Brinker International Inc

Brinker International reported second-quarter results that were well received, with management highlighting continued momentum at Chili's as the primary growth engine. Revenue came in at $1.54 billion versus analyst estimates of $1.53 billion, while adjusted EPS of $3.07 slightly missed expectations of $3.09. The company issued adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal 2027 of $13 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 3.9%. CEO Kevin D. Hochman credited sustained traffic and sales gains to improvements in guest experience, value leadership, and product launches like the Big Crispy Chicken Sandwich.

Analysts are raising earnings estimates for Brinker International, the operator of Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy, signaling growing optimism about the company's prospects. For the current quarter, the consensus estimate has increased 5.2% over the last 30 days to $2.29 per share, with three upward revisions and no negative ones. For the full year, the consensus estimate rose 6.28% to $12.77 per share, supported by seven upward revisions and no negative revisions. The stock has gained 24% over the past four weeks, and Brinker International currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Brinker International shares jumped Wednesday after the Chili's parent reported mixed fiscal fourth-quarter results but issued a stronger-than-expected fiscal 2027 outlook. The company posted adjusted earnings of $3.07 per share, narrowly missing the $3.09 analyst estimate, while total revenue rose to $1.536 billion from $1.462 billion a year earlier, edging past the $1.534 billion estimate. For fiscal 2027, Brinker expects adjusted earnings of $12.60 to $13.40 per share, above the $12.52 analyst estimate, and revenue of $6.15 billion to $6.27 billion, compared with the $6.145 billion estimate. CEO Kevin Hochman said Chili's ended fiscal 2026 with five straight years of same-store sales growth, producing a 71% cumulative increase over that period, and called takeout Chili's next big frontier, with takeout already accounting for 25% of Chili's business. The company also repurchased about $400 million of common stock during fiscal 2026 and increased the amount authorized under its existing share repurchase program to $750 million.

Brinker International CEO Kevin Hochman declared the Chili's turnaround is real during the company's latest earnings call. Since 2022, Hochman has improved food quality and service, introduced operational efficiencies, and reduced menu options to focus on burgers, fajitas, and baby back ribs, positioning Chili's as an affordable sit-down alternative to fast food. The chain's viral TikTok cheese-pull in fall 2024 powered a 70% surge in Triple Dipper appetizer sales, and marketing campaigns continue to bolster same-store sales. Chili's reported an 18% restaurant-level operating margin, up 20 basis points year-over-year, and management aims to reach closer to 20% through initiatives like HotSchedules and simplified shift line checks. The company has assembled a 'North of 6' team of top managers to replicate the success of its highest-performing restaurants.

Brinker International moved back into focus after issuing fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of US$6.15b to US$6.27b, alongside fresh earnings results and an expanded share repurchase authorization. At a share price of US$238.61, the stock has returned 28.75% over the past 30 days and 73.89% over 90 days, with a one-year total shareholder return of 50.94%. The most followed valuation narrative pegs the stock as about 20.1% overvalued versus a fair value of $198.67, though on simple earnings terms it trades at a P/E of 21x, below the US Hospitality industry at 23.1x. The company continues to face pressure from rising labor and commodity costs and a consumer shift toward off-premise dining.

Brinker International shares have climbed 11.4% to $185.23 over the past six months, closely tracking the S&P 500's 8.4% gain. The company has posted exceptional average same-store sales growth of 15.5% over the last two years, signaling strong demand at existing locations. With $5.73 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, Brinker benefits from economies of scale and a well-known brand. However, its restaurant count has remained flat at 1,632 locations over the same period, which could limit future revenue growth. The stock trades at 15.2 times forward earnings.

StockStory identified Brinker International, e.l.f. Beauty, and Boeing as profitable companies balancing reliable profits with growth. Brinker International reported a trailing 12-month GAAP operating margin of 10.4%, with average same-store sales growth of 15.5% over two years and revenue of $5.73 billion. e.l.f. Beauty posted a 4.5% operating margin, annual revenue growth of 41.4% over three years, and a gross margin of 71%. Boeing recorded a 4.6% operating margin, unit sales growth averaging 69.7% over two years, and forecasted revenue growth of 10.4% for the next 12 months.

