Commerce.com, Inc.

Commerce.com reported second-quarter revenue of $84.5 million, up 0.1% year over year, and non-GAAP operating income of $8.1 million, above its guidance range, but lowered its full-year 2026 revenue outlook by $18 million at the midpoint to between $336.5 million and $344.5 million. The company cited a deliberate strategy to concentrate its partner ecosystem, increased R&D investment in AI and product intelligence, and a more cautious view of second-half new account bookings amid soft B2C replatforming activity. Gross merchandise volume grew 14% to $8.8 billion, with B2B GMV up 17%, and net revenue retention improved sequentially for the third straight quarter to 95.8%. Full-year non-GAAP operating income guidance was reduced by $12.5 million at the midpoint to between $28 million and $34 million, reflecting targeted investments and higher infrastructure costs from AI-driven traffic. The company ended the quarter with $157.5 million in cash and marketable securities and remains on track for full-year GAAP profitability.

The fair value estimate for Commerce.com has been reduced from $5.05 to $4.40 following a cut in full-year revenue guidance. Canaccord moved the stock to Hold from Buy and lowered its price target to $3 from $6, noting that the company reduced the midpoint of its full-year revenue guidance by $18 million, pointing to a modest revenue growth decline for the current year. UBS maintains a Neutral rating with a $3.50 price target, citing intense competition, slower monetization, and limited near-term revenue catalysts. The revised fair value reflects a revenue growth assumption lowered from 4.43% to 2.57%, a net profit margin assumption trimmed from 11.83% to 11.45%, a future P/E multiple adjusted from 13.0x to 12.8x, and a discount rate increased from 10.92% to 11.90%.

Shares of Health Catalyst, Commerce, and Paycom declined in afternoon trading as tech stocks faced pressure from rising oil prices and an unwinding of retail leverage. Health Catalyst fell 2.2%, Commerce dropped 1.5%, and Paycom slid 2.8%. The selloff was driven by a reinstated U.S. naval blockade on Iran that pushed Brent crude above $85 a barrel, fueling expectations the Federal Reserve will hold rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range and raising the cost of capital for software firms. Paycom, which is down 3.5% year-to-date and trading 38.4% below its 52-week high, saw its move considered meaningful but not fundamentally business-altering by the market.

E-commerce software stocks reported mixed first-quarter results, with aggregate revenues beating analyst consensus by 1.7% but next-quarter revenue guidance coming in 0.5% below expectations. GoDaddy posted revenue of $1.27 billion, up 6.1% year on year and in line with estimates, while Commerce exceeded expectations with $86.84 million in revenue, a 5.4% increase. Wix reported $541.2 million, up 14.3% and matching estimates, and Shopify led with $3.17 billion, a 34.3% jump that beat forecasts by 2.5%. Despite the beats, share prices across the group have fallen an average of 17.4% since reporting, with Wix down 44.5%, Shopify down 12.2%, GoDaddy down 8.4%, and Commerce down 4.7%.

Shares of Asana, Commerce, and Five9 declined in afternoon trading as a broader selloff hit the software sector, driven by fears that AI agents will erode traditional subscription models. Asana fell 4.7%, Commerce dropped 5.1%, and Five9 slid 5.6%, with the weakness compounded by a nearly 6% decline in Alphabet and a slip in Microsoft. The market's anxiety was reinforced by Accenture's near-20% single-day drop the previous week after it cut its growth outlook and cited AI compressing demand for IT services. Five9, which is down 1.3% year-to-date and trading 36.3% below its 52-week high, also faced pressure from the release of new Anthropic AI models and geopolitical tensions after a US Apache helicopter went down near Oman.

Commerce.com, Inc. has twice rejected an all-stock merger proposal from Rezolve AI. The initial offer of one Rezolve share for each Commerce.com share was unanimously turned down by the board, as was a revised offer of one Rezolve share for two Commerce.com shares. Rezolve AI criticized the board for failing to protect shareholder value, noting that Commerce.com shares have lost more than 96% of their value under current leadership and that annual recurring revenue growth has slowed to 3% year over year, with the board forecasting 1.5% growth.

StockStory identifies Commerce, Health Catalyst, and Teradata as software stocks that may face trouble. Commerce posted underwhelming annual recurring revenue growth of 2.5% and projected sales growth of 3.3%, with its free cash flow margin expected to shrink by 3.2 percentage points. Health Catalyst saw flat billings and a gross margin of 50.4%, one of the worst among software companies, alongside long payback periods on sales and marketing. Teradata recorded average billings growth of 3.7% and a 7.2 percentage point drop in operating margin, with its free cash flow margin projected to decline by 20.2 percentage points next year.