CF Industries Holdings Inc

CF Industries Holdings is grappling with rising natural gas costs that threaten its margins despite healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand and higher prices. The company's average natural gas cost climbed to $3.31 per MMBtu in 2025 from $2.40 a year earlier, and further increased to $4.57 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026 from $3.68 in the prior-year period, driving up cost of sales. Peers Nutrien and Mosaic are also contending with elevated input costs, including sulfur and ammonia, which have compressed phosphate margins and are expected to exert additional pressure in the second quarter. CF Industries stock has risen 11.7% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry's 5.2% decline, and trades at a forward earnings multiple of 7.15, a 34.1% discount to the industry average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects an 83.1% year-over-year jump in 2026 earnings followed by a 34.9% decline in 2027, with estimates for both years trending higher over the past 60 days.

BHP Group is increasing its total investment in the Jansen Stage 2 potash project to $6.9 billion, up from a previous estimate of $4.9 billion, following a detailed review. The higher cost reflects a delay in first production to late fiscal 2031, cost escalation, increased material quantities, and extra construction hours. As of May 31, 2026, the project is 16% complete with engineering 83% finished, and it is expected to produce 4.36 million tons per annum with an internal rate of return of 11% and an eight-year payback period. BHP will recognize $2.3 billion in impairment charges due to higher forecasted capital intensity for both stages and potential future expansions. The company is also advancing Jansen Stage 1 toward first production by mid-2027, which together with Stage 2 will double production capacity to 8.5 million tons per year, positioning BHP as a major global potash producer.