Zacks Equity Research identifies Dutch Bros, Brinker International, BJ's Restaurants, and Arcos Dorados as four restaurant stocks well-positioned to navigate ongoing industry challenges. The Zacks Retail-Restaurants industry faces pressure from elevated menu prices, cautious consumer spending, and rising labor, food, and occupancy costs, yet operators benefit from sustained demand for convenience, expanding digital platforms, and new restaurant openings. The industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 181, placing it in the bottom 27% of more than 247 industries, and has declined 8% over the past year while the S&P 500 rose 22.8%. Dutch Bros is expected to see 2026 sales and earnings rise 27.1% and 22.4% year over year, respectively, while Brinker International's fiscal 2026 sales and earnings are projected to increase 7.9% and 20.8%. BJ's Restaurants anticipates 2026 sales growth of 2.7% but an earnings decline of 2.2%, and Arcos Dorados forecasts sales and earnings jumps of 10% and 180.8%.

StockStory highlights two restaurant stocks worth attention and one facing challenges. Wingstop demonstrates strong same-store sales growth and a 25.9% two-year operating margin, while Brinker International achieved 15.5% same-store sales growth and rising returns on capital. In contrast, Wendy's struggles with weak same-store sales trends, flat revenue expectations, and a high net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7 times. Wingstop trades at 33.6 times forward P/E and Brinker at 14.8 times, compared to Wendy's at 13.2 times.

Brinker International shares moved higher after Jim Cramer expressed optimism about the company. The stock closed 14.5% higher on April 29 following its fiscal third-quarter earnings report, which showed revenue of $1.47 billion meeting estimates and adjusted earnings of $2.90 per share beating the $2.87 consensus. Cramer praised CEO Kevin Hochman's management, noting the company has cattle prices under control and highlighting its $10 meal offering. On the earnings call, management acknowledged ongoing beef price pressure but pointed to a varied menu that includes chicken, expecting mid-single-digit commodity inflation to persist into fiscal 2027.

StockStory highlights Brinker International as a value stock with solid fundamentals, while flagging Teladoc and Jack in the Box as stocks to avoid. Brinker International, trading at $177.68 per share with a forward P/E of 14.5x, has posted average same-store sales growth of 15.5% over the past two years and generates $5.73 billion in revenue, giving it scale and bargaining power. In contrast, Teladoc faces flat sales and a 9% annual decline in average revenue per user, and Jack in the Box is dealing with weak same-store sales and restaurant closures.

Brinker International was added to both the Russell 2000 Growth-Defensive Index and the Russell 2000 Defensive Index in late June 2026, while its Chili’s brand launched a new Bombshell Margarita of the Month promotion across US restaurants. The index inclusions may attract incremental institutional capital and index-linked flows, adding visibility alongside favorable Wall Street analyst views. Brinker’s narrative projects $6.7 billion revenue and $609.9 million earnings by 2029, requiring 5.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $147 million earnings increase from $462.9 million today. Some optimistic analysts already forecast revenue around $6.7 billion and earnings of about $625 million by 2029, though rising labor and commodity costs remain a key risk in the competitive casual dining market.

Brinker International closed at $172.07, up 2.42%, outperforming the S&P 500 which lost 0.22%. The operator of Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy has risen 21.56% over the past month, contrasting with a 5.51% decline in the Retail-Wholesale sector. The company is expected to report earnings per share of $3.08, a 23.69% increase from the prior-year quarter, on revenue of $1.53 billion. Full-year consensus estimates project earnings of $10.75 per share and revenue of $5.81 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 20.79% and 7.89% respectively. Brinker International holds a Zacks Rank of 2, or Buy, and trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.63, a discount to its industry average of 20.37.

Brinker International shares have gained 18.3% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.9% decline and the 1.6% gain in the Zacks Retail-Restaurants industry. The consensus earnings estimate for the current quarter stands at $3.08 per share, a 23.8% year-over-year increase, and has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. For the current fiscal year, the estimate is $10.75, up 20.8%, while the next fiscal year's estimate is $12.42, a 15.6% rise, both also unchanged. The company reported revenues of $1.47 billion in its latest quarter, a 3.2% increase, with EPS of $2.90 beating the consensus by 1.75%. Brinker International holds a Zacks Rank of 3, or Hold, and a Value Style Score of B, indicating it trades at a discount to peers.

Brinker International shares rose 3.4% after WTI crude fell below $70 per barrel, easing pressure on consumer wallets. Oil prices dropped 3% to their lowest since early March, acting as a de facto tax cut for middle- and lower-income consumers. The broader restaurant sector, including quick-service and casual dining names like McDonald's and Darden, benefited from the macro tailwind. Cheaper energy provides a much-needed catalyst for traffic recovery, though wage inflation remains a risk to restaurant operating margins. Brinker's CEO recently expressed confidence, citing 20 consecutive quarters of comparable sales growth at Chili's, and an analyst at TD Cowen raised the price target to $192.