Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲
Coal mining concept strengthens in trading, coal price center expected to find support
On August 6, the coal mining concept rose 3.06% during the session. Haohua Energy and Jiangwu Equipment hit the daily limit up, while Huaibei Mining, Jinneng Holding Coal Industry, and Yankuang Energy gained over 5%. A research note from Changjiang Securities pointed out that the coal industry faces a window for capacity reduction in 2026, with effective thermal coal supply expected to decline 1.9% year-on-year to 3.806 billion tonnes. Short-term supply is under pressure, while policy efforts to curb excessive competition through overproduction checks are helping stabilize coal prices. In the first half of 2026, the average thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao Port rose 13.2% year-on-year to 767 yuan per tonne. A separate note from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities noted that the coal industry's supply-demand structure is undergoing a structural adjustment in 2026. Coal consumption for power generation is expected to grow 3.0% to 2.997 billion tonnes, while coal use in the chemical sector is set to surge 20.0% to 516 million tonnes, becoming the main source of incremental demand. Meanwhile, coal consumption in steel and building materials is expected to remain flat or decline. On the supply side, domestic commercial coal output is forecast to edge up 0.8% to 4.516 billion tonnes, with net imports narrowing to 440 million tonnes. Overall supply is tight, and the industry will enter a destocking cycle, with theoretical inventories projected to fall by 184 million tonnes. The coal price center is expected to find support.