GF Securities Co Ltd

GF Securities expects Marvell Technology to raise its full-year guidance when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Thursday, Aug. 27, citing the chipmaker's expanding relationships with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google. Analyst Alicia Xia forecasts second-quarter revenue up 12% quarter-over-quarter and non-GAAP gross margin of about 59%, above the Bloomberg consensus of 58.8%. For the third quarter, she models 13% sequential revenue growth versus consensus of 11%, and for fiscal 2027 she sees a likely increase from the current $11.5 billion guidance. Xia also raised her full-year fiscal 2027 EPS estimate to $4.12 from $4.09 and fiscal 2028 to $7.75 from $7.57.

GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu said Intel's recently expanded stock offering, which raised $20 billion after initially targeting $15 billion, may point to improving manufacturing yields and deeper engagement with outside customers. The financing, with an additional underwriting option potentially taking gross proceeds to $23 billion, comes as Intel increases spending on manufacturing capacity and advanced chip technologies. Pu expects Intel's foundry business to reach breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2027, followed by margin improvement in 2028. He also expects Intel to expand customers for its EMIB packaging technology, citing potential demand from companies including Google and Amazon Web Services. Pu maintained a Buy rating and $136 price target.

A total of 167 listed companies in Guangdong have disclosed their earnings forecasts for the first half of 2026, accounting for 36% of all listed companies in the region. Nearly half of these companies are projecting rapid growth, over 30% are maintaining profitability with year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 50%, and 20 companies are turning losses into profits. Based on the average of the upper and lower limits of the pre-disclosed net profits, the combined net profit of the 167 companies is approximately 42.87 billion yuan. The total net profit of companies forecasting a profit amounts to 58.09 billion yuan. Fifteen companies expect to earn over 1 billion yuan, with GF Securities anticipating a profit of 11 billion to 12 billion yuan. The electronics sector has become the engine of earnings growth for manufacturing companies. The 25 pre-disclosed electronics companies report a combined net profit of about 12.49 billion yuan. TCL Technology forecasts a profit of 3.7 billion to 3.92 billion yuan, and Shengyi Technology expects a profit of approximately 3.1 billion to 3.3 billion yuan. The lithium battery industry has seen a significant recovery. EVE Energy is forecasting a profit of 3.13 billion to 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 95% to 110%. Tinci Materials expects a profit of 2.7 billion to 3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth exceeding nine times.

Chinese authorities have stepped up stock market stabilisation measures by mobilising financial institutions and state-backed entities to support the market, aiming to stem selling in technology and semiconductor shares. The ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF, the largest exchange-traded fund tracking the STAR 50 Index, saw a record inflow of 13.8 billion yuan on Monday. While the source of the funds could not be identified, the size of the inflow has led the market to believe it was a purchase by government entities. Meanwhile, the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, a fund regularly used by China's national team to buy stocks, recorded an inflow of 12.6 billion yuan, less than the STAR 50 ETF. In addition, at least five major insurers announced increased investments in the stock market. China Life Insurance purchased stocks and funds worth over 10 billion yuan and raised its allocation to future industries. PICC and Ping An Insurance also declared a similar stance. Bosera Fund Management invested 50 million yuan of its own capital into its in-house equity funds, and GF Securities increased its margin lending quota by 90 billion yuan. The moves come amid selling pressure that has pushed the STAR 50 Index down more than 21 percent from its June peak, and as the market braces for the major IPO of CXMT Corp.

The first-half 2026 earnings preview for Shenzhen-listed non-bank financial companies shows that over 80% of firms posted earnings growth exceeding 50%, with the industry's overall profitability improving significantly. GF Securities expects net profit attributable to shareholders of 11 billion to 12 billion yuan, up 70% to 85% year-on-year. Changjiang Securities expects net profit of 3.126 billion to 3.3 billion yuan, up 80% to 90%, hitting a new record high. Yuexiu Capital expects net profit of 2.727 billion to 3.039 billion yuan, up 75% to 95%. Northeast Securities achieved net profit of 764 million yuan, up 77.49%. Huaxi Securities expects net profit growth of 65.96% to 105.01%. Companies are making all-out efforts across core businesses such as wealth management, investment trading, and asset management, demonstrating strong growth resilience and development vitality.

