Cameco Corp

Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta have all raised their capital expenditure guidance again, signaling continued aggressive investment in AI infrastructure. Alphabet lifted its 2026 capex forecast to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion, up from $180 billion to $190 billion, while Amazon increased its 2025 outlook from $200 billion to $220 billion, and Meta is issuing new debt to fund additional AI spending. This spending surge benefits not only chipmakers like Nvidia but also indirect players such as Vertiv, GE Vernova, and especially uranium producer Cameco, which supplies fuel for nuclear power plants increasingly used to power AI data centers. Cameco sold 33 million pounds of uranium last year, holds a 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric, and reported revenue of $3.5 billion with adjusted net earnings of $627 million. Analysts maintain a strong buy rating on Cameco with an average price target of $125.25, nearly 30% above its current price.

Among five nuclear stocks driving market enthusiasm, only Cameco and Centrus Energy sell nuclear fuel today, while Oklo, NuScale Power, and Nano Nuclear Energy remain pre-commercial developers with a combined market value of about $12 billion against roughly $12 million in trailing revenue. Cameco, with a market value of about $41 billion, booked about $2.5 billion in trailing-12-month revenue and raised its full-year outlook for realized uranium prices and revenue despite second-quarter production disruptions. Centrus Energy, valued at about $3.6 billion, generated about $474 million in trailing revenue and operates America's first facility licensed to produce high-assay low-enriched uranium, the fuel most advanced reactor designs require. The three developers hold billions in cash and are pursuing regulatory milestones and first commercial deployments, with Oklo reporting a first-half net loss of $81.6 million on $1.2 million in second-quarter revenue, NuScale holding the first NRC-certified small modular reactor design but only $10.7 million in trailing sales, and Nano Nuclear yet to record any revenue. The sell-off has pushed NuScale about 83% below its 52-week high, Oklo about 77% below, and Nano Nuclear about 70% below, while Cameco sits about 29% below its peak.

Cameco Corporation maintained its 2026 production outlook of 19.5 million to 21.5 million pounds of U3O8 despite temporary operational disruptions at its Northern Saskatchewan mines. CEO Timothy Gitzel noted that spring road conditions caused unplanned disruptions at Key Lake and McArthur River during the quarter, and a two-week production suspension at Cigar Lake occurred after quarter end, but these issues have been addressed with no impact on the annual plan. The company also disclosed that Westinghouse Electric Company has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement for a proposed initial public offering, while providing extensive new details on its AP1000 reactor pipeline, including 91 identified opportunities globally and a $17.5 billion conditional commitment from the U.S. Department of Energy for long-lead items. Average realized uranium prices increased during the quarter, and management highlighted that long-term uranium prices have reached decade highs, with market-related contracts now showing floor prices in the high 70s and ceiling prices around 160.

Cameco maintained its 2026 production outlook of 19.5 million to 21.5 million pounds of U3O8 despite weather-related disruptions at Key Lake and McArthur River and a temporary suspension at Cigar Lake. CEO Tim Gitzel said the company is on track with its expectations, citing growing support for nuclear energy, while long-term uranium prices reached decade highs and contracting activity increased. Cameco has contracts for average annual deliveries of more than 28 million pounds over the next five years and remains selective on additional commitments. Westinghouse reported a pipeline of 91 AP1000 reactor opportunities, supported by a potential $17.5 billion U.S. Department of Energy financing commitment. Management said standardized reactor designs and new construction could create recurring demand across its uranium, conversion, enrichment and nuclear-services businesses.

Uranium Energy shares have fallen 50% from their early 2026 peak, tracking a decline in uranium spot prices. The company held 1.46 million pounds of uranium at the end of its fiscal third quarter of 2026, making its stock a proxy for the commodity. While spot prices have dropped, long-term contracted uranium prices have continued to rise as nuclear power producers lock in fuel supplies. Cameco, one of the world's largest uranium producers, has warned that demand will outstrip supply in the early 2030s, which could boost uranium prices and the value of Uranium Energy's inventory. The stock remains highly volatile and suited only for investors with a strong conviction in a coming uranium supply shortfall.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in May 2025 aiming to expand U.S. nuclear power capacity from 100 gigawatts to 400 gigawatts by 2050. The order seeks to accelerate regulatory and financing support for both established nuclear operators and emerging technologies like small modular reactors. Constellation Energy has already received a $1 billion government loan tied to its nuclear ambitions, while NuScale Power recently won approval for a higher-capacity reactor design and is working with a Romanian utility and the Tennessee Valley Authority on potential first deployments. Cameco and Brookfield Renewable offer indirect exposure through uranium supply and shared ownership of Westinghouse, respectively. Power demand is projected to grow 60% over the next 20 years, up from 10% in the prior two decades, intensifying the push for reliable, carbon-free baseload generation.

