American Airlines Group

Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are restoring more service to Israel, signaling growing confidence in a market that U.S. carriers have repeatedly pulled back from due to security concerns. Delta will restart daily New York-to-Tel Aviv flights on September 6, while United is adding San Francisco service next spring. Delta's restart is measured: its Atlanta-Tel Aviv service remains suspended until December 18, and Boston service until further notice. United plans three weekly flights between San Francisco and Tel Aviv beginning March 28, adding to its existing service from Newark, Chicago, and Washington Dulles. American Airlines, in contrast, has its Israel flights suspended through March 27, 2027, leaving Delta and United with less direct competition. For investors, Israel itself is unlikely to materially change either airline's overall earnings, but restoring service matters because long-haul international and premium travel are important revenue sources, and limited capacity can support pricing if demand remains resilient.

American Airlines reported record second-quarter revenue of $16.7 billion, up 16.3% year over year, driven by broad-based demand across premium, corporate, domestic, and international travel. However, fuel expense surged 83% to $4.88 billion, largely offsetting those gains and highlighting the key risk to profitability. Management expects an additional $1.7 billion in year-over-year fuel expense in the third quarter and guided to an adjusted loss per diluted share of $0.70 to $0.10 for the period, while full-year guidance ranges from a loss of $0.65 to a profit of $0.65 per share. The airline was able to recover roughly half of the fuel cost increase through stronger pricing, but the outlook remains uncertain as fuel volatility persists.

U.S. airlines are slashing earnings forecasts after renewed Middle East hostilities pushed jet fuel costs sharply higher. Southwest Airlines reported a $900 million year-over-year jump in second-quarter fuel expenses, a $1.17 headwind to adjusted earnings per share, and cut its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $3.25 to $4.25 from at least $4.00. American Airlines saw fuel expense surge over $2.2 billion, or 83%, and now expects full-year adjusted diluted EPS between a loss of $0.65 and earnings of $0.65, with a third-quarter loss of $0.10 to $0.70 per share. United Airlines anticipates nearly $6 billion in added fuel expense for full-year 2026 and reported a $2.3 billion, or 84%, jump in second-quarter fuel costs. The spike follows the collapse of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and a ceasefire, which reignited crude and fuel price rallies, while record U.S. fuel exports and tight global markets add further pressure.

American Airlines Group shares tumbled after the carrier warned that surging jet fuel prices are eroding profitability, overshadowing a stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings report. The airline reported record quarterly revenue of $16.7 billion, up 16.3% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings of $0.15 per share, beating Wall Street estimates, but net income fell sharply to $71 million from $599 million a year earlier as fuel expenses jumped more than $2.2 billion, or 83% year-over-year. Management now expects full-year adjusted earnings ranging from a loss of $0.65 per share to a profit of $0.65, a significant reduction from its prior outlook, and third-quarter adjusted EPS between a loss of $0.70 and $0.10. The stock fell 8.4% on July 23, extending its year-to-date decline to 5.6%, though it remains up 26.3% over the past 52 weeks. Analysts have a consensus Moderate Buy rating on the stock, with an average price target of $19.77, but Citigroup lowered its target to $19 from $22 and Melius Research downgraded the shares to Hold from Buy.

Lockheed Martin and American Airlines reported earnings the same day this week, revealing how the ongoing war involving Iran is creating clear winners and losers. Lockheed Martin raised its full-year sales guidance to a range of $79.75 billion to $81.75 billion and profit guidance to $29.95 to $30.65 a share, both beating Wall Street expectations, while its missile sales jumped about 20% to $4.1 billion and its order backlog hit a record $230.4 billion. American Airlines cut its 2026 earnings outlook to a range of a loss of 65 cents to a profit of 65 cents a share, worse than its prior forecast, as jet fuel costs surged 83% in the second quarter and fare increases covered only about half of the added fuel expense. Lockheed Martin's stock jumped as much as 10% on the news, while American Airlines shares fell about 8%. Hedge fund data showed that 83 funds held Lockheed Martin at the end of the first quarter of 2026, up from 59 the prior quarter, while American Airlines was held by just 42 funds, down from 49.

