Barry Callebaut AG

Cocoa futures rallied sharply on Friday after North American second-quarter cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose 7.7% year-over-year to 109,659 metric tons, defying forecasts of a 1% decline and easing demand concerns. September ICE NY cocoa settled up 171, or 3.19%, and September ICE London cocoa gained 118, or 2.97%, as short covering emerged. The upbeat North American data contrasted with a 4.6% drop in European grindings to 316,366 metric tons, the lowest second-quarter level in six years, while Asian grindings surged 25% to 224,646 metric tons. Prices have also been supported by heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana that threaten supplies, and by a 5.7% sales increase at Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest cocoa processor. However, rising ICE inventories to a two-year high of 3,249,974 bags and a 30% jump in Nigerian June exports to 18,922 metric tons are capping gains.

Cocoa prices settled higher on Wednesday as the market consolidated below last week's significant highs, with September ICE NY cocoa closing up 77 at a 1.33% gain and September ICE London cocoa up 34 at a 0.79% gain. Gains in London were limited by a rally in the British pound to a 7-week high, which undercuts cocoa priced in sterling. Traders now look to Thursday's Q2 cocoa grindings data from Asia, Europe, and North America for demand clues, with European grindings expected to fall 1.5% year-over-year, North American grindings expected to fall 1% year-over-year, but Asian grindings expected to jump 9% year-over-year. Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded roads and raised disease risks, threatening supplies, while Barry Callebaut reported its first sales increase in more than two years, signaling demand recovery. Rising ICE inventories to a 2-year high of 3,204,512 bags and a 21% year-over-year increase in Ivory Coast port shipments to 2.09 million metric tons in the current marketing year are bearish factors, but early surveys pointing to an 18% drop in the 2026/27 Ivory Coast main crop to 1.8 million metric tons provide support.

Cocoa prices fell sharply on Friday as signs of robust supplies from the Ivory Coast sparked profit-taking and long liquidation. Cumulative data showed that farmers shipped 2.07 million metric tons of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year through July 5, up 21% from the same period a year ago. ICE cocoa inventories rose to a nearly two-year high of 3,151,790 bags, adding to the bearish sentiment. The decline came despite recent price rallies driven by heavy rains in West Africa and signs of recovering demand, with Barry Callebaut reporting a 5.7% rise in fiscal third-quarter sales, its first increase in more than two years.

Cocoa prices settled sharply higher on Thursday, with New York cocoa hitting a six-month high and London cocoa reaching a nine-and-a-quarter-month high, after Barry Callebaut AG, the world's largest cocoa processor, reported a 5.7% rise in fiscal third-quarter sales volumes, the first increase in more than two years, signaling recovering demand. September ICE NY cocoa closed up 403, or 6.66%, and September ICE London cocoa closed up 312, or 6.94%. Prices have also rallied over the past three weeks as heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana flooded roads, cutting off farmers' access and threatening supplies, while excessive moisture raises the risk of crop diseases. Underlying support comes from the US Climate Prediction Center's warning that the emerging El Niño pattern will likely be one of the strongest in over 75 years, potentially bringing drier conditions to West Africa and stressing cocoa trees. Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast main crop show below-average cherelle formation and an average estimate of 1.8 million metric tons, down 18% from about 2.2 million metric tons in 2025/26. However, rising ICE cocoa inventories to a nearly two-year high of 3,135,943 bags and signs of larger supplies, including a 20% year-on-year increase in Ivory Coast port arrivals to 2.04 million metric tons this season, are bearish factors. Weak demand is also evident, with first-quarter North American cocoa grindings down 3.8% and European grindings down 7.8% to a 17-year low, though Asian grindings unexpectedly rose 5.2%. StoneX recently cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 149,000 metric tons from 267,000 metric tons, citing El Niño risks.

Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the global confectionery ingredients sector, with major food manufacturers accelerating investments in AI-powered formulation platforms, predictive analytics, and quality control systems. Barry Callebaut partnered with NotCo AI to incorporate artificial intelligence into chocolate manufacturing and recipe development, while Mars is leveraging AI platforms through its MARI partnership with PIPA to identify novel bioactive, plant-based compounds. Kerry Group established a Digital Center of Excellence backed by an $8.9 million grant for AI-driven business performance optimization. Olam International collaborated with SAP to implement AI-enhanced supply chain solutions on AWS, addressing ingredient traceability and environmental monitoring. Givaudan invested in AI-based tool ATOM for optimized food and flavor formulation, and Symrise created the Symvision AI trend-prediction platform using deep learning and multisource data analysis. Growing consumer demand for sustainable, clean-label products is driving AI adoption to accelerate development of plant-based and personalized chocolate options, though high technology investment costs and limited data availability constrain implementation beyond early adopters.