US Dollar/Philippine Peso FX Spot Rate

This week in ASEAN, Thailand and Myanmar are deepening energy cooperation by discussing the renewal of a gas purchase agreement from existing sources and studying investment in new petroleum fields such as A6, while preparing a new memorandum of understanding covering exploration, production, gas trading, and power grid interconnection. Meanwhile, the Philippine central bank has not ruled out further interest rate hikes even though the latest quarterly GDP grew only 2.3 percent, the lowest in ASEAN. Singapore has raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 4.5 to 5.5 percent from the previous 2 to 4 percent, supported by global AI investment that helped the manufacturing sector expand 12.5 percent. The Philippines plans to borrow about 3.3 trillion pesos, or 54 billion dollars, in 2027, equivalent to 46 percent of the budget, to stimulate the economy. At the same time, SpaceX's Starlink has begun accepting orders for satellite internet service in Vietnam, with starting fees of 1.13 million dong, or about 43 dollars per month. Vietnam's central bank also warned that a funding gap of about 76.8 billion dollars could pressure liquidity, interest rates, and the currency.

Philippine central bank Governor Eli Remolona said the central bank is ready to tighten monetary policy further to bring inflation back to target, even as the economy slows, stressing that its main mission is to maintain price stability. The signal comes ahead of the next rate-setting meeting on August 27, after it has already raised rates by 0.50% this year. Meanwhile, gross domestic product in the second quarter grew just 2.3% year-on-year, slowing from 2.8% in the first quarter and below analyst expectations of 2.8%, marking the slowest growth since the end of 2009, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period.

ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song warn that upside inflation risks are re-emerging for the Philippine Peso, driven by recovering oil prices and expectations of a strong El Niño that could spark a food-price shock. Rising global rice and fertiliser prices add to pressures.

MUFG says the South Korean won, Thai baht, Singapore dollar, and to a smaller extent the Philippine peso are the main Asian FX beneficiaries if Japanese yen strength persists, given their higher sensitivity to USD/JPY.