Tesla, Alphabet, and American Airlines were among the biggest stock losers on Thursday as investors reacted to a wave of technology earnings and escalating geopolitical tensions. Tesla shares fell 12% after the EV maker missed Q2 earnings expectations, with EPS of $0.33, an operating margin of 1.4%, and negative free cash flow of $1.1 billion overshadowing record quarterly revenue growth of 26% year-over-year. Alphabet dropped 6% as surging AI spending and higher capital expenditure guidance outweighed a strong Q2 earnings beat, with revenue climbing 25% to $119.8 billion but adjusted EPS missing estimates and free cash flow turning negative by $5.9 billion. American Airlines declined 7% despite a Q2 earnings beat after cutting its full-year profit outlook and issuing weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance, citing an 83% surge in fuel costs that is expected to drive a quarterly loss of $0.10 to $0.70 per share. On the gaining side, Hyliion surged 14% after securing a $41.7 million U.S. Navy contract, United Rentals jumped 13% on record revenue of $4.41 billion and raised guidance, Lockheed Martin rallied 11% after beating estimates and lifting its outlook on $65 billion in new orders, RTX gained 8% on strong demand and a record backlog of $289 billion, and ServiceNow rose 5% after beating estimates and highlighting ninefold growth in AI agent deployments.

Lockheed Martin is the clear favorite over American Airlines heading into their simultaneous second-quarter earnings reports on Thursday, July 23, 2026, according to a 24/7 Wall St. analysis. Lockheed Martin's diluted EPS guidance of $29.35 to $30.25 for fiscal 2026, a record $194 billion backlog, and 23 consecutive years of dividend increases contrast sharply with American Airlines' adjusted EPS guidance ranging from a loss of $0.40 to a profit of $1.10, $34.7 billion in total debt, and negative equity. Analyst consensus rates Lockheed Martin a Hold with a $606.68 price target, implying significant upside from its $507.09 close, while American Airlines lacks a clean forward earnings multiple and carries bearish social sentiment. Prediction market data gives Lockheed Martin a 57% chance of beating Q2 estimates and a 97.1% probability that its backlog stays above $170 billion. The analysis concludes that Lockheed Martin suits retirement-focused portfolios, whereas American Airlines remains a speculative bet tied to fuel costs and the airline cycle.

Zacks Investment Research added three stocks to its Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) list today. Albemarle, a specialty chemicals company, saw its current-year earnings consensus estimate revised 29.1% downward over the last 60 days. American Airlines, a network air carrier, had its estimate cut by 22.1%. Aquestive Therapeutics, a specialty pharmaceutical company, experienced a nearly 16.7% downward revision.

Delta Air Lines spent more than $4 billion on fuel in the second quarter as the war in Iran sent energy prices soaring. The airline's wholly owned oil refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania, helped recoup some of those costs, with its performance surging 83% to bring year-to-date revenue to $2.09 billion, essentially offsetting $0.11 per gallon of jet fuel cost. Jet fuel is typically one of the largest operating expenses for airlines, and US Gulf Coast jet fuel swaps remain roughly 60% above where they started the year. Delta recognized a $2 billion increase in fuel expenses for the quarter compared to the same period a year ago. The refinery, purchased from ConocoPhillips in 2012, provides Delta with 200,000 barrels per day of jet fuel through in-house production or swaps, approximately 75% of its consumption, and has served as a hedge against oil price spikes.

American Airlines Group shares are under fresh pressure after a spike in crude oil prices driven by renewed Middle East tensions, with the stock declining 5% amid a broader airline selloff. The carrier, trading around $16.51, carries high debt and negative shareholder equity, making it especially vulnerable to higher fuel costs that squeeze already thin margins. Recent index removals from several Russell value benchmarks may reduce passive ownership and amplify price swings, while insider selling and mixed analyst views signal limited risk tolerance. Investors are watching for updated guidance on unit costs and margins, as well as any capacity or route adjustments, ahead of the next earnings report.

