barrel, its firmest since July 30.
US yen support mostly symbolic at $500M, Macquarie says
Macquarie says the US contribution to last month's joint yen intervention was mostly symbolic, estimating American authorities sold just $500 million of euro-yen on July 31. That compares with roughly $85 billion Japan is estimated to have sold in dollar-yen over July 30-31, making the US flow a drop in the ocean. Strategist Gareth Berry says the signaling effect was far more impactful than the size of the flow, and that the US Treasury and Fed still have $25.9 billion in euro-denominated reserves to deploy if the yen weakens again. The move marked Japan's biggest two-day intervention on record outside of October 2011.
Nordea expects ECB to deliver three more rate hikes
Nordea economists Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich expect the European Central Bank to deliver three additional 25 basis point rate hikes, taking the deposit rate to 3%. The forecast implies continued tightening as inflation remains a concern for the central bank.
Euro holds gains above 1.1550 after GDP and trade data
The euro held moderate gains against the US dollar on Friday, trading above 1.1550 after Eurozone GDP matched forecasts and the trade balance swung to a surprise surplus. Eurostat confirmed the economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter, following a flat first quarter, and expanded 1% year-on-year. The trade balance posted a surplus of €8.6 billion in June, reversing a €7.8 billion deficit in May and beating expectations of a €2.2 billion deficit. The dollar weakened broadly as recent US inflation data reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, with upcoming retail sales and University of Michigan sentiment data seen as unlikely to move the currency significantly.
Commerzbank warns ECB independence risks rise with debt
Commerzbank's Dr. Marco Wagner has assessed how political pressure threatens the European Central Bank's independence using a Central Bank Pressure Index based on AI analysis of politicians' statements. The analysis suggests that rising government debt levels increase the risk of political interference in the ECB's monetary policy decisions. Wagner's index quantifies the pressure exerted by politicians on the central bank, highlighting a growing concern for the ECB's ability to operate independently. The findings come as eurozone member states face elevated debt burdens following years of crisis spending.
ING says soft US CPI could lift EUR/USD despite gas and Gulf headwinds
Chris Turner at ING notes that EUR/USD remains lacklustre despite better Eurozone data and upside surprises, as high European natural gas prices and Gulf tensions weigh on the Euro. A soft US CPI print could support gains against the US Dollar.
UK budget uncertainty leaves sterling vulnerable against euro, says Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley warns that uncertainty around the UK budget leaves sterling vulnerable against the euro. The Burnham government's planned flexibility in fiscal rules and higher infrastructure spending could lead to increased gilt supply and tax speculation, weighing on the pound.
Euro drifts below 1.1550 as hopes of a swift US-Iran peace deal wane
The Euro nudged lower against the US Dollar on Tuesday, drifting below 1.1550 as hopes of a swift US-Iran peace deal waned. The stalemate in US-Iran negotiations and higher oil prices weighed on the currency, putting additional pressure on crude-importing eurozone economies.
European Markets Summary: Stocks Edge Higher, Bond Yields Rise, ECB Rate Hike Expectations Strengthen
European stocks edged higher on the 10th, with the STOXX Europe 600 index closing at a record high for the fifth consecutive trading day. Meanwhile, in eurozone bond markets, yields rose against a backdrop of higher oil prices, and financial markets are pricing in the view that the ECB's deposit rate will climb from the current 2.25% to around 2.7% by year-end, and be raised further to about 2.8% by March 2027. Crude oil futures gained after Iran stated that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz requires the US to meet conditions including compensation, lifting the oil and gas sector index. The London stock market fell back, with the FTSE 100 slightly lower and the mid-cap FTSE 250 index down 0.44%. Eurozone employment data and US CPI figures are due later this week, and are in focus for clues on the interest rate outlook.
Rabobank sees modest upside bias for euro against dollar on Fed repricing
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley says the euro has a modest upside bias against the US dollar, driven by a softer dollar after weak US labour data reduced Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.
US and Japan Stage First Joint Currency Intervention in 30 Years, Reshaping Global FX Markets
The United States and Japan have conducted a joint currency market intervention to support the yen for the first time since 1998, with a total size of around 87 billion dollars. The US sold euros to buy yen instead of trading directly through the dollar-yen pair. Analysts view this move as turning the yen into a kind of deterrent weapon against speculation, and it reflects how exchange rate policy is becoming more intertwined with geopolitics. The US government under President Donald Trump is ready to support the central banks of countries whose policy stances align with US interests, similar to the case when it helped prop up the Argentine peso in 2025 through a 20 billion dollar swap line from the Exchange Stabilization Fund. Investors are watching the impact on the yen carry trade, which may shift to using other currencies such as the euro as a funding source instead. Going forward, investors must assess government responses to currency moves as an additional key risk beyond economic fundamentals.