Chronometer Partners Chief Investment Officer Matthew Smith argues that surging power demand from artificial intelligence will turn natural gas into the most important fuel in the United States, creating a looming supply crunch and investment opportunity. Smith projects U.S. natural gas exports will climb from 15 billion cubic feet per day to 35 billion cubic feet per day by the end of 2030, while a daily deficit of 5 billion cubic feet could emerge before AI demand fully hits. He recommends natural gas producers Expand Energy and Range Resources for their ability to quickly ramp production, as well as nuclear stock Cameco and solar names XPLR Infrastructure and Clearway Energy as beneficiaries of the broader energy squeeze. Natural gas currently accounts for over 40% of U.S. power generation, and Smith sees structural tightness materializing by 2027 to 2028.

The Motley Fool projects that a $5,000 investment in Constellation Energy could grow to roughly $11,500 by 2036, while the same amount in Cameco could reach about $7,400 under a base-case scenario. Constellation Energy, the largest U.S. nuclear operator, expects base earnings per share to grow at an annualized rate of more than 20% from 2026 through 2029, with growth of more than 10% in each of the three-year periods after 2029. Using the midpoint of its 2026 base earnings guidance of $6.70 per share, those targets would lift base EPS to about $22.56 by 2036, and applying a conservative 18 times earnings multiple yields a share price near $580. Cameco, a major uranium producer with a 49% stake in Westinghouse, is seen growing EPS from an estimated $1.66 in 2026 to about $5.16 by 2036 under a 12% annual growth assumption, and at 25 times earnings the stock could trade near $129. The analysis notes risks including Constellation's integration of Calpine and nuclear restart challenges, as well as Cameco's production disruptions and potential valuation compression.

Bank of America has cut 32 price objectives across its commodities coverage and lowered 2026 estimates for 31 of the 33 companies it tracks, yet uranium stands out as its top conviction call with 23% upside versus spot. The firm sees Cameco as its top uranium pick, citing leverage to higher realized prices, a solid balance sheet, and roughly 48% upside to its price target, while also flagging the benefit of Cameco's 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric Company amid the U.S. nuclear buildout. In precious metals, BofA trimmed its 2026 gold forecast by 14% to $4,360 an ounce and added Pan American Silver as a new top pick, pointing to 56% potential upside. Freeport-McMoRan remains the top base metals pick with about 35% upside, while aluminum forecasts were cut materially, leaving little room for gains.

Nuclear energy stocks have slumped in the first half of 2026 after a strong 2025, with advanced reactor start-ups Oklo and NuScale Power down 27% and 30% year to date, respectively, while uranium miner Cameco is up 7% year to date but down 27% from its February peak. Oklo and NuScale have experienced larger price swings due to long implementation timelines for their technologies, with Oklo down 73% from its 52-week high and NuScale down 83%. Cameco, a mature company with high-grade mines in Canada and a 49% stake in Westinghouse, is positioned to benefit more immediately from growing uranium demand and the nuclear build-out. The long-term industry tailwinds remain in place, but advanced reactor technologies are not expected to operate at commercial scale until the 2030s.

Nuclear power has become a strategically vital energy sector, driven by AI electricity demand and a push to quadruple U.S. nuclear capacity to 400 GWe by 2050. Constellation Energy, the largest U.S. private power producer with a 55 GW fleet, has locked in power-purchase agreements with Microsoft, Meta, and CyrusOne, and trades at $243 against a $360.24 Wall Street target. Cameco, the world's largest publicly traded uranium miner, beat Q1 estimates by 38%, holds 230 million pounds under long-term contracts, and partners with Brookfield on at least $80 billion in AP1000 reactor deployments. Oklo, the only small modular reactor developer with both a site use permit and secured fuel, has roughly 14 GW in customer agreements anchored by a 12 GW deal with Switch, though it remains pre-revenue with a $73.6 million net loss in fiscal 2024.

