BigBearai Holdings Inc

BigBear.ai Holdings sees changing global trade and mobility patterns as a potential growth engine for its applied AI solutions. The company's CargoSeer platform, which combines X-ray imagery, import-export documents and structured trade data, recently signed a five-year commercial deployment agreement in El Salvador following a successful 12-month pilot, marking its first deployment in Central America. Management said the El Salvador deployment is already attracting interest from customs agencies elsewhere, and the company reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance of $135-$165 million. Second-quarter 2026 revenues rose 13% year over year to $36.7 million, gross margin expanded 781 basis points to 32.8%, and backlog increased 9% from 2025-end to $269.6 million. BigBear.ai faces competition from Palantir Technologies and Parsons Corporation in AI-driven trade, border security and supply-chain solutions.

BigBear.ai Holdings reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million while reporting second-quarter revenue of $36.7 million, a 13% year-over-year increase driven by its generative AI platforms and products. Gross margin improved to 32.8%, up 781 basis points from the prior year, and the company ended the quarter with $410 million in cash and investments and a backlog of $270 million. CEO Kevin McAleenan said the company won more than 20 new contracts in the quarter and is accelerating its search for accretive M&A targets, calling it a time to be aggressive. The company also fully integrated its recent acquisitions of Ask Sage and CargoSeer, with CargoSeer signing a five-year commercial deployment agreement in El Salvador. Net loss for the quarter was $25.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA was negative $11.6 million, reflecting increased investment in sales and research and development.

C3.ai reported a sharp revenue decline in 2026 alongside the temporary step-down and subsequent return of CEO Tom Siebel, while extending its enterprise AI collaboration with Shell. The multi-year extension reinforces C3.ai's relevance in complex industrial AI deployments, showing major customers still commit to its platform even as competition from BigBear.ai intensifies. Siebel's return may help stabilize operations, but the revenue trend remains the key near-term swing factor for the stock's risk-reward. The company's narrative projects $269.8 million revenue and $32.7 million earnings by 2029, requiring 2.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $503 million earnings increase from negative $470.4 million today.

C3.ai and BigBear.ai have reported contrasting quarterly revenue trends, with C3.ai consistently generating higher overall revenue but experiencing a sharp decline in recent quarters, while BigBear.ai has remained more steady. C3.ai's revenue fell from $108.7 million in the quarter ended April 2025 to $51.6 million in the quarter ended April 2026, a drop attributed to the temporary departure of CEO Tom Siebel for health reasons. BigBear.ai's revenue has been more stable, with first-quarter 2026 revenue of $34.4 million representing only a 1% year-over-year decline, and the company forecasting full-year 2026 revenue between $135 million and $165 million. Investors are watching whether C3.ai can recover under Siebel's return and whether the revenue gap between the two companies will continue to narrow.