Dollar Retreats and Gold Rallies on Fed Rate Hike Doubts
The dollar index fell to a 7-week low and gold surged to a 7-week high after the US July payroll report showed an unexpected decline in nonfarm payrolls and weaker-than-expected wage growth, cutting the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 44% from 58%. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, the first decline in five months, while average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.3% forecast. The euro rallied to a 7-week high, supported by better-than-expected German trade data, and the yen strengthened as Treasury yields fell. Gold prices also found support after China’s central bank added 640,000 ounces to its reserves in July, the largest increase in more than two and a half years.
S&P 500 Hits Record High, Dollar Falls, Yields Drop After Unexpectedly Weak July US Jobs Report
In New York trading on the 7th, the S&P 500 index hit a fresh all-time high, the dollar fell against major currencies, and Treasury yields declined after the July US employment report came in unexpectedly weak. The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, defying market expectations for an increase, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent. However, the labor force participation rate slipped to 61.4 percent, near its lowest level in about five and a half years. The data pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing the probability of a September hike dropping to around 44 percent. The dollar fell 0.57 percent against the yen to 157.56 yen, while the euro rose 0.39 percent against the dollar to 1.1568 dollars. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, slipped 0.44 percent to 99.50. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 1.44 basis points to 4.656 percent, and the 2-year yield dropped 4.35 basis points to 4.202 percent. The S&P 500 closed 0.62 percent higher at 7,757.64, posting a weekly gain of 3.58 percent, its biggest since mid-April. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.30 percent to 26,690.62, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.28 percent to 54,036.93. Gold futures rose 2.3 percent to 4,399.70 dollars an ounce, a seven-week high, while crude oil futures extended gains amid Middle East uncertainty, with West Texas Intermediate crude up 89 cents at 78.18 dollars a barrel.
Dollar falls to mid-157 yen range as weak US jobs data dampens rate hike expectations
The dollar fell against major currencies in the New York foreign exchange market, with the dollar-yen pair dropping 0.57% to 157.56 yen. The July US employment report showed an unexpected decline of 23,000 in nonfarm payrolls from the previous month, and the past two months' figures were also revised sharply lower, causing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike to recede. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate edged down to 61.4%, near its lowest level in about five and a half years, highlighting weakness in the labor market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of rates being held steady at the September FOMC meeting rose to 56%. The euro-dollar pair gained 0.39% to 1.1568 dollars, and the dollar index fell 0.44% to 99.50.
Euro surges as weak US jobs report reverses Fed rate hike expectations
The euro surged against the US dollar after a much weaker-than-expected US employment report reversed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. EUR/USD jumped 0.43% on the day to trade around 1.1570 as the dollar came under heavy selling pressure.
BlackRock Says US Euro-Yen Intervention Adds Geopolitical Risk
BlackRock says the US decision to sell euros to buy yen without warning European policymakers is adding to geopolitical risks and further dimming the appeal of longer-maturity government bonds. James Turner, head of global fixed income for EMEA at the US asset manager, said the surprise maneuver shows countries are becoming a little less cooperative, making the firm very reluctant to take longer duration at the moment because of continued geopolitical risk and uncertainty at the long end. The US informed the European Central Bank only after the intervention was completed, the Financial Times reported.
Euro strengthens against Canadian Dollar after German industrial output beats forecasts
EUR/CAD rose to around 1.6160 during European trading on Friday, snapping a two-day losing streak, after data from Destatis showed German industrial output exceeded expectations. The stronger-than-expected production figures supported the Euro, which held its ground against the Canadian Dollar. The currency cross maintained its intraday gains as the European session progressed.
Commerzbank cuts EUR/USD forecast by two cents on rising Fed hike risk
Commerzbank has lowered its EUR/USD forecast by two cents across its entire horizon, citing increased perceived risks of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Analyst Michael Pfister notes that reduced expectations for Fed tightening have recently lifted EUR/USD, but warns that Kevin Warsh’s lack of forward guidance does not rule out rate increases and that stronger US labour data could shift expectations back toward tighter policy. The bank’s economists expect 100,000 new jobs in the upcoming report, above the Bloomberg consensus of 80,000, and a positive surprise would strongly suggest possible rate hikes. While Commerzbank still does not believe the Fed ultimately intends to hike, it sees the market continuing to bet on such a move, driving the forecast revision.