As of July 15, 73 securities firms have issued a combined total of more than 1.35 trillion yuan in onshore bonds since the start of 2026, a year-on-year increase of over 96%. Recently, a number of listed brokers including China Merchants Securities, GF Securities, Guolian Minsheng, Soochow Securities, and Zhongtai Securities have received intensive approvals from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue large corporate bonds, while Shenwan Hongyuan obtained registration approval for perpetual subordinated bonds in July. In a low interest rate environment, enthusiasm for broker bond subscriptions is running high. Taking China Galaxy Securities as an example, the first tranche of its fifth corporate bond issue carried a coupon rate of 1.60% with a subscription multiple of 3.8722 times, while the second tranche had a coupon rate of 1.67% and a subscription multiple of 3.165 times. At the same time, the credit ratings of bonds issued by several brokers, including Northeast Securities, Great Wall Securities, Huaan Securities, and Zheshang Securities, have been upgraded from AA+ to AAA. Fitch also raised the long-term issuer default ratings of CICC and CICC International from BBB+ to A-. Analysts point out that this surge in bond issuance is not only about capital replenishment, but also serves as strategic capital support amid a wave of mergers and acquisitions. Leading institutions are using bond financing to pre-position M&A capital in advance, forming a chain of integration, bond issuance, and further expansion, while small and medium-sized brokers face increasing pressure from financing difficulties.

As of July 15, 21 listed brokers have released their 2026 first-half performance forecasts, with 20 reporting positive results. CITIC Securities expects its net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be at least approximately 23.343 billion yuan, continuing to lead listed brokers. Guotai Haitong follows closely, with an estimated net profit of 20.003 billion to 20.511 billion yuan. Huatai Securities, GF Securities, and China Merchants Securities all anticipate net profit floors exceeding 10 billion yuan, at approximately 11.324 billion, 11 billion, and 10 billion yuan respectively. In terms of growth, Tianfeng Securities expects its net profit to increase by 429.03 percent year-on-year, ranking first among brokers that have disclosed forecasts. Additionally, Xiangcai Co., Ltd., Huachuang Yunxin, Zhongtai Securities, and Huaan Securities expect their net profits to double year-on-year. The industry as a whole is improving, with A-share trading volume in the first half of 2026 rising 95 percent year-on-year, and revenue from brokerage, proprietary trading, and other businesses expected to grow significantly.

GF Securities has released its 2026 half-year performance forecast, estimating net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company at 11 billion to 12 billion yuan for the first half, representing a year-on-year increase of 70% to 85%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected at 11.19 billion to 12.19 billion yuan, up 77% to 93% year-on-year. The company stated that the profit growth was driven by favorable capital market conditions and year-on-year increases in revenue from wealth management, trading and institutional services, investment management, and investment banking. Among the 21 listed companies that have already released 2026 half-year earnings forecasts, GF Securities' maximum net profit of 12 billion yuan ranks behind only CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan Haitong. CITIC Securities expects first-half net profit of 23.343 billion yuan, while Guotai Junan Haitong forecasts net profit of 20.003 billion to 20.511 billion yuan. GF Securities' minimum net profit is lower than that of Huatai Securities, which expects first-half net profit of 11.324 billion to 11.702 billion yuan.

Zhejiang Headman Machinery announced on July 3, 2026 that it has signed a sponsorship agreement with GF Securities, appointing it as the sponsor for its 2026 A-share private placement. Under relevant regulations, when a company applies to issue securities again and engages a new sponsor, it must terminate the sponsorship agreement with the original sponsor, and the new sponsor will take over any remaining continuous supervision duties from the original sponsor. As a result, Guolian Minsheng Securities will no longer perform the corresponding continuous supervision responsibilities. GF Securities has appointed Mr. Guo Liangliang and Ms. Fan Liqin as the sponsor representatives for this issuance, responsible for the sponsorship and continuous supervision work related to this offering.

GF Securities downgraded Dell Technologies shares on June 25, sending the stock down over 9% and making it one of the S&P 500's biggest losers that day. The downgrade follows a nearly 200% rally since Dell's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings in late February 2026, with year-to-date gains nearing 240% and 52-week gains above 260%. Despite the downgrade, Dell's AI server business posted 757% year-over-year growth last quarter, and first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue hit a record $43.8 billion, up 88% year-over-year. Analysts remain largely positive, with a consensus 'Moderate Buy' rating and an average price target of $487.18, implying about 22% upside from current levels. The company also recently secured a $9.7 billion, five-year deal with the U.S. Department of Defense.