RBC Capital raised its price target on Cameco Corporation to C$175 from C$160 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing strengthening uranium market fundamentals and growing global nuclear energy demand. The firm highlighted robust purchasing by sovereign entities and utilities, contract pricing above public reports, and supportive U.S. and Canadian policies for reactor deployment. Separately, Cameco and Orano Canada agreed to acquire Tepco Resources' 5% stake in the Cigar Lake Joint Venture, which will increase Cameco's ownership in the high-grade Saskatchewan uranium mine to approximately 57.4%. Cameco's portion of the acquisition is valued at about $115.75 million and is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026 pending regulatory approvals.

Cameco has closed the acquisition of TEPCO Resources Inc.'s 5% participating interest in the Cigar Lake Joint Venture, increasing its ownership stake in the Cigar Lake uranium mine in northern Saskatchewan by 2.871 percentage points to 57.418%. Orano Canada Inc. also participated in the acquisition, raising its share by 2.129 percentage points to 42.582%. The transaction was previously announced on June 1, 2026.

Cameco Corporation's adjusted EBITDA rose 44% year over year to CAD 509 million in the first quarter of 2026, driven by uranium price strength and contributions from Westinghouse. The uranium segment saw adjusted EBITDA surge 48% to CAD 423 million on a 15% revenue increase, while fuel services adjusted EBITDA declined 28% to CAD 54 million due to lower realized prices and higher costs. Westinghouse contributed adjusted EBITDA of CAD 122 million, up 33%, and management expects its full-year 2026 share of Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA to be between $370 million and $430 million. The company's 2025 full-year adjusted EBITDA had risen 26% to CAD 1.93 billion, with Westinghouse up 61% to CAD 780 million.

Nuclear energy is emerging as the next major investment theme driven by surging AI power demand. Cameco captures the entire nuclear fuel chain from mining to enrichment and fuel fabrication, and holds a 49% stake in reactor builder Westinghouse Electric, which recently secured an $80 billion partnership with the U.S. government. BWX Technologies is the exclusive manufacturer of nuclear reactors for the U.S. Navy's submarines and aircraft carriers, with its backlog surging 75% year over year to $8.6 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Vistra owns the second-largest nuclear fleet in the U.S. and has signed two 20-year power purchase agreements with Meta and Amazon Web Services for nearly 3.8 gigawatts of nuclear capacity, while also acquiring Cogentrix for $4 billion to expand its natural gas fleet to 26 gigawatts.

The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Dominance Financing has issued a conditional commitment for up to US$17.5 billion in loans to support Westinghouse's purchase of long-lead items for as many as 10 AP1000 nuclear reactors in the United States. This move strengthens the nuclear reactor supply chain and is particularly important for Cameco, which owns 49% of Westinghouse and is closely tied to expanding global reactor deployment. The loan commitment reinforces the nuclear supply chain and potentially improves visibility around future reactor builds, a key medium-term catalyst for Cameco's contracting and Westinghouse-related earnings. In the near term, Cameco's drivers remain grounded in existing long-term contracts, recent margin improvement, and production recovery after Saskatchewan flooding disruption, while the stock's rich earnings multiple and relatively new management team remain risk flags. The DOE support may shift sentiment but does not remove execution or valuation risk.

The AI boom is shifting investment focus from semiconductors to the power sector, as data centers require massive electricity. The power generation industry, valued at $1.3 trillion today, is expected to grow to $2.2 trillion by 2034, driven by hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta signing long-term power purchase agreements. Constellation Energy has a 20-year deal with Microsoft to restart a unit at Three Mile Island, investing $1.6 billion, and a separate 20-year pact with Meta for 1.21 gigawatts of nuclear power. Talen Energy partnered with Amazon for up to 1.9 gigawatts from its Susquehanna plant, located adjacent to Amazon's data center. Cameco Corp, a uranium supplier, stands to benefit from rising nuclear fuel demand. Quanta Services, a major transmission infrastructure contractor, is positioned to capture grid interconnection needs. Electrical equipment makers Eaton Corp, Schneider Electric, and GE Vernova supply critical hardware and systems for power generation and distribution. Risks include cyclical spending, potential overbuilding, and concentration on a few large tech customers.

Cameco released its 2025 Sustainability Report, detailing progress on environmental, social, and governance initiatives. Highlights include the development of nine site-specific climate adaptation plans, $292 million procured from northern-owned companies, and a greater than 20% reduction in the combined Total Recordable Injury Rate since 2023. At its northern Saskatchewan operations, 49% of the workforce self-identified as Indigenous, and the employee giving campaign donated more than $1 million to charities. The report incorporates SASB performance indicators and continues progress toward integrating TCFD recommendations, with third-party limited assurance obtained on selected indicators.