US intervened by selling euros without prior notice to ECB, European side calls it shocking and sparks controversy
The Financial Times reported that US monetary authorities did not notify the European Central Bank in advance about the yen-buying, euro-selling currency intervention conducted on July 31. Some senior ECB officials reportedly took issue with the United States selling euros rather than dollars, viewing it as an unprecedented act that breaks a long-standing cooperative relationship. Japanese and US authorities carried out a coordinated intervention that day, but the ECB only learned of the US authorities' euro-selling intervention after the fact. US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with ECB President Lagarde the following day, August 1, to discuss the intervention, but European sources expressed disappointment, calling it very shocking and regrettable, and voiced concern that the close cooperative relationship between US and European central banks could be threatened.
US reportedly intervened in FX market with yen buying and euro selling without prior notice to ECB
The Financial Times has reported that US monetary authorities did not give prior notice to the European Central Bank when they conducted yen-buying, euro-selling foreign exchange intervention on July 31. Some senior ECB officials reportedly took issue with the United States selling euros rather than dollars, viewing it as an unprecedented act that breaks a long-standing cooperative relationship. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with ECB President Christine Lagarde the following day, August 1, to discuss the intervention, but European sources expressed dismay, calling it very shocking and disappointing, and voiced concern that the close cooperative ties between the US and European central banks could be threatened.
Dollar Rallies on Solid US Economic News and Soaring Crude Prices
The dollar index rose 0.26% on Thursday, supported by favorable US economic data and a Financial Times report that Fed Chair Warsh is willing to raise interest rates at the September FOMC meeting if inflation firms and market expectations shift further towards tightening in the coming months. Weekly initial jobless claims increased by 1,000 to 199,000, below the 205,000 estimate, while second-quarter nonfarm productivity rose 1.4%, exceeding the 0.6% forecast, and unit labor costs gained 1.3%, less than the 2.1% expectation. The dollar also drew strength from a more than 2% jump in WTI crude oil prices, which lifted inflation expectations and reinforced hawkish Fed policy bets. The euro fell from a seven-week high, pressured by an unexpected 0.3% monthly drop in Eurozone June retail sales and the rise in oil prices, though losses were limited by a stronger-than-expected 3.1% monthly increase in German June factory orders. The yen weakened as higher crude prices and rising Treasury yields weighed on Japan’s import-dependent economy, even as Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would not hesitate to repeat forex market intervention to support the yen if needed. Gold and silver settled lower, with gold retreating from a seven-week high and silver from a one-month high, as a stronger dollar, higher oil-driven inflation expectations, and the Financial Times report on potential Fed tightening pressured precious metals.
ECB learned of US intervention to sell euros and buy yen only after trades were executed, FT reports
The European Central Bank only learned of the historic US currency intervention to sell euros and buy yen last week after the trades were executed, the Financial Times reported, citing multiple people familiar with the matter. Japan and the United States carried out an unusual coordinated yen-buying intervention on July 31 and indicated they would take further steps if needed to support the yen. Reuters has not been able to immediately confirm the report.
ECB raises rates for first time in two years and nine months, but euro buying and yen selling may be restrained
The European Central Bank decided on the 11th to raise its policy rate by 0.25%. This is the first rate hike in two years and nine months, since September 2023. The euro-dollar pair recovered to 1.2081 dollars in January 2026, and the euro-yen pair was bought up to 187.70 yen on April 15, 2026. However, the Bank of Japan decided at its June monetary policy meeting to raise rates from 0.75% to 1.0%, which could somewhat restrain risk-seeking euro buying and yen selling.
Dollar Rises in New York Forex Market, Hits Mid-158 Yen Range; Focus on US Jobs Data
The dollar rose against major currencies in the New York foreign exchange market, with the dollar-yen pair gaining 0.41 percent to 158.41 yen. Buying of the dollar as a safe-haven asset dominated ahead of talks between the US and Iran on ending hostilities and the release of the July US employment report on the 7th. The market is focused on the jobs data for clues on Federal Reserve monetary policy, and an ING currency strategist indicated that a strong report could prompt speculative dollar buying and yen selling to resume. The dollar index against six major currencies rose 0.32 percent to 99.98, while the euro fell 0.29 percent to 1.1519 dollars.