Polysilicon Futures (GFEX)

Daqo New Energy released its half-year report, showing first-half operating revenue of only 623 million yuan, down 57.63 percent year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of negative 1.595 billion yuan, with the loss widening from the same period last year. The company's polysilicon sales volume was only 19,700 tonnes, less than half of the year-earlier level, and the average selling price was 30.63 yuan per kilogram, below the cost of sales of 60.69 yuan per kilogram and the cash cost of 34.75 yuan per kilogram. As of the end of the first half, the company's asset-liability ratio was only 7.87 percent, and its cash reserves including monetary funds totalled 10.419 billion yuan. In June this year, Daqo New Energy announced a 6 billion yuan investment to build a smart energy system manufacturing base in Kunshan and enter the computing power sector, with the first phase involving investment of 2.1 billion yuan.

The United States, under President Donald Trump, has signed an executive order setting a 15% import tariff on products made from polysilicon, along with minimum import prices for related raw materials and products, effective from December 4. The measure relies on Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, citing national security grounds. The minimum import prices range from pure polysilicon at 21 dollars per kilogram, ingots and wafers at 100 dollars per kilogram, solar cells at 0.22 dollars per watt, to solar panels at 0.38 dollars per watt. The US once accounted for nearly 50% of global polysilicon production in 2005, but that share fell below 2% in 2024, while China has become almost the sole market monopolist. The Chinese government condemned the measure and signalled it is preparing countermeasures.

The financial markets group at Siam Commercial Bank estimates the baht will move in a range of 32.95 to 33.20 per dollar today. The baht strengthened rapidly in line with higher gold prices after buying increased when prices broke through a key resistance level, together with Iran revealing it had reached an agreement with Oman on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil prices to continue falling. In addition, Thailand's July inflation came in at 1.95 percent compared with the same period last year, slowing from 2.42 percent the previous month and coming in below market expectations. Meanwhile, the United States is preparing to impose import tariffs and set a minimum price for polysilicon imports to promote domestic production using the material.

SCB Financial Markets expects the baht to move in a range of 32.95 to 33.20 per dollar today. The baht strengthened rapidly in line with higher gold prices after buying picked up when prices broke through a key resistance level, while Iran disclosed that it had reached an agreement with Oman on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil prices lower. Thailand’s July inflation came in at 1.95 percent year-on-year, slowing from 2.42 percent in the previous month and below market expectations. Meanwhile, the United States is preparing to impose import tariffs and set a minimum price for polysilicon imports to boost domestic production using the material.

The financial markets group at Siam Commercial Bank assesses that the baht today is moving in a range of 32.95 to 33.20 per dollar. The baht has strengthened rapidly in line with higher gold prices after buying increased when prices broke through a key resistance level. This comes as Iran disclosed that it reached an agreement with Oman on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to continued low crude oil prices. Meanwhile, Thailand's inflation in July stood at 1.95 percent compared with the same period last year, slowing from the previous month's 2.42 percent and coming in below market expectations. In the United States, preparations are underway to impose import tariffs and set a minimum price for polysilicon imports to promote domestic production using the material.

China's solar industry is accelerating the cleanup of long-idle zombie projects. As of early August, 1,266 solar projects nationwide have been included in the purge, spanning provinces such as Anhui, Sichuan, and Guizhou. Anhui Province has become a region with relatively strong rectification efforts. Since July, a total of 789 projects have been planned for cleanup or termination. Among them, Nanling County in Wuhu City has initiated termination and deregistration for 44 long-pending projects and 847 idle solar installations. Lujiang County in Hefei City has cleaned up 354 long-pending projects. Wuwei City plans to deregister 181 installations that have not generated power for more than six consecutive months. The industry's long-standing practice of securing land without building has led to ineffective occupation of land and grid resources. Now, the assessment focus is shifting toward fixed-asset investment, actual power generation, and tax contributions. At the same time, the solar industry faces supply-demand imbalances and cutthroat price competition. Among 26 listed solar companies that have disclosed half-year earnings forecasts, only four are profitable. The industry's combined losses range from 18.3 billion to 21.4 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, new solar installations dropped about 66 percent year on year. On the policy front, a comprehensive regulatory framework is taking shape. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has officially released the General Principles for the Solar Industry Cost Accounting Model. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have also issued a series of mandatory national standards covering key segments such as polysilicon, wafers, modules, and inverters, promoting the phase-out of inefficient capacity and the return of prices to reasonable levels.

China's Ministry of Commerce issued a statement on the 27th demanding the full repeal of additional tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under Section 301 of the Trade Act. In remarks by a spokesperson, it criticized the measures as unilateral and indicated a willingness to take countermeasures. It denied the forced labor issue cited as the basis for the tariffs, stating that it does not exist in China, and expressed the view that it is merely a political pretext. The US Trade Representative's investigation report had cited cotton from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and polysilicon used in solar panel raw materials as examples of forced labor products.

Hongyuan Green Energy disclosed its earnings forecast, expecting a net loss attributable to shareholders of 590 million to 690 million yuan in the first half of 2026, compared with a loss of 297 million yuan in the same period last year. The net loss after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 400 million to 500 million yuan, compared with a loss of 356 million yuan a year earlier. The company stated that the phased supply-demand mismatch in the photovoltaic industry has not been fundamentally resolved, and prices of some products in the industry chain have dropped significantly from the beginning of the year. The average price of dense polysilicon fell from 52.0 yuan per kilogram at the start of the year to 32.5 yuan per kilogram at the end of the reporting period, while the average price of monocrystalline N-type wafers dropped from 1.40 yuan per piece to 0.88 yuan per piece, significantly squeezing corporate profit margins. Facing these challenges, the company will continue to promote technological iteration and upgrading, accelerate its global strategic layout, and advance production lines toward high-efficiency technology platforms.