The Trump administration has conditionally committed $17.5 billion in low-interest loan facilities to help utilities finance equipment orders for up to 10 Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear reactors. The loans from the U.S. Department of Energy are intended to cover long-lead items and could accelerate construction and commercial operations by up to three years, with a goal of having 10 reactors under construction by 2030. Eligible utility and energy company partners would form partnerships with Westinghouse and must have at least one potential reactor site, primarily locations with an existing reactor or large power plant or sites that have done previous licensing work with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Westinghouse Electric CEO Dan Sumner told The Wall Street Journal he hopes new AP1000 reactors can come online starting in 2035. Westinghouse is owned by Brookfield Asset Management and Canadian uranium producer Cameco.

The nuclear power industry is staging a comeback as reality sets in that renewables alone cannot meet surging electricity demand, especially from AI data centers. Cameco, a Canada-based integrated uranium supplier with mining, refining, enrichment, and spent fuel storage operations, is poised to benefit as worldwide annual uranium revenue is on pace to more than double by 2033. GE Vernova, through a partnership with Hitachi, is expanding into nuclear with its BWRX-300 small modular reactor, with installation work underway and service expected by 2030, while a government-commissioned outlook projects nearly 500 SMRs built by 2050. Vistra, a utility with 44,000 megawatts of capacity, has signed power purchase agreements with Meta Platforms and Amazon to develop new nuclear capacity, and has grown annual revenue from $12.1 billion to $17.7 billion while reducing its share count by about 30% since 2021.

Cameco currently appears the more appealing uranium stock compared to Centrus Energy based on recent price performance and earnings growth estimates, according to a Zacks Investment Research analysis. Cameco shares have appreciated 23% over the past six months, while Centrus Energy shares have declined 18.4%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco's 2026 earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 17.5%, with a further 58.7% rise projected for 2027. In contrast, Centrus Energy's 2026 earnings estimate points to a 29.7% decline, with a slight 0.14% dip expected in 2027. Both stocks carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), but Cameco's stronger momentum and growth outlook give it the edge despite a slightly higher forward price-to-earnings multiple of 63.08X versus Centrus Energy's forward sales multiple of 62.25X.

Cameco stock could be 15% undervalued relative to a popular fair value estimate of CA$177.83, with shares currently trading at CA$151.07. The uranium and nuclear services company has posted a 61.28% total shareholder return over the past year and a more than fivefold return over five years. The bullish narrative is driven by expectations of faster revenue growth, sharply higher margins, and a rich future earnings multiple, supported by global nuclear construction, government policy support, net-zero mandates, and energy security concerns. However, the current price-to-earnings ratio of 101.1 times is significantly above the Canadian oil and gas industry average of 24.5 times, the peer average of 20.9 times, and a fair ratio estimate of 26.6 times, pointing to meaningful valuation risk if sentiment cools.

Cameco is locking in multi-year uranium supply agreements as utility operators seek long-term nuclear fuel contracts to meet rising power demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles. The company, which operates across uranium mining and fuel services, is positioned as a key supplier to global clean energy projects focused on reliable baseload power. The shift toward nuclear-heavy grids pushes utilities to think in terms of decades, favoring Cameco's contract-focused business model where volumes and pricing are increasingly tied to multiyear agreements rather than short-term spot markets. Competition from other uranium suppliers such as Kazatomprom and Orano could influence pricing and margins, while delays or cancellations of large reactor projects tied to data-center or EV demand may affect contracted volumes. Investors are watching how quickly utilities convert growing baseload power needs into signed nuclear fuel contracts and whether Cameco discloses additional long-term agreements or volume commitments.

Cameco Corporation's uranium contract portfolio requires average annual deliveries of more than 28 million pounds per year over the next five years as of March 31, 2026, providing significant revenue visibility and cash-flow stability. The company has executed contracts with 39 customers worldwide, with its five largest customers accounting for approximately 56% of total contractual commitments. Most contracts contain market-related pricing mechanisms, including exposure to uranium spot prices and long-term reference prices, allowing Cameco to benefit from rising markets while maintaining downside protection. Management expects contractual commitments to remain above the portfolio average during the 2026-2028 period before moderating somewhat in 2029 and 2030. By comparison, peer Energy Fuels has six uranium sales contracts covering 2026 to 2032 with 3.36 million pounds of committed base sales, while Denison Mines has committed 1.35 million pounds for delivery between the second quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2027 and is in discussions for an additional 8 million pounds.