American Airlines and United Airlines shares fell sharply after oil prices soared when President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over and threatened more strikes. American Airlines dropped 5.3% and United Airlines fell 3.9% as West Texas Intermediate crude surged 7.1% to $75.41 a barrel. Jet fuel is a critical expense for airlines, and higher crude directly increases cost per available seat mile, while renewed Middle East hostilities also raise risks of airspace closures and weaker consumer travel demand.

Wall Street analysts issued a flurry of ratings changes on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. Bank of America downgraded Adobe to Underperform from Buy with a $190 target, while Erste Group cut Broadcom to Hold from Buy. Meta Platforms was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Erste Group, and Shopify was reinstated with a Buy rating at Bank of America with a $150 target. Space Exploration Technologies, which recently completed a massive IPO and joins the Nasdaq-100 today, drew Buy initiations from Goldman Sachs at $205, UBS at $210, and Stifel at $190. Other notable moves include Cloudflare upgraded to Outperform at Scotiabank, First Solar raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, and American Airlines downgraded to Hold at Melius Research.

StockStory identifies Marvell Technology and Core & Main as cash-producing stocks with competitive advantages, while American Airlines is flagged as an underwhelming performer. Marvell Technology, with a trailing 12-month free cash flow margin of 19.1%, has posted 22.9% annual revenue growth over five years and is projected to grow revenue 45.5% in the next 12 months. Core & Main, with an 8% free cash flow margin, achieved 14.7% annual revenue growth over five years and expanded its free cash flow margin by 8.9 percentage points. American Airlines, with a 2% free cash flow margin, faces sluggish revenue passenger mile trends, shrinking returns on capital, and a high 7× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio.

Federal aviation regulators are preparing a rule that would require most aircraft operating in U.S. civilian airspace to use technology that helps pilots identify and track nearby aircraft, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. The proposal would expand the use of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast systems, requiring aircraft to both transmit their position and receive and display information from nearby planes. The move follows the January 2025 collision between a U.S. Army helicopter and an American Airlines regional jet near Washington's Reagan National Airport that killed 67 people, where investigators found the helicopter was not transmitting its position and neither aircraft was using the receiving capability. The FAA said no final decision has been made, but officials continue to evaluate measures to improve airspace safety.

American Airlines has returned 13.5% over the past six months, outpacing the S&P 500 by 7.3%, but our analysis flags three concerns that keep us on the sidelines. Revenue passenger miles reached 58.55 billion in the latest quarter, yet two-year average growth of 10.6% suggests soft demand that may pressure pricing or require costly product improvements. Return on invested capital has been declining by an average of 1 percentage point per year, signaling limited profitable growth opportunities. The company carries $34.53 billion in debt against just $7.29 billion in cash, resulting in a 7× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio that heightens financial risk. At a forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 7.8×, the stock appears fairly valued but lacks compelling upside relative to potential downside, leading us to prefer a top digital advertising platform instead.

Airline fares are unlikely to drop significantly until fall despite a decline in oil prices following the Iran agreement, according to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan. De Haan said airlines optimized capacity for high fuel prices and summer demand, so only a few deals on less utilized routes are expected, with a full drop in fares not coming until demand falls in mid-to-late August and more so in the fall when capacity exceeds demand. He noted that some international flights have already seen price drops, with fares from Chicago to Italy falling from over $1,200 to under $800. Analysts have also pointed to strong demand and the recent collapse of Spirit Aviation Holdings as factors keeping ticket prices elevated, while shipping costs have surged due to uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate crude below $70 at $69.87 per barrel and Brent crude at $72.98 per barrel, while jet fuel cost $2.83 per gallon and the national average for gas was $3.918 per gallon.