Cocoa Futures

Cocoa prices continued to recover on Wednesday, retracing more of Tuesday's sharp declines when both New York and London cocoa fell by more than 4% on reports of exceptional growing conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana. September ICE NY cocoa rose 10 points to settle up 0.18%, while September ICE London cocoa gained 10 points, up 0.24%. The recovery came despite data showing Ivory Coast farmers shipped 2.11 million metric tons of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year through August 2, up 20% from a year earlier, and Nigerian cocoa exports in June rose 30% year-over-year to 18,922 metric tons. Bullish factors included Ghana's cocoa regulator COCOBOD projecting 2026/27 production could fall to 450,000 to 550,000 metric tons from 750,000 metric tons projected for 2025/26 due to swollen shoot disease, aging farms, and possible El Niño weather, while StoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 metric tons from 149,000 metric tons in April. Cocoa demand was mixed in the second quarter, with European grindings falling 4.6% to 316,366 metric tons, North American grindings unexpectedly rising 7.7% to 109,659 metric tons, and Asian grindings jumping 25% to 224,646 metric tons.

Cocoa prices rebounded today as the outlook for declining West African production spurred fund buying. September ICE NY cocoa rose 72 dollars, or 1.25 percent, and September ICE London cocoa gained 5 pounds, or 0.12 percent, with London gains limited by a stronger British pound. Ghana’s cocoa regulator COCOBOD projected on July 30 that the country’s 2026-27 production could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tons from 750,000 metric tons projected for 2025-26, citing swollen shoot disease, aging farms, and likely adverse El Niño weather. Transgraph Consulting forecast on July 23 that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 metric tons in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected production decline to 4.87 million metric tons from 5.11 million metric tons. Early surveys of the 2026-27 Ivory Coast crop show below-average cherelle formation, with an average estimate of 1.8 million metric tons for the main harvest starting in September, down 18 percent from about 2.2 million metric tons in 2025-26. StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026-27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 metric tons from a forecast of 149,000 metric tons in April, citing El Niño risks to the West African crop. Larger supplies from Ghana, where 750,000 metric tons have been harvested for the 2025-26 season, up 25.6 percent from the prior year, and rising ICE inventories to a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags are bearish factors. Ivory Coast farmers shipped 2.11 million metric tons of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year through August 2, up 20 percent from a year ago, while Nigerian exports rose 30 percent in June. Second-quarter cocoa demand was mixed, with European grindings falling 4.6 percent to 316,366 metric tons, North American grindings unexpectedly rising 7.7 percent to 109,659 metric tons, and Asian grindings surging 25 percent to 224,646 metric tons.

Cocoa prices surged to two-week highs on Monday, with September ICE NY cocoa closing up 10.04% and September ICE London cocoa up 9.75%. The rally was driven by concerns over Ghana's cocoa production after COCOBOD projected the 2026/27 crop could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tons, down from 750,000 metric tons projected for 2025/26, due to swollen shoot disease, aging farms, and potential El Niño weather. Additional support came from potential global supply disruptions amid the near standstill of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. However, prices had recently dropped to one-month lows on signs of larger supplies, with Ivory Coast port arrivals up 20% year-on-year and Nigerian exports rising 30% in June, while ICE cocoa inventories reached a two-year high. Mixed demand signals included a 4.6% drop in European grindings but a 7.7% rise in North America and a 25% jump in Asia. Analysts have cut global surplus forecasts, with StoneX reducing its 2026/27 estimate to 25,000 metric tons and Transgraph Consulting projecting a surplus of 80,000 metric tons, down from 415,000 metric tons in 2025/26.

Cocoa prices settled higher on Wednesday as the market consolidated below last week's significant highs, with September ICE NY cocoa closing up 77 at a 1.33% gain and September ICE London cocoa up 34 at a 0.79% gain. Gains in London were limited by a rally in the British pound to a 7-week high, which undercuts cocoa priced in sterling. Traders now look to Thursday's Q2 cocoa grindings data from Asia, Europe, and North America for demand clues, with European grindings expected to fall 1.5% year-over-year, North American grindings expected to fall 1% year-over-year, but Asian grindings expected to jump 9% year-over-year. Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded roads and raised disease risks, threatening supplies, while Barry Callebaut reported its first sales increase in more than two years, signaling demand recovery. Rising ICE inventories to a 2-year high of 3,204,512 bags and a 21% year-over-year increase in Ivory Coast port shipments to 2.09 million metric tons in the current marketing year are bearish factors, but early surveys pointing to an 18% drop in the 2026/27 Ivory Coast main crop to 1.8 million metric tons provide support.

Cocoa prices settled sharply higher on Thursday, with New York cocoa hitting a six-month high and London cocoa reaching a nine-and-a-quarter-month high, after Barry Callebaut AG, the world's largest cocoa processor, reported a 5.7% rise in fiscal third-quarter sales volumes, the first increase in more than two years, signaling recovering demand. September ICE NY cocoa closed up 403, or 6.66%, and September ICE London cocoa closed up 312, or 6.94%. Prices have also rallied over the past three weeks as heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana flooded roads, cutting off farmers' access and threatening supplies, while excessive moisture raises the risk of crop diseases. Underlying support comes from the US Climate Prediction Center's warning that the emerging El Niño pattern will likely be one of the strongest in over 75 years, potentially bringing drier conditions to West Africa and stressing cocoa trees. Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast main crop show below-average cherelle formation and an average estimate of 1.8 million metric tons, down 18% from about 2.2 million metric tons in 2025/26. However, rising ICE cocoa inventories to a nearly two-year high of 3,135,943 bags and signs of larger supplies, including a 20% year-on-year increase in Ivory Coast port arrivals to 2.04 million metric tons this season, are bearish factors. Weak demand is also evident, with first-quarter North American cocoa grindings down 3.8% and European grindings down 7.8% to a 17-year low, though Asian grindings unexpectedly rose 5.2%. StoneX recently cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 149,000 metric tons from 267,000 metric tons, citing El Niño risks.