Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲
DRC Export Ban Sparks Nonferrous Metals Rally, Analysts See Limited Lasting Impact
The Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban has ignited a rally in China's nonferrous metals sector, with cobalt and copper stocks surging across the board. On August 7, Hanrui Cobalt jumped 8.53%, Tengyuan Cobalt rose 5.86%, and Huayou Cobalt gained 6.30%; Jiangxi Copper climbed 7.20%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals advanced 5.94%. The move follows the DRC government's order to ban exports of copper and cobalt concentrates, aiming to promote domestic downstream processing. Institutions broadly view this as more of a sentiment shock than a fundamental one. Funeng Futures noted the ban is a reiteration and tightening of existing controls, while Fubao Nonferrous Metals' copper analysis team pointed out that most copper concentrates are already refined domestically, with limited actual export volumes. Listed companies including Zijin Mining, CMOC Group, Huayou Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt all responded that the ban has limited impact on their operations, as their products are mostly blister copper, cathode copper, or cobalt hydroxide, not concentrates. Meanwhile, copper market supply disruptions remain frequent. LME copper inventories fell 24.11% month-on-month in July, while COMEX copper stocks continued to hit record highs. Goldman Sachs expects the copper supply deficit outside the US to surge from 60,000 tonnes to 640,000 tonnes, and Citigroup forecasts London copper could challenge 15,000 dollars per tonne in the next six